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Tuesday, January 17, 2023

The Headline Suggests Sooner Than Later; The Story Says "As Early As 2024" -- A "Life Time” In The Oil Business -- January 17, 2023

This will be a most interesting story to follow. 

The "talking points": 

Looking at the graphics below, an increase of 500,000 bopd seems to be way more than enough. I'll take the story with a grain of salt. 

Last paragraph in the article

According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production is expected to have averaged 11.7 million bpd in 2022 and will average 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019.

US field production of crude oil, EAI and US crude oil exports (does not include refined products): 




Let's See If This Analyst's Forecast Ages Well -- January 17, 2023

Updates

January 25, 2023: that didn't take long. LOL.

January 22, 2023: global upstream to increase a whopping twelve percent in 2023. Think SLB?

January 21, 2023: update. 

Original Post 

This will be a most interesting story to follow. 

The "talking points": 

I respectfully disagree. Maybe someday I'll explain why.

For now, this will do: "production follows price." 

But right or wrong, for an investor, it really does not matter. It's all very, very bullish. 

And don't forget, the Biden administration official energy policy is "no more drilling." 

Re-Posting North Dakota Hydrogen Hub Stories -- January 17, 2023

 

Earlier today, RBN Energy had an update on US "hydrogen projects. I mentioned that I had not seen North Dakota mentioned in the RBN Energy article. When I went back and read it again, more closely, North Dakota was mentioned. The two links below have been previously posted. Here and here.

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North Dakota  Hydrogen Hub

Two stories.  

From natural gas intelligencelink here.

In June 2021, Mitsubishi Power Americas Inc. inked a deal with Bakken Energy to develop a regional hydrogen hub in North Dakota. Gov. Doug Burgum last October then said the state, as well as Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin, would link arms with Mitsubishi and Bismarck, ND-based Bakken Energy to develop an H2Hub using funds designated to the U.S. Department of Energy under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. 

“For Bakken Energy, and our Heartland Hydrogen Hub, it is all about making clean hydrogen abundant and affordable,” said Bakken Energy CEO Mike Hopkins. 

Bakken Energy in 2022 signed a memorandum of understanding for the Mandan, Hidatsa and Akira Nation, which is the sovereign tribal nation of the Three Affiliated Tribes, to become the natural gas supplier for the Great Plains Hydrogen Hub
The hub, the nexus of which is expected to be Bakken Energy’s Great Plains Synfuels Plant, is expected to produce more than 380,000 metric tons/year of hydrogen. 

From Mitsubishi, press release:  link here.

Acquisition of the Great Plains Synfuels Plant in the Works

Bismarck, N.D. and Lake Mary, Fla. (June 2, 2021) – Bakken Energy, LLC, formerly Bakken Midstream Natural Gas, LLC, (Bakken Energy) and Mitsubishi Power Americas, Inc. (Mitsubishi Power) have signed a strategic partnership agreement to create a world-class clean hydrogen hub in North Dakota. This hub will be composed of facilities that produce, store, transport and consume clean hydrogen. It will be connected by pipeline to other clean hydrogen hubs being developed throughout North America.

Developing infrastructure for hydrogen enables decarbonization of sectors such as energy, agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing that are targeting net zero carbon emissions. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier and a carbon-free fuel. The most common forms of clean hydrogen are green and blue. Green hydrogen is created from water using renewable energy and electrolysis. Blue hydrogen is derived from natural gas with the carbon dioxide emissions captured and sequestered. The hub in North Dakota will focus on blue hydrogen production.
The Bakken Energy partnership to create a clean hydrogen hub joins Mitsubishi Power’s portfolio of innovative partnerships and cross-sector teams accelerating hydrogen technology realization. Mitsubishi Power has been developing a hydrogen hub with Magnum Development in Utah to support the western U.S., and in May signed an agreement to develop hydrogen storage solutions with Texas Brine across the eastern U.S. The company also has numerous hydrogen projects and collaborations across North America.
Bakken Energy, supported by Mitsubishi Power, is currently working with Basin Electric Power Cooperative and its subsidiary Dakota Gasification Company on the potential acquisition and redevelopment of the Great Plains Synfuels Plant located near Beulah, North Dakota. The redevelopment would make the facility the largest producer of clean hydrogen in North America. The project is in due diligence, and specific details are confidential until that phase is complete.

Eighteen Permits Renewed; Nine Permits Canceled; Three New Oil & Gas Permits -- January 17, 2023

Earlier today, RBN Energy had an update on US "hydrogen projects. I mentioned that I had not seen North Dakota mentioned in the RBN Energy article. When I went back and read it again, more closely, North Dakota was mentioned. The two links below have been previously posted. Here and here.

***************************
North Dakota  Hydrogen Hub

Two stories.  

From natural gas intelligencelink here.

In June 2021, Mitsubishi Power Americas Inc. inked a deal with Bakken Energy to develop a regional hydrogen hub in North Dakota. Gov. Doug Burgum last October then said the state, as well as Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin, would link arms with Mitsubishi and Bismarck, ND-based Bakken Energy to develop an H2Hub using funds designated to the U.S. Department of Energy under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. 

“For Bakken Energy, and our Heartland Hydrogen Hub, it is all about making clean hydrogen abundant and affordable,” said Bakken Energy CEO Mike Hopkins. 

Bakken Energy in 2022 signed a memorandum of understanding for the Mandan, Hidatsa and Akira Nation, which is the sovereign tribal nation of the Three Affiliated Tribes, to become the natural gas supplier for the Great Plains Hydrogen Hub
The hub, the nexus of which is expected to be Bakken Energy’s Great Plains Synfuels Plant, is expected to produce more than 380,000 metric tons/year of hydrogen. 

From Mitsubishi, press release:  link here.

Acquisition of the Great Plains Synfuels Plant in the Works

Bismarck, N.D. and Lake Mary, Fla. (June 2, 2021) – Bakken Energy, LLC, formerly Bakken Midstream Natural Gas, LLC, (Bakken Energy) and Mitsubishi Power Americas, Inc. (Mitsubishi Power) have signed a strategic partnership agreement to create a world-class clean hydrogen hub in North Dakota. This hub will be composed of facilities that produce, store, transport and consume clean hydrogen. It will be connected by pipeline to other clean hydrogen hubs being developed throughout North America.

Developing infrastructure for hydrogen enables decarbonization of sectors such as energy, agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing that are targeting net zero carbon emissions. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier and a carbon-free fuel. The most common forms of clean hydrogen are green and blue. Green hydrogen is created from water using renewable energy and electrolysis. Blue hydrogen is derived from natural gas with the carbon dioxide emissions captured and sequestered. The hub in North Dakota will focus on blue hydrogen production.
The Bakken Energy partnership to create a clean hydrogen hub joins Mitsubishi Power’s portfolio of innovative partnerships and cross-sector teams accelerating hydrogen technology realization. Mitsubishi Power has been developing a hydrogen hub with Magnum Development in Utah to support the western U.S., and in May signed an agreement to develop hydrogen storage solutions with Texas Brine across the eastern U.S. The company also has numerous hydrogen projects and collaborations across North America.
Bakken Energy, supported by Mitsubishi Power, is currently working with Basin Electric Power Cooperative and its subsidiary Dakota Gasification Company on the potential acquisition and redevelopment of the Great Plains Synfuels Plant located near Beulah, North Dakota. The redevelopment would make the facility the largest producer of clean hydrogen in North America. The project is in due diligence, and specific details are confidential until that phase is complete.

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Back to the Bakken

Challenger Point Energy, LLC

  • well search
    • thirty-one permits in North Dakota
    • most recent (2022)
    • one as far back as 2011
  • at "Operators” (link here):

Challenger Point Energy

  • perhaps first mention at the blog at this post
  • over at NDIC well search, April 3, 2018: five wells (file numbers); all active; two in Customs oil field; two in Flaxton oil field; and one in Stony Run oil field
  • possibly this address: 2549 Main Street, Suite 202, Littleton, CO 80120

Active rigs: link here.

WTI: $80.92.

Natural gas: $3.631.

Four new permits: #39568 - #39571, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR; Prima Exploration, Challenger Point Energy (see above, #39570, #39571)
  • Fields: Woburn (Burke County); Jim Creek (Dunn); Ft Buford (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for an Eclipse SWD in Jim Creek, Dunn County;
    • Prima Exploration has a permit for an Elzy Lay well in NENE 27-153-104; 
      • to be sited 775 FNL and 170 FEL;
    • Challenger Point Energy has permits for two Jacobson wells in NWNE / NWNW 6-162-90, 
      • to be sited 600 FNL with one 1420 FEL and the other 735 FWL

Eighteen permits renewed:

  • CLR (16): nine Lundberg Federal permits in Rattlesnake Point, Dunn County; a Salem permit in Dollar Joe, Williams County; three Ravin permits in Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County; two Gibb permits in Beaver Lodge, Williams County; and a Cuskelly Federal permit in Dunn County;
  • Whiting: a permit for a Green well in McKenzie County;
  • Bowline Energy: a permit for a Novak well in McKenzie County;

Nine permits canceled:

  • EOG (5): permits for three Austin wells; one Burke well; and, one Liberty LR well, all in Mountrail County;
  • Whiting (4): single permits for an S-Bar Laurel; an S-Bar Brandon; and S-Bar Devon; and, an S-Bar Joanna well, all in Mountrail County.

Added To My Winter Reading List -- January 17, 2023

This book will sit next to The Frackers on my book shelf. 

The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters, Gregory Zuckerman, c. 2014.

Director's Cut -- Of The Three Big US Shale Plays Only One Has Up Arrows For The January, 2023, Dashboards -- Director's Cut: October, 2022, Data

Link here.

Director's Cuts are tracked here.

October, 2022, data posted

Record.

Wells offline for operational purposes tracked here

North Dakota oil production: 1,121,754 bopd 

Director's Cut --  October, 2022, data.

Wells, November data:

  • waiting on completions:
    • October: 489
    • November: 447
  • inactive:
    • October: 1,868
    • November: 2,271
  • completed:
    • October: 54 (preliminary)
    • November: 58 (preliminary)
    • December: 104 (preliminary) RF+100%
  • producing:
    • October: 17,791
    • November: 17,563 (new, all-time high, 17,791 -- 10/2022

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The Dashboards 

Updated for January, 2023, data. 

EIA dashboards:

Bakken:

Eagle Ford:

Permian:

The Apple Page -- Whoo-Hoo! January 17, 2023

Updates

January 18, 2023: sleuthing suggests all the products released over the weekend / yesterday, Tuesday  caught everyone by surprise; it looks like these products were supposed to be released last fall (October, 2022) but caught up in China supply problems.

Later, 8:01 p.m. CT: the Apple announcements today were huge. Really huge. I'm not sure if the mainstream media knows how big these stories were on so many levels. Two links of importance;
2024 MacBook Pro models to feature 3mm M3 Pro and M3 Max chips; and the 2024 Mac Mini. The timelines are particularly interesting -- if I get the chance I'll explain just how interesting the announcements were. And, of course, this is on top of the huge Apple story from last Friday (January 14, 2023).

Later, 2:48 p.m. CT: I'm now watching the new 20-minute Apple ad for the 3rd time. They had me at "52 apps open at one time" but just had to watch it all again. As I've said many, many times, I don't care about Apple, INC with regard to AAPL. I'm simply blown away by the technology, the culture, and the business model

Later, 2:06 p.m. CT: today on YouTube a barrage of Apple commercials, introducing the new, revolutionary M2 Mac Mini and MacBook Pro. More than ever I know I am correct with my thoughts about the southern surge. So many dots to connect. I will eventually find the new 20-minute Apple ad; when I do, I will link it.

Later, 2:01 p.m. CT: the M2 MacMini announcement. MacBook Pro. The "old Mac Mini": $899.

The brand new MacMini? $599. Talk to me about inflation again.

Original Post 

The Dow falls 300 points and AAPL is UP.  

Revolutionary. Simply leapfrogging the competition. 

Apple made so many announcements today, impossible to keep up. Go to MacRumors, a dynamic link.

Link here

Wow, this was a surprise.

Intel: sayonara. Apple has removed the Intel Mac Mini from lineup.

Data points:

  • the new M2 Pro chip:
    • a 10-core or 12-core CPU
      • up to 20% faster performance than the M1 Pro chip
    • also a 19-core GPU that delivers up to 30% more graphics performance (target: Nvidia)
  • higher-end M2 Max chip
    • an improved 12-core CPU with up to eight high-performance and four high-efficiency cores
      • delivers up to 20% faster performance than the M1 Max chip
    • has up to a 38-core GPU
  • with the new M2 Max chip, the new MacBook Pro is now up to 6x faster than the fastest Intel-based MacBook Pro
  • much, much more at MacRumors

Huge.

*********************************
Background

Investors.

AAPL: link here.

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

GS Earnings -- On Anyone's Bingo Card Today? January 17, 2023

Investing, earnings:

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Pre-Market

WTI: $80.46.

  • DVN: up one-half percent; yields over 8%;
  • PSX: flat at $103
  • PXD: up slightly in pre-market trading; yields 11%; P/E less than 9; my goodness, what do investors want? LOL. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

GS: down almost $10/share; down over 2.5%; opening could be around $365.

Hydrogen -- January 17, 2023

RBN Energy: the secret list of survivors of DOE's hydrogen hub cutdown. Archived.

Note: before getting started, unless I missed it, RBN Energy did not include "blue hydrogen project in the Bakken."

The U.S. has committed billions of dollars over the last couple of years to clean-energy initiatives, everything from advanced fuels and carbon-capture technology to renewable energy and electric vehicles. The “all-of-the-above” approach also includes clean hydrogen, whose development the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has deemed crucial to meeting the Biden administration’s goals of a 100% clean electric grid by 2035 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

As part of its efforts, the U.S. plans to provide generous financial support for the buildout of several hydrogen hubs — initial concept papers were submitted last year by dozens of applicants for the federal largesse, and the DOE recently provided formal “encouragement” to 33 proponents to submit a full application this spring, in what amounts to an informal cutdown, but declined to name them.

In today’s RBN blog, we examine the 18 projects we’ve been able to identify that survived the trimming, what they tell us about the selection process, and how it compares to our previous expectations.

Location, location, location: We’ve long thought that the Gulf Coast was a natural choice for a hydrogen hub.
Of the 18 projects we’ve identified to date that were encouraged to submit a full application, at least three of them are in Texas or include Texas. The standout among them may be the HyVelocity Hub proposal for a hydrogen network along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, a region that already has an impressive array of hydrogen production, pipeline and storage assets — not to mention natural gas supply, wind farms, solar facilities, carbon-sequestration potential, and scores of hydrogen end-users.
The founding proponents of the HyVelocity Hub include the Center for Houston’s Future, GTI Energy, Chevron, Air Liquide and the University of Texas at Austin.
Along those lines, a plan put forward by the Port of Corpus Christi has similar strengths. The Corpus Christi area — including Ingleside, just across the bay — appears to have all the makings of becoming a cost-effective, scalable hydrogen hub. Among other things, there are large tracts of land (much of it owned by the Port of Corpus Christi) that could be used for clean hydrogen (and clean ammonia) production, hydrogen/ammonia storage, and carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration, as well as a plethora of marine terminals that could be expanded to export ammonia. Ammonia, which contains a lot of hydrogen, is an efficient carrier — or “suitcase molecule” — for transporting hydrogen by ship. (A third Texas plan focuses on Permian natural gas.

