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Friday, February 3, 2023

Wait Until The Wind Turbines Quit Turning — February 3, 2023

Updates
 
February 4, 2023: I don't recall seeing this before -- oil saves the day in New England -- natural gas is running about $2.50 -- amazing.....



The price went to $500 / MWH overnight.

Original Post

Boston: -8. Wind chill: -42. — Midnight, February 4, 2023.

Linkhttps://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/maine-braces-60-wind-chills-arctic-blast-forecast-northeast-rcna68950.
If there was any doubt about just how brutal Friday's conditions were in New England, look no further than New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory, where a wind chill of minus 101 degrees was recorded. 
And it's hardly an isolated case. 
Much of New England is dealing with a dangerous blast of winter. 
And a large swath of the nation, from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic to the U.S.-Canada border is facing extreme weather, too, as blizzards, snow squalls and hurricane-force winds were reported. 
In Southwick, Massachusetts, just outside Springfield, a storm is blamed in the death of an infant who was killed when winds knocked down a tree that fell and struck the vehicle the baby was in. The 23-year-old mother of the infant sustained serious injuries. 
Wind chill, a figure that represents the feels-like temp, reached the triple-digit mark at the nonprofit observatory in North Conway, New Hampshire, at 5:09 p.m., as wind gusts topped 100 mph.

Imagine -- Is Anyone Paying Atttention? February 3, 2023

Updates

February 8, 2023: more of the same --

February 4, 2023: let's add a fifth dot. Link here:

Later, 10:49 p.m. CT: I added a fourth dot.

Link here.

 Original Post

I haven't seen anyone yet connect these three dots. 

Link here.

Link here (highest profit, not revenue -- huge difference).

Gasoline demand:

This Explains Refining Operating Capacity Reported By The EIA In Their Past Few Reports -- February 3, 2023

Think about this -- comparing US refiners and what's going on in the rest of the world, particularly China and Europe.

Link here.

Remember, We're In A Recession -- February 3, 2023

Link here.


Link here

Could it get any better?
  • for the oil investor: making record profits on $6-handle WTI; increased dividend and $75 billion share buyback -- COP; and,
  • for the American consumer: WTI drops 1% today; can't stay above $67

ISO NE: Oil -- 28% Of The Resource Mix -- Coal Doubles From Less Than 1% To 2% -- February 3, 2023

Heavy oil for New England has historically come from the Caribbean and Russia, not from the US. At one time CITCO (Venezuela) was the #1 provider (? -- neeeds to be fact-checked).

An Old XTO Well Shows Second Jump In Production -- February 3, 2023

The XTO FBIR Lawrencee wells are tracked here. In addition, the wells were updated today and posted here.

The well:

  • 20143, 1,794, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26B, Heart Butte, t5/12; cum 428K 12/19; off line as of 12/19; remains off line 1/20; has just returned to production, 11/22; t5/12; cum 490K 11/22; cum 497K 12/22; recent production/ 7K over 12 days extrapolates to 17K over 30 days; full production profile; 17K is greater than the initial production back in 2012; "the theory" says this is not supposed to happen:

