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Friday, November 24, 2023

Headlines - November 24, 2023

Locator: 46150B.

Black Friday: private poll — 100% of respondents already burned out with Black Friday ads. Size of polled group? One. Me.

Lego: front page WSJ story.

Whiskey: Michter’s first. Interesting dots to connect. Connects back to Mitch McConnell. Unrelated link here.

Nividia: another buying opportunity today for investors with 30-day horizon.

OpenAI: something really scary “discovered” by Sam Altman? The buzzword: unnerving. Momentous jump forward: artificial general intelligence (AGI). I would love to say more but I can’t articulate it and I would get too much pushback. 

Hint: it’s already been discussed on the blog. It has to do with this: Altman presented his “machine” with a math question — a simple math question from a middle-school textbook — but did not provide the “machine” with code to solve it.The “machine” came up with a novel way — never before seen” approach — to solving the math problems. The machine refused to give up its answer (thinking process). 
My first thoughts? The Rosetta Stone on steroids. Einstein’s breakthroughs. The Periodic Table and Mendeleev. August Kekulé visualizing the structure of benzene. An ornithologist’s model of DNA. What Covid-19 might have been but wasn’t.
“Open the door, Hal.”

Black Friday: with same day delivery, does Black Friday even matter any more? Consumers know prices will drop the longer they wait. Could “Amazon” shoppers opt for quiet Christmