Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days — November 2, 2023

Locator: 45912B.

EVs: Peter Zeihan. Can’t be any more direct.

MDU: beats on EPS; misses on revenue. To spin off construction; MDU to be pure-play regulated energy business. Link here.

COP: earnings, beat.

SBUX: surging: up 8%. Folks paying up for pricey drinks. Yet Target CEO says customers pulling back — yes —> Amazon and Walmart. Logistics seems to be a real problem for Target.

ROKU: soars 18%.

PARA: $22 a year ago; now $10. Buffett bought about a year ago; still holds. Needs to be fact-checked.

AAPL: reports later today. To start iPhone production in India.

DVN: up slightly today.

One thing in common: DVN, CHRD, Grayson Mill, APA, FANG.

TECH: up huge today. Ex.: Palantir up 18%. Trading near $18 today, $5 a year ago. Seed corn starting to grow. 

WTI: now we know why oil plunged.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.60.

Friday, November 3, 2023: 90 for the month; 90 for the quarter, 660 for the year

39745, conf, Neptune Operating, Shaffer 27-22 2H, 

39598, conf, CLR, Brroks 6-9H1, 

39203, conf, Murex, PB-Sourina Angelina-1-12H MBH, 

Thursday, November 2, 2023: 87 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 657 for the year
39746, conf, Neptune Operating, Shaffer 27-22 3H, 
39205, conf, Murex, PB-Winston Axel 36-25H MB,
39204, conf, Murex, PB-Stephhen Luke 36-25H MB,
38836, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-34-4H, 

RBN ENERGY: financing, tariffs, prices, complicate the path to FID for LNG export projects. 

LNG export projects looking to take a positive final investment decision (FID) need to sell a high proportion of their nameplate capacity under long-term contracts to ensure sufficient cash flows to underpin the project and obtain financing. 

U.S.-based projects (new and expansions) totaling more than 350 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 48.3 Bcf/) — against a current global market of 400 MMtpa (52.9 Bcf/d) — are vying for creditworthy offtakers from multiple markets in their pre-FID deliberations. 

The sense of urgency among project sponsors has been boosted by the Russia/Ukraine war and a potentially resurgent Chinese economy, both of which should promise a bright future for new projects. 

Plenty of those have reached FID in the last couple of years, but what is holding others back from taking the same step? In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at some of the factors impacting those decisions and the long-term implications that flow from them. 

Data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) shows that long-term sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) are in place for 73 MMtpa (9.7 Bcf/d) of LNG supply to be met by projects along the U.S. Gulf Coast. So far in 2023, three such projects have taken FID: NextDecade (17.6 MMtpa, 2.3 Bcf/d), Port Arthur (13 MMtpa, 1.7 Bcf/d), and Plaquemines Phase 2 (6.7 MMtpa, 0.9 Bcf/d) for a combined 37.3 MMtpa (4.9 Bcf/d), a significant amount in any year. But those three account for only 60% of the LNG signed up, with the rest divided among a number of pre-FID projects.