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20221269256824673038653492313
BAKKEN11-20222157024991430143
BAKKEN10-20221000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-202274067521122612390
BAKKEN7-2022312825277515071430126050
BAKKEN6-20223024552534993133912180
BAKKEN5-20223125112507737114810430
BAKKEN4-20222921842191661975753129
BAKKEN3-20223128942840932159813330
BAKKEN2-2022282728268875511819920
BAKKEN1-20223129572900996149912760
BAKKEN12-20213129573007971148212420
BAKKEN11-202130299829821303151012930
BAKKEN10-202131318931411011164313800
BAKKEN9-202130310531611024147813580
BAKKEN8-202131342834331246157214390
BAKKEN7-202131254926022253127411760
BAKKEN6-202130268726031029142313050
BAKKEN5-202131295529501165162814940
BAKKEN4-202130327832781269171715740
BAKKEN3-202129308530931217170514560
BAKKEN2-202128335233331312182215740
BAKKEN1-202131418841911639212318240
BAKKEN12-202031520748542398184116880
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20196410580934071570
BAKKEN11-2019302458243192821916380
BAKKEN10-2019312492279694423928350
BAKKEN9-2019302418246895724339680
BAKKEN8-20193126012404102424208820
BAKKEN7-20193128262616118023387770
BAKKEN6-20192319632050965171352883
BAKKEN5-2019211305145555913815120
BAKKEN4-2019302578259598424429710
BAKKEN3-20193127792655105018292230
BAKKEN2-2019282525261594416170294
BAKKEN1-2019282466246996818204880
BAKKEN12-2018312470257498011427710
BAKKEN11-201830298827911111141810370
BAKKEN10-201831300831581240153911380
BAKKEN9-201830289528791226145711730
BAKKEN8-20182424082264113611489190
BAKKEN7-2018211785181271411079150
BAKKEN6-201830278427601084149212000
BAKKEN5-201831266827991112177514720
BAKKEN4-201830286228581113169714050
BAKKEN3-201831287030341142191715320
BAKKEN2-201828279226421077187615180
BAKKEN1-201831306030631135185414760
BAKKEN12-201731323331331269195115660
BAKKEN11-2017302806287910911587834428
BAKKEN10-20173128352875112719361044536
BAKKEN9-2017303035294211702138964882
BAKKEN8-20173132883281112120691615151
BAKKEN7-20172728512955117115911129203
BAKKEN6-20173031023061126017541217255
BAKKEN5-20173133633280134818871438146
BAKKEN4-2017303386339313131971161069
BAKKEN3-201731341034131327187914930
BAKKEN2-20172833553312131719381444132
BAKKEN1-201720223021839241317738347
BAKKEN12-20163033633406123819491448138
BAKKEN11-2016303513355714122490209111
BAKKEN10-2016313747373714612449198372
BAKKEN9-2016303624363014222334202219
BAKKEN8-20163138163861142224702046129
BAKKEN7-2016313850382415832259192830
BAKKEN6-2016303821385415422265193538
BAKKEN5-20163139763978156823011791209
BAKKEN4-20163039163804152222571580388
BAKKEN3-20163142724294156623371506440
BAKKEN2-20162940243972150522711354559
BAKKEN1-20163140154068174626972016283
BAKKEN12-20153149054994176227082076236
BAKKEN11-2015304560448017852724225586
BAKKEN10-2015314946510619732828235971
BAKKEN9-20153049204940199527202304130
BAKKEN8-2015738023828722178120
BAKKEN7-2015314684469619072702230991
BAKKEN6-201530458345531883261023118
BAKKEN5-2015314711475720182635232210
BAKKEN4-201530479047291981259323020
BAKKEN3-2015314623458418782509204076
BAKKEN2-2015284285430018172394196375
BAKKEN1-201531496252571862308612211467
BAKKEN12-201431539158562092340616801328
BAKKEN11-201413201615558321297650491
BAKKEN10-201431499654352078318117861012
BAKKEN9-20143048264328607232192505247
BAKKEN8-201431562557197960349120631305
BAKKEN7-20142948774930273852534825304
BAKKEN6-2014305326517621155617546532
BAKKEN5-201431569156622284402315862314
BAKKEN4-201430579355752289519839441134
BAKKEN3-201431686867812766620144761601
BAKKEN2-20145142313306659360871
BAKKEN1-20142139074357161024961660732
BAKKEN12-201331625960922429815616776355
BAKKEN11-20133060736020239576753427213
BAKKEN10-201331608861302383771907596
BAKKEN9-201330609260802405768707567
BAKKEN8-20133164516471260181921527916
BAKKEN7-201331655065122472908919047061
BAKKEN6-201330638662842435911721506847
BAKKEN5-2013311017410332458313276161611536
BAKKEN4-2013301175411708517614893014773
BAKKEN3-20131327752625118037992673408
BAKKEN2-2013267090714828349146968938
BAKKEN1-20132990959227354911714111589
BAKKEN12-20123112958128594889144979914336
BAKKEN11-20122257406020175957685095199
BAKKEN10-20123181018100244349885104416
BAKKEN9-20123083588313268253236964567
BAKKEN8-20123111104109773259849213087122
BAKKEN7-20123113796141135017524726832502
BAKKEN6-201230169171671371161075345816112
BAKKEN5-20123114752142391645512507121211249