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Friday, February 10, 2023

The WPX Samuel Packineau Wells

The wells:

Parent wells in the area:

  • 21232, IA/474, WPX, Fox 14-8H, Mandaree, t1/12; cum 398K 10/22; waiting to see if there is evidence of a halo effect;
  • 18564, 1,004, WPX, Clara 14-17H, Mandaree, t5/10; cum 434K 12/22; halo effect here:
BAKKEN4-20153080618259360688426773592
BAKKEN3-20153162596190508468685375223
BAKKEN2-20152811211110756492116259699157
BAKKEN1-201531128221283289081329710488801
BAKKEN12-20143116603167251494017217126242181
BAKKEN11-2014217687751111163797237623176
BAKKEN10-20149236180133424412112
BAKKEN9-201430867861157989958491
BAKKEN8-2014311519154167214121057118
BAKKEN7-20143112331225278115011500
BAKKEN6-2014301487162261420181514223
BAKKEN5-201431171015805861344575478
BAKKEN4-201430172017327551489111549
BAKKEN3-2014311858209210972086177235
BAKKEN2-2014288307514918166180
BAKKEN1-2014311368125352421371536245
BAKKEN12-201331140814665021881143981

  • 38736, drl/A, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB, Mandaree, t--; cum 92K 12/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022313608536212528236785367850
BAKKEN11-20223040811409801948442030420300
BAKKEN10-20223115540151071187215551155510

    • 38603, drl/A, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8AW, Mandaree, t--; cum 72K 12/22;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223129945300372545932017320170
    BAKKEN11-20223031763318391885032644326440
    BAKKEN10-2022311011498318758720072000
    • 38604, drl/A, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8AX, Mandaree, t--; cum 28K 12/22;
    • 38602, drl/A, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8A, Mandaree, t--; cum 82K 12/22;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223130502306481589331040310400
    BAKKEN11-20223040382404412077442427424270
    BAKKEN10-202231115151119310013977097700
    •  38858, drl/A, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HIL, Mandaree, t--; cum 109K 12/22;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223135023350901801433970339700
    BAKKEN11-20223053562536466683651704517040
    BAKKEN10-20223119915193451490716443164430

    Updating A Young Enerplus Antelope Well That Has Is Trending Toward Three-Quarters Of A Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative; Only Four Years Old -- February 10, 2023

    The well:

    • 31774, 5,058, Enerplus / Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-27A-34-16H, Antelope, t7/18; cum 668K 8/21; cum 720K 12/22;

    Initial production:

    SANISH1-201930309373064220592707625395311816
    SANISH12-201831502425019426772879655842429261
    SANISH11-201819237182370116934277531503012602
    SANISH10-201831622856223355956864285612330017
    SANISH9-201830503575088155448689445338015111
    SANISH8-201831960459618370073925397253819688
    SANISH7-201822612346033883791824931667665537

    2020:

    SANISH11-20203072507142466826385191351904
    SANISH10-2020311049010557564228943218341834
    SANISH9-2020822742107109947663580310
    SANISH8-20204838106951027012230150

    Recent:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    SANISH12-2022282281237643101132349633329
    SANISH11-2022292747269427561100852782308
    SANISH10-202228312231533627975554921276
    SANISH9-2022303898391856751142651562618
    SANISH8-2022315387550874901216142423800
    SANISH7-202221333828475326835712352442
    SANISH6-20220000000
    SANISH5-2022004050000
    SANISH4-20220000000
    SANISH3-2022203306329137281638789452370
    SANISH2-20222740233944371718308105942722
    SANISH1-20222854425465365025630139395706

    Kraken King Wells In Oliver Oil Field

    The wells:

    • 39021, F/A, Kraken, King LE 8-5-32 11H, Oliver, t--; cum 70K 12/22;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223031057310145433323892194994065
    BAKKEN11-20223037099371287287832300291713104
    BAKKEN10-2022422602131624322272211953

    39022, F/A, Kraken, King 8-5-32 4H, Oliver, t--; cum 68K 12/22;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223030228301876744225374207094317
    BAKKEN11-20223036213362227548931195281742997
    BAKKEN10-2022418741767497318881871656

    39023, F/A, Kraken, King 8-5-32 3H, Oliver, t--; cum 64K 12/22;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20222725921259005162821085172093587
    BAKKEN11-20223036243362357198129595267282844
    BAKKEN10-2022315801490422215371521348

    The Hess GO-Johnson Wells In Wheelock

    Parent well: PA

    • 18931, 1,860, Hess, Johnson 15-35H, Wheelock, t8/10; cum 219K 5/20;

    Starting to report.

    • 38485, F/A, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-3, Wheelock, t--; cum 122K 12/22; initial production:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20223010029100531995448367442934074
    BAKKEN11-2022301345013415236943317132928243
    BAKKEN10-2022311324313270284942615225744408
    BAKKEN9-2022301853318558390614093940375564
    BAKKEN8-2022271681316790372063504134492549
    BAKKEN7-202231326683261047570689563251436442
    BAKKEN6-202271680716677217518881138884993

     

    a

    Whoo-hoo! The CLR LCU Foster Wells Are Starting To Report -- February 10, 2023

    The CLR Long Creek Unit, with its 60 wells, is tracked here.

    Finally, the LCU Foster Federal wells in that unit are starting to report.

    First up:

    • 38201, drl/A, CLR, LCU FFoster Federal 4-28H, Long Creek, t--; cum --; initial report:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-202211001948000
    • 38202, drl/A, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 3-28H1, t--; cum --;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-20221200197300

    38203, drl/A, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 2-28H, t--; cum --; similar;

    Jiu-Jitsu -- Sophia -- Update -- February 10, 2023

    Sophia's first competitive match in north Texas. She won the bronze medal in her heat.

    Nine members (or more) in her class of approximately 40 students medaled at the match last weekend.

    *********************
    Meanwhile, Wrestling in Williston, ND

    Week 6: February 5, 2023 -- February 11, 2023

    The top story: two catastrophic earthquakes hit Turkey / Syria.

    The single best story:
    • The alien-balloon invasion: 
      • US downs three balloons: US east coast (North Carolina); US west coast (Alaska); Canada (Yukon)
      • China claims UFO over its country

    Top story:

    • Joe Biden is still president;

    Top international non-energy story:

    • Biden shoots down a second Chinese balloon
    • Russian-Ukraine war continues

    Top international energy story

    • Russia to cut production by 500,000 bopd.
      • Russia says due to low price; EU sanctions; in fact, something else;

    Top national non-energy story:


    Top national energy story


    Javier Blas:

    Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

    Top North Dakota non-energy story:


    Top North Dakota energy story:


    Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

    Bakken economy:

    Commentary:

    Entertainment:

     

    Six Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- February 10, 2023

    Random thought: the military folks at highest risk right now -- RC-135 air crews in the Pacific theater.

    ******************************
    Back to the Bakken

    Active rigs: 46.

    WTI: $79.72.

    Natural gas: $2.514

    One new permit, #39653:

    • Operator: WPX
    • Field: Moccasin Creek
    • Comments:
      • WPX has a permit for a Stratus well in SWSE 33-148-93; 
        • to be sited 691 FSL and 2531 FEL;

    Six permits renewed:

    • BR (5): four Ole permits, North Fork, McKenzie County; and, one Olebully permit in Bear Den, McKenzie County;
    • Enerplus: a Tegu permit in Antelope oil field, McKenzie County.

    Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

    • 35660, 860, Lime Rock Resources, Jore Yellowstone 1H, North Fork,
    • 38536, 3,133, MRO, Woodrow 31-18H, 

    35660:

    • change of ownership from Abraxas to Lime Rock, September 1, 2022;
    • nine miles southeast of Watford City
    • the second vertical/curve and the fifth lateral of the six wells to be drilled on thee Jore Yellowstone pad;
    • the pad is set up as a 2560-acre standup spacing unit; drilled south into section 2 and 11
    • single MB lateral
    • dates and depth
      • spud: May 5, 2019
      • re-entered: May 22, 2019; through the curve;
      • re-entered: August 28, 2019; lateral was drilled with one lateral assembly;
      • TD: 21,468 on August 31, 2019
      • from surface casing to TD in 20 days
      • lateral drilled in 5.5 days;
    • frack: 8/3/22 - 8/17/22;
      • 11.992 million gallons of water; 90.455% fresh water by mass;
    • minimal production to date;

    38536:

    • TD: 21,565 feet;
    • completed: 2/10/22;
    • drilled successfully in 6.3 drilling days from "spud" (out of surface casing) to TD.
    • test date: 2/12/22
    • oil: 1,452 bbls; 
    • frack
      • 32 stages; 202,094 bbls of water (8.5 million gallons of water)
      • proppant: 10,380,837 lbs;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-2022318964893316084773573570
    BAKKEN11-2022309221929716275781474280
    BAKKEN10-2022319496953417910803076290
    BAKKEN9-2022309152912618051736969760
    BAKKEN8-20223110020998420153795675500
    BAKKEN7-2022311039210384215818477803360
    BAKKEN6-202230121321210423925947590880
    BAKKEN5-2022281135311336247919132871055
    BAKKEN4-202225122641232325394904887450
    BAKKEN3-202231257572578347710187531826384
    BAKKEN2-2022191665316335314791203811682115
    BAKKEN1-20220000000
    BAKKEN12-202120017755790579

    The maps:


    Weekly CDC Seasonal Flu Data -- February 10, 2023

    Weekly CDC seasonal flu data: link here.


    *********************************
    From Yesterday

    Whatever happened to the hysteria: from less than a month ago, January 17, 2023 -- most recent CDC data -- it never happened --

    Covid: ‘Tripledemic’ anxiety has LAUSD parents pleading for mask mandate.

    Many Los Angeles parents are navigating another troubling winter of health worries, as COVID-19, flu cases and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, continue to circulate.
    Among many low-income or multifamily households, a contagious virus threatens both their child and their financial stability.
    A group of families, largely Spanish-speaking parents from East and South Los Angeles, is now asking L.A. Unified for mandatory masking and to re-establish on-campus weekly coronavirus testing.
    They have not yet received a direct response from the district. But at a January 9, 2023, news conference, Supt. Alberto Carvalho took on what he referred to as “misinformation, disinformation, confusion and unwarranted fear.”

    Links today:

    Japan: still not out of the woods.

    US: something worked.

    The Market Today -- The Oil Move -- February 10, 2023

    Updates

    Later, 6:45 p.m. PST: this is a nice link to quickly check prices

    Later, 2:00 p.m. PST: the market is closed; the "oils" held -- no last-minute profit-taking (at least of those I checked) which really, really surprised me. WTI came very, very close to $80. 

    Apparently global oil demand is being driven by demand for jet fuel. If so, it's hard to believe we don't see prices a lot higher than $80. But I digress. 

    Most surprising today. My twitter feed is almost completely energy, and in that arena, almost all oil, some natural gas. Scrolling through my twitter feed just now, and I see no one talking about oil today.

    What are they talking about on "Fast Money" -- the first CNBC show after the market close? They're talking retail sector, the risk of recession, and semi-conductors. 

    Oh, finally, they're talking about energy, specifically oil. It's almost as if no one is paying attention.  

    The final word from one of the panelists: " I would not chase these stocks at this multiple (P/E)."

    • MPC with a P/E of 5.56
    • CVX with a P/E of 9.41.
    • SRE with a P/E of 22.1 and showing "red" over the past six months; absolutely flat since March, 2022. And SRE jumped $4.37 (2.86%) today.

    Time to turn that craziness off. 

    Original Post 

    Is anyone paying attention? Link here.

    Market:

    • CVX: up $3.74; up 2.22%;
    • COP: up $5.02; up 4.57%;
    • PSX: up $4.95; up 4.88%;
    • MPC: up $6.02; up 4.94%; 

    There are several things going on. 

    The two most important things today:

    • sector rotation (some folks are finally getting the message) -- see the link above -- is anyone paying attention?
    • the Russian announcement.

    But having said that, this move today, so far, is much more than most expected. Is it unprecedented? Probably not, but someone much smarter than I with a better grasp of history will have to provide the perspective.

    WTI is getting awful close to $80.

    If oil companies can make record profits with $60-oil, imagine what they can do with $80-oil. And, remember, we're in a recession. A year from now, or at worse, two years from now, we should be coming out of this crippling recession.

    Hopefully we're not in a shooting war with China before then (or ever, for that matter) -- as I'm writing this, it's being reported that Biden shot down a UFO over the state of Alaska.

    Time to move on, but much more could be said.

    Huge Story -- Streaming Wars Update --February 10, 2023

    Themes: link here.

    Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

    Posted earlier today: link here.

    February 9, 2023: huge change; up until now, it's been expected that Disney would buy rest of Hulu that it does not own; in CNBC interview with Bob Iger, the former suggested everything is on the table; not a given that Disney would buy the rest of Hulu; entire conversation suggested Iger not happy with streaming services. Potential buyer of all of Hulu if sold -- really too costly for any company except perhaps Comcast.

    Now, this:

     What was the original story, link here?



    What To Do With All That Free Cash Flow -- Years Ago, Harold Hamm Started Using Free Cash Flow To Cut Debt -- Now That Money Is No Longer Free, It Makes Even More Sense -- February 10, 2023

    Bloombeg beat me to it. I was thinking the same thing yesterday:

    It says something that an oil major leaning in these days means cutting production by only a quarter. BP Plc is something of an outlier among peers. But its course change — shrinking the scope of planned declines in output this decade — was at least in keeping with the broad message of earnings season: With profits booming, investment in oil and gas is going up.

    But this really is nothing like booms of yore, by which I mean over the past 15 years or so. Consider: The five integrated majors — BP, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE — raked in more than a quarter of a trillion dollars of cash flow last year. That’s 40% more than at the prior peak: 2008’s super-spike. Free cash flow, after capital expenditure, was more than double.

    Having shed roughly a fifth of their workforce since 2008, the majors are leaner. But the biggest difference concerns reinvestment versus distributions. Even raised guidance implies capex this year only getting back to 2018 levels (and not in real terms). Whereas the majors used to reinvest $3 or $4 for every dollar of dividends and buybacks, the balance is now even.The majors are finally the cash machines long promised — but they got there mainly by shrinking. They’ll produce less oil and gas in 2023 than 15 years ago. That decline is more pronounced among the Europeans, but even Exxon’s output is lower.

    This is what investors wanted. The US majors, leaning harder into the current upswing, enjoy higher multiples. Yet they haven’t thus far leveraged those to acquire the Europeans, and they also look set to reinvest less this year than in 2019. Such caution prevails despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil and expectations of a tighter oil market — stoked anew by Russia’s threat to cut production.

    BP may be an outlier, but all the majors are grappling with an equity market that prizes barrels today but largely shrugs at those due to appear a decade out.

     --Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion

    ******************************
    Chart of the Day

     

    The picture of how the oil majors divide up their cash flow has flipped. Prior to the pandemic, cash went first to the business, second to the shareholders, and the balance sheet usually took some of the strain. Now, dividends and buybacks enjoy at least equal footing with capital expenditure, and there’s still a lot left over. Using consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg and company guidance, this year might see the majors raise capex by double digits, distribute over $100 billion (again) and still have enough cash flow left over to cut net debt by a third. Or, maybe, buy stuff.