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Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Oil And Buffett -- February 14, 2023

When you are in your 90's your horizon is no longer 30 years. No matter what they say.

Semiconductors are for those with at least a 5-year horizon.

Oil is for those with a one-year horizon. Or less.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Link here. At the link, follow the thread.

TSM And Buffett -- February 14, 2023

Investors

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Social media today

Then:

  • 60,060,880 shares
  • $87
  • $5,225,295,560

Today:

  • $98
  • This was basically a $50-stock for most of the period that Buffett would have bought it.
  • So, he doubled his money in five years.

The big question: why did he sell 88% of it rather than all of it.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

From the blog just last month:

Why in the world does Buffett invest in companies that make up less than 1% of his entire portfolio, which is the vast majority of his holdings -- companies that make up less than 1% of his entire portfolio.

Link here. It took three screenshots to get his entire portfolio, and this does not include the companies he owns outright. 

China To Become Sole Lead Operator Of One Of Iraq's Largest Oil Fields -- February 14, 2023

Again, one has to ask: how did America that fought two wars to liberate Kuwait and Iraq let this field "go to" China. I assume we were distracted by some weather balloons and/or more concerned about advancing social agendas in diplomatic and military circles than in safeguarding the country. But I digress. It is what it is.  

But look at this: "China" is now the sole lead operator of a giant Iraqi oilfield estimated to hold 43 billion bbls of recoverable oil. That's recoverable oil, not oil-in-place. 

For perspective, if that's possible, back in 2019, it was estimated that Saudi Arabia held upwards of 275 billion bbls of recoverable oil. Link here.

Link here.

A Question For Mineral Owners In North Dakota -- February 14, 2023

Updates

February 15, 2023,  a mineral own responds:

Our experience has been that Companies will drill in a pool without a division order once the participation interests have been confirmed for that pool via prior wells, etc. 

Original Post

A mineral owner / reader asked me whether oil companies (operators) can drill a well in North Dakota without issuing division orders.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

That's a very, very interesting question. I don't know the definitive answer, but I believe I'm 99% correct in saying that some companies have notified mineral owners that once "things are established" (my words, not theirs), some operators will commence drilling without signed division orders for future wells.

I heard that from one reader with regard to one company and have never verified it but just out of curiosity, I will post it on the blog and see if anyone responds.
So, I'm curious -- do any readers have any experience in this regard?  

I believe the blog allows readers to reply anonymously. In addition, my personal e-mail address is available somewhere on the blog.

********************************
For The Archives -- Nothing About The Bakken

I've mentioned many times my love / hate relationship with The New Yorker. A year or so ago, I started a new subscription after a lapse of several years. The "introductory" rate was about zero dollars for six months. It was ridiculous not to take out a new subscription. 

Then, some months ago, I was offered to renew the subscription at pretty much the going rate, which is very, very expensive by my standards, but not as expensive as organic eggs. The subscription is $169, if I recall correctly, for one year, an issue every two weeks.

I consider myself lucky if there is more than one article / one essay in any given issue that I might read, much less enjoy. Last week there were none. But when there is an article that I enjoy, it pays for the subscription.

This week, there was such an article. The articles in The New Yorker are incredibly long, generally ten to twelve pages. This article, on Austin, Texas, was sixteen pages. I have six more pages to read. 

It's an incredible article written by a writer who has written and lived around the world, and currently writes for Texas Monthly

Three takeaways.

I did not know Austin, Texas is now the eleventh largest city in America (needs to be fact-checked).

I had forgotten that Apple, Inc., has a campus in Austin.

There's a reason Palantir, headquartered in Austin, turned a profit for the first time in its history this past quarter.

*****************************
A Musical Interlude

It's impossible to not listen to music while reading an article about Austin, Texas. The nice thing about that: Austin, Texas, allows you to listen to any genre one wants, except perhaps Bach or Beethoven. 
 

Current Active Drilling Rig List -- North Dakota -- Bakken -- February 14, 2023

Link here.

Bowline Energy LLC

SANDERS N 150-100-9-10-6H

NWNW 9-150N-100W

MCK

36947

BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP

GLADSTONE 6-1-13MBH

NENW 13-153N-97W

MCK

31211

BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP

LILLIBRIDGE 1C MBH

SESW 23-150N-96W

MCK

35018

BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP

Boxstone 1A TFH-ULW

LOT4 6-149N-96W

MCK

37922

CHALLENGER POINT ENERGY, LLC

Jacobsen 11-6

NWNW 6-162N-90W

BRK

39571

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Meadowlark 4-6HSL

SESW 31-146N-95W

DUN

39241

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Meadowlark FIU 10-6H

SESE 31-146N-95W

DUN

39305

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Bice Federal 9-32H1

SWSW 32-146N-95W

DUN

39426

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Edward 2-23HSL1

SWSE 23-146N-97W

DUN

39454

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Brangus Federal 9-11H1

NESW 14-153N-94W

MCK

37950

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Charolais South Federal 16-10HSL1

NESW 14-153N-94W

MCK

37958

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

Jersey Federal 18-6H

SENE 6-153N-93W

MTL

27880

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

CLYDE HAUGE 5-13H

SESE 12-155N-97W

WIL

39176

CRESCENT POINT ENERGY U.S. CORP.

CPEUSC Matilda May 4-29-32-158N-100W-MBH

SWSE 20-158N-100W

WIL

39391

EAGLE OPERATING, INC.

V-M #5-7

SWNE 5-158N-86W

REN

39436

ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATION

Right 148-93-05D-06H-LL

NESE 5-148N-93W

DUN

38116

ENERPLUS RESOURCES USA CORPORATION

LK Bice 147-96-6-31-3H

LOT7 6-147N-96W

DUN

39146

GRAYSON MILL OPERATING, LLC

Reidle 6-3F 3H

LOT4 6-151N-104W

MCK

39231

GRAYSON MILL OPERATING, LLC

Porter 26-35 3H

SWSE 23-151N-101W

MCK

39266

GRAYSON MILL OPERATING, LLC

CHARLES 3-10 3H

LOT4 3-154N-101W

WIL

39531

HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC

EN-State B- 155-93-0916H-6

SWSE 4-155N-93W

MTL

38253

HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC

RS-STATE D- 155-92-0203H-9

NESE 2-155N-92W

MTL

39080

HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC

RS-F Armour- 156-92-1224H-4

SWSE 1-156N-92W

MTL

39154

HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC

GO-TONG TRUST A- 157-96-2032H-3

NENW 20-157N-96W

WIL

39291

HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC

SC-JW Hamilton- 153-99-1314H-9

SENE 13-153N-99W

WIL

39308

HUNT OIL COMPANY

BLUE RIDGE 159-100-5-8H 3

LOT2 5-159N-100W

WIL

39427

KRAKEN OPERATING, LLC

Sidney 32-29 #3H

LOT4 5-158N-99W

WIL

38405

KRAKEN OPERATING, LLC

Orbit 24-13-12 #3TFH

NWNE 25-159N-99W

WIL

39440

KRAKEN OPERATING, LLC

Ricky-Lee LE 18-7-6 #11H

NWNW 20-155N-103W

WIL

39491

LIBERTY RESOURCES MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC

Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-3MBHX

SWNW 16-158N-93W

MTL

39173

LIME ROCK RESOURCES III-A, L.P.

STATE B 3-25-36H-143-97

SESE 24-143N-97W

DUN

37841

MARATHON OIL COMPANY

OTT USA 44-7TFH

NENE 18-146N-94W

DUN

38021

MARATHON OIL COMPANY

KNOX 24-31TFH

SENW 6-145N-94W

DUN

39353

MARATHON OIL COMPANY

BETH 24-20TFH

NENW 29-146N-94W

DUN

39375

OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC

Dahl E Federal 5301 13-14 2B

SWSE 11-153N-101W

MCK

38770

OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC

Bergem 5199 43-33 6T

SWSE 33-151N-99W

MCK

39053

OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC

Osprey 5401 44-23 5BX

SESE 23-154N-101W

WIL

39323

OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC

Ledahl 5402 42-33 3B

SESW 33-154N-102W

WIL

39482

OVINTIV USA INC.

CLEAR CREEK FEDERAL 152-97-36-25-8H

SESW 36-152N-97W

MCK

38875

OVINTIV USA INC.

ROLFSRUD 152-96-32-29-5H

SESE 32-152N-96W

MCK

39191

PETRO-HUNT DAKOTA, LLC

Mongoose 149-102-8C-5-4H

SESW 8-149N-102W

MCK

39338

SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.

MOLE 4-20TFH

NWNW 29-151N-92W

MTL

33902

SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.

Loon Federal 3-24-25H

NWNE 24-152N-92W

MTL

37849

SOGC, INC.

Grasslands Federal 14-15-2H

NESW 13-147N-98W

MCK

38633

STEPHENS WILLISTON, LLC DBA SEG WILLISTON, LLC

Gernand 13X-32D

NWSW 32-156N-90W

MTL

39314

WPX ENERGY WILLISTON, LLC

Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13HA

SESE 8-149N-92W

DUN

39539

WPX ENERGY WILLISTON, LLC

Pennington 16-15-14HZ

SWSE 8-152N-92W

MTL

39169