Tuesday -- A Short Week -- WTI With An 8-Handle -- Whoo-Hoo! Count Your Blessings -- January 17, 2023

Amazing: and I understand despite / in spite of provocateurs. From The LA Times:

Covid: ‘Tripledemic’ anxiety has LAUSD parents pleading for mask mandate.

Many Los Angeles parents are navigating another troubling winter of health worries, as COVID-19, flu cases and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, continue to circulate.
Among many low-income or multifamily households, a contagious virus threatens both their child and their financial stability.
A group of families, largely Spanish-speaking parents from East and South Los Angeles, is now asking L.A. Unified for mandatory masking and to re-establish on-campus weekly coronavirus testing.
They have not yet received a direct response from the district. But at a January 9, 2023, news conference, Supt. Alberto Carvalho took on what he referred to as “misinformation, disinformation, confusion and unwarranted fear.”

Long essay on poverty in California. Link here. Count your blessings.

Links: if anyone is interested.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: link here.

WTI; $80.18.

Natural gas: $3.712.

Wednesday, January 25, 2023: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 58 for the year
39048, conf, CLR, Kelling 8-4H,
39000, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-5,
38867, conf, Prima Exploration, Yogi Bear State 3H,
34525, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 7-14-18H,

Tuesday, January 24, 2023: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 54 for the year
38999, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3,
38889, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2918-3BH,
38888, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2918-4BH,

Monday, January 23, 2023: 51 for the month; 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year
38998, conf, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-3,
38997, conf, Slawson, Blizzard Federal 1-13H,
38732, conf, Hess, EN-Neset-156-94-1819H-1,
31325, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 41-12 2B,

Sunday, January 22, 2023: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year
None.

Saturday, January 21, 2023: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year
39012, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H,
30868, conf, Prima Exploration, Smokey Bear State 3H,
27898, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 15-6H,

RBN Energy: the secret list of survivors of DOE's hydrogen hub cutdown. Archived.

Two links (previously posted) regarding a hydrogen hub proposal in North Dakota at this post but not discussed in the RBN Energy update.

The U.S. has committed billions of dollars over the last couple of years to clean-energy initiatives, everything from advanced fuels and carbon-capture technology to renewable energy and electric vehicles. The “all-of-the-above” approach also includes clean hydrogen, whose development the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has deemed crucial to meeting the Biden administration’s goals of a 100% clean electric grid by 2035 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

As part of its efforts, the U.S. plans to provide generous financial support for the buildout of several hydrogen hubs — initial concept papers were submitted last year by dozens of applicants for the federal largesse, and the DOE recently provided formal “encouragement” to 33 proponents to submit a full application this spring, in what amounts to an informal cutdown, but declined to name them.

In today’s RBN blog, we examine the 18 projects we’ve been able to identify that survived the trimming, what they tell us about the selection process, and how it compares to our previous expectations.

Location, location, location: We’ve long thought that the Gulf Coast was a natural choice for a hydrogen hub.
Of the 18 projects we’ve identified to date that were encouraged to submit a full application, at least three of them are in Texas or include Texas. The standout among them may be the HyVelocity Hub proposal for a hydrogen network along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, a region that already has an impressive array of hydrogen production, pipeline and storage assets — not to mention natural gas supply, wind farms, solar facilities, carbon-sequestration potential, and scores of hydrogen end-users.
The founding proponents of the HyVelocity Hub include the Center for Houston’s Future, GTI Energy, Chevron, Air Liquide and the University of Texas at Austin.
Along those lines, a plan put forward by the Port of Corpus Christi has similar strengths. The Corpus Christi area — including Ingleside, just across the bay — appears to have all the makings of becoming a cost-effective, scalable hydrogen hub. Among other things, there are large tracts of land (much of it owned by the Port of Corpus Christi) that could be used for clean hydrogen (and clean ammonia) production, hydrogen/ammonia storage, and carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration, as well as a plethora of marine terminals that could be expanded to export ammonia. Ammonia, which contains a lot of hydrogen, is an efficient carrier — or “suitcase molecule” — for transporting hydrogen by ship. (A third Texas plan focuses on Permian natural gas.