The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 01/12/23

Thursday, January 12, 2023

And There You Have It -- Your List For 2023 -- Good Luck To All -- January 12, 2023

Alex Kimani: why oil's seven-month downturn may be about to reverse. I would not have posted this except it was written by Alex Kimani.

Rigzone: analysts flag short term oil price upside.

IBD: twenty-one stocks that some think may grow as much as 1,220% as new uptrend begins. EPS estimate: current year %:

Ambac Financial - 1,220%
Valero Energy - 888%
HF Sinclair - 876%
Murphy Oil - 354%
Occidental Petroleum - 285%
Phillips 66 - 242% -- to buy DCP Midstream
Hess - 238%
DCP Midstream - 173% -- to be bought by Phillips 66
Pinduoduo - 161%
Titan International - 161%
Eni - 160%
Exxon Mobil - 158%
Cactus - 149%
BP - 133%
Canadian Solar - 130%
Northern Oil & Gas - 117%
Diamondback Energy - 116%
Shell - 111%
TotalEnergies - 110%
Genmab - 103%
Graphic Packaging - 100%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

As a reminder, this was posted yesterday:

Oil: eleven best American oil stocks to buy now. From InsiderMonkey a couple of days ago. Link here. HES, VLO, HAL, PXD, MRO, DVN, COP, CVX, CHK, OXY, XOM.

Many of these names appear on both lists.

It's also notable which energy companies don't appear on either list.

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Soccer

Our middle granddaughter Olivia, a junior, is a captain for her high school girl's soccer team, the only junior to have been named a captain. The three captain "slots" are generally reserved for seniors.

As a sophomore, last year, she and her team took second place at state championship tournament for Division 5A. Largest schools in Texas are 6A; then the 5A schools. Her school girls soccer team is always in contention, but they lost a lot of their best players last year -- graduation -- and are not expected to do as well this year.

The team is participating in the state's season opening tournament held in Austin, TX. It began today, Thursday, and will conclude on Sunday.

Tonight was their first game.

Our granddaughter's text after the game:

"TO THE WIRE!!!! 2 - 1.
"It was 1 - 0 until the last seven minutes when they tied it up. We scored again in the last ninety seconds.
"We won against the #3 ranked team.
"We're ranked #13.
"Personally, I appreciate a lower ranking so wee can under-promise and over-deliver. As was the case this game."

RIP -- I Missed This One -- December 29, 2022

Ian Tyson, age 89.

The BR CCU Wells, Corral Creek

The wells:

16912, 226, BR, CCU Burner 41-26H, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 414K 11/22;
22967, 2,242, BR, CCU Burner 21-26MBH, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 221K 11/22;
22968, 2,129, BR, CCU Burner 21-26TFH, Corral Creek, t7/13; cum 336K 11/22;
26679, 1,776, BR, CCU Burner 41-26TFH, Corral Creek, t3/14; cum 266K 11/22;
26680, 2,665, BR, CCU Burner 41-26MBH, Corral Creek, t4/14; cum 346K 11/22;
31402, 1,824, BR, CCU Burner 31-26TFH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum 321K 11/22;
31906, 1,670, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum 472K 11/22;
32464, PNC, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26TFH, Corral Creek,
36324, 198, BR, CCU Burner 1A TFH, Corral Creek, t8/19; cum 324K 11/22;

Not Tone-Deaf -- For What It's Worth -- The Apple Page -- January 12, 2023

Link here.

COP, Venezuela, And Not On My Bingo Card -- January 12, 2023

This certainly was not on my bingo card today. LOL.

Before getting started, review this post to make sure you know the players.

Link to The WSJ here.

From the linked article:

ConocoPhillips, which abandoned Venezuela after its assets were nationalized in 2007, is now open to a deal to sell the country’s oil in the U.S. as a way to recover the close to $10 billion it is owed by Venezuela.
In what are preliminary talks between ConocoPhillips and national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA, the two sides are looking at a proposal that could allow the Houston-based company to load, transport and sell Venezuela’s oil in the U.S. on behalf of PdVSA, as the state oil company is known.
This would give ConocoPhillips a chance to recover the money it lost in the country and help the U.S. meet its energy needs.
The arrangement would help Venezuela end the commercial isolation that was caused by U.S. sanctions leveled against the oil industry in 2019, and further open the U.S. market to its crude. The U.S. had historically been Venezuela’s largest oil market until the sanctions, with several big Gulf Coast refineries designed to run its heavy crude.
But a sharp yearslong fall in Venezuelan production curbed supply. Then sanctions, imposed by the U.S. in response to human rights violations and democratic backsliding, broke off trade.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- January 12, 2023

Natural gas fill rate: link here. When was the last time we saw this? It's the middle of winter and there's actually a "net increase" in working gas in storage in the US. Incredible.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: link here.

WTI: up 1.3%; up almost a buck. Trading at $78,39.

Natural gas: $3.695.

No new permits.

Four permits renewed:

Hess: four SC-JW Hamilton permits; Long Creek, Williams.

A Lot Of Crazy Stuff Today -- Will Post Later -- Taking Sophia To Jiu-Jitsu Now -- January 12, 2023

CDC: Most recent "seasonal flu" data.

Link here, updated January 6, 2023.

More comments later, perhaps:

TSM -- What A Wild Day -- January 12, 2023

Update: this is where we will track TSM.

Updates

January 27, 2023: Buffett reportedly bought $4 billion in TSM in 3Q23.

January 27, 2023: Before we get started, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe TSM manufactures --

Apple chips
Intel chips
Nvidia graphic boards

Original Post
Themes.
Themes -- 2023.

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.
Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA
Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics

Now, back to the charts.

After posting the TSM chart earlier today (see below), this popped up on my social media feed:

So, what did NVDA do today?

NVDA was up 3% during the day and then after the close popped $58 (35%) before dropping 0.62% or $1.20. Very, very volatile. Look at the graph:

NVDA was up 3% during the day and then after the close popped $58 (35%) before dropping 0.62% or $1.20. Very, very volatile.

Let's do the 5-day:

I'm not sure what Matteo and all his friends are thinking but somehow it appears they're misreading the numbers. LOL.

Matteo was responding to TSM's posted results. I have no idea how Matteo interpreted TSM's results, but the one thing that jumped out at me was TSM's margins: 62%.

Nvidia's earnings here.

Original Post

This was posted about 2:25 p.m. EST today:

Earlier this morning:

TSM: only one number to watch! Link here. Shares could surge today. [Posted at 7:14 a.m. CST -- well before the market opened. Whoo-hoo!]

Earnings.

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The Headlines

Mixed. LOL.

New USGS Place Names -- Update -- Of Interest Today: Homesteaders Gap -- January 12, 2023

Link here, from 2022.

In that list, 650 names / locations: interactive map located here.

Seven locations / names were yet to be considered.

Those seven locations / names have now been updated. From the press release:

The Department of the Interior today announced the Board on Geographic Names (BGN) has voted on the remaining replacement names featuring the word sq___. In September, the Department announced the final vote for nearly 650 features, but completed an additional review for seven locations that are considered unincorporated populated places.
“Words matter, particularly in our work to ensure our nation’s public lands and waters are accessible and welcoming to people of all backgrounds,” said Secretary Deb Haaland. “I am grateful to the members of the Derogatory Geographic Names Task Force and the Board on Geographic Names for their efforts to finalize the removal of this harmful word. Together, we are showing why representation matters and charting a path for an inclusive America.”

Today’s vote came after a year-long process to remove a term from federal use that has historically been used as an offensive ethnic, racial and sexist slur, particularly for Indigenous women. Noting that there are unique concerns with renaming populated locations, the BGN sought additional review and comments from Tribes, local communities and stakeholders before the final vote.

The seven places for additional review included:

Sq___ Harbor, Alaska: Removed from consideration. Feature is a historical area that no longer serves as an unincorporated community.
Sq___ Hill, Calif.: Name changed to Loybas Hill. Proposed by the Paskenta Band of Nomlaki Indians, the name translates to “Young Lady” and honors the past, present and future Native women from and living in the area.
Sq___ Valley, Calif.: Name changed to Yokuts Valley, which was proposed during the public comment period. Yokuts translates to “people.”
Sq___ Gap, N.D.: Name changed to Homesteaders Gap, which was selected by the community in the populated area as relevant to their local history. [This location still carries the old name at wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squaw_Gap,_North_Dakota.]
Sq___berry, Tenn.: Name changed to Partridgeberry, another common name for the plant for which the community is currently named.
Sq___ Mountain, Texas: Name changed to Lynn Creek in honor of Isaac Lynn, who lived on the creek nearby that bears his name.
Sq___ Place, Wyo.: Removed from consideration. Feature is a locale now listed as privately owned land.

The list of all new names will be updated on the U.S. Geological Survey website to reflect today’s vote along with a map of locations. While the new names are immediately effective for federal use, the public may continue to propose name changes for any features through the regular BGN process.

The Headline: OPEC-Only Production Rose By 120,000 BPD In December, 2022

But here's the bigger story: OPEC- still almost two million bpd below its target.

And remember: OPEC+ cut its collective production target by two million bpd in November

Some could add two + two and get four million bpd.

Russian production: unchanged (and remember, Russia needs all the cash it can raise to fight the war)
Nigeria: rebounded to a several-month high -- which explained the headline number.

And despite needing all that money to fight a war:

At the end of December, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia could reduce its oil output by 500,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd in response to the oil price cap.

Let's see: two million + two million + one million = five million.

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Sticking Its Neck Out

Link here.

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Dark Matter

Link here.

From their observations, astronomers widely predict that dark matter must comprise around 85% of all matter in the universe. So far, however, most theories about the nature of this mysterious source of mass have pinned their hopes on theoretical, as-yet undiscovered particles.

Professor Eugene Oks from the Physics Department of the Auburn University has proposed that a more natural explanation could come in the form of an uncharted ‘second flavour’ of the hydrogen atom.

With a reliable basis in theory, atomic experiments, and astronomical observations, his ideas hold the potential to provide long-awaited solutions to one of the most notorious mysteries in modern physics.

Containing just a single electron orbiting a single proton, the hydrogen atom is the simplest of all elements in the periodic table. Owing to the low number of inter-particle interactions taking place within these atoms, they have long been considered a reliable test bench for physicists to compare their theories with real experimental observations.

Yet despite their simplicity, the physical properties of hydrogen atoms still hold a number of unsolved mysteries. In their ground state – where their electrons have not been excited to higher energy levels – the atoms’ linear momenta (products of the mass and velocity of an object) are distributed over a range of values. At higher energies, this pattern displays an elongated ‘tail,’ whose shape follows a close relationship with the atoms’ momenta. For decades, however, physicists’ models of the shape of this tail didn’t match up with their observations.

Merkel's Legacy -- January 12, 2023

Link here.

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Drought In California

From The Los Angeles Times today:

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More

Global Energy: The 21st Century Is America's Century -- January 12, 2023

Themes: link here.
Themes: 2023.

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Medicine: it's all about CRISPR, mRNA

Information: it's all about semi-conductors, automation, robotics.

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The News

Road to New England: hits new milestone.

Annualize The Last Six-Month CPI And See What You Get -- January 12, 2023

January 28, 2023, link here, and tracked here:

Inflation: again, a reminder, core inflation was down 0.1% over the past three months.

Inflation: link here.

Oil: eleven best American oil stocks to buy now. From InsiderMonkey a couple of days ago. Link here. HES, VLO, HAL, PXD, MRO, DVN, COP, CVX, CHK, OXY, XOM.

Road to New England: hits new milestone.

TSM: only stock I will be following today.

In-N-Out: huge expansion. Moving east. Will set up "a" corporate hub in Tennessee. Franklin, TN:

Franklin is a city just south of Nashville, in Tennessee. A key site of the American Civil War, it’s home to 2 properties exploring the 1864 Battle of Franklin: Carter House and Carnton Plantation, which includes the McGavock Confederate Cemetery. The 1858 Lotz House contains a large collection of 19th-century furniture. Downtown’s Main Street is lined with galleries, antique shops and restored Victorian buildings. ― Google

Carnton And McGavock Confederate Cemetery. Wiki.

What a butt. Link here. The link is to Axios, not FoxNews; speaks volumes. Not that he has any real "control," but he always comes on after the fact and says "they" don't know what caused the [most recent] problem, but "they" will investigate. By the time the investigation is over, there's a new supply disruption.

TSM -- January 12, 2023

Here it is:

exactly as expected
CPI: down 0.1%, exactly as expected;
6.5: exactly as expected

high water 9.1% back in June

core (y/y; excludes energy, food): up 5.7, exactly as expected
m/m: CPI up 0.3%; exactly as expected

Dow goes from "up 130 points" to "down 100 points."

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Original Post

The Dow: as CPI numbers released:

at 7:24, futures: Dow up 124 points, after being flat all night.

at 7:25: up 130 points.
at 7:32: down 100 points
at 7:35: now, as analysts start digesting these very good numbers, Dow back up 60 points
at 7:37: back up 80 points

analysts:

inflation decelerating
inflation will be higher for longer but Fed will live with it
a good report
wait for details: rent, services
Fed will look at this favorably
Fed will high rates twice more this year, up 25 bp each time;
market; wait and watch
Rick Santelli: market today -- should go much higher today; this was all the buzz yesterday -- that this could be a great day for the market

Jobs:

continuing claims: down 63K to 1.63 million
initial claims: down 1K to 205K

Enough of this, moving on. CNBC now turned off for the day.

TSM: only one number to watch! Link here. Shares could surge today.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: link here.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: amazing. Up another $1.20; up 5.6%; trading at $78.61.

Natural gas: $3.810.

Friday, January 13, 2023:
36891, conf, Petroshale, Carson Federal 21-19A,
36177, conf, BR, George 2E MBH,
27883, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 21-6H,

Thursday, January 12, 2023:
38735, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-156-94-1819H-2,
37564, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12C-1-1HS,
27882, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2,

RBN Energy: The 2023 outlook for Permian gas and oil markets. Archived.

You probably won’t be surprised to hear that we believe the Permian Basin is set for another year of crude oil and natural gas production growth. Everyone’s come to expect that from the Permian. What is new, though, is that the vast production area in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico has taken on some serious global significance over the past year — especially as an increasingly important energy supplier to Europe.

That emerging role is likely not only to support continued production growth in the Permian but also to shape how the basin’s infrastructure is built out through the rest of the 2020s. And we also know that infrastructure development is critical to the Permian’s ongoing success — in 2023, new gas pipeline takeaway capacity is needed pronto and it may not be long before new oil-pipeline capacity from the Permian to Corpus Christi is required too. In today's RBN blog, we provide this year’s outlook for Permian natural gas and oil markets.

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Thursday, January 12, 2023