Investing 101 -- The Inverted Curve -- Barron's Take -- November 23, 2023

Locator: 46143ECON.

Link here.

The gap between the two-year government bond yield and the 10-year bond yield now stands at about 0.47 percentage point.

It had become as small as 0.15 point a month ago, having steadily narrowed since the end of July as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message on interest rates.

The biggest gap was back in March, when it exceeded a whole percentage point. The inversion—when the two-year yield is higher than the 10-year yield—has inspired forecasts for a recession since it last started in July 2022.

There’s often a correlation between a yield inversion and an economic slump, because it reflects an anticipation of lower Fed rates in the future. But it has lasted so long now that, even if a recession does arrive in the next few months, the predictive power of the inversion should be in doubt.

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The Book Page

For now, I'm done with Richard III.

I can return Chris Skidmore's Richard III to the bookshelf and return to it at a later date, but I now know so much more. I'm satisfied with my progress this past week with regard to Richard III.

My random notes on Richard III are posted here.

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A Musical Interlude

For the 100th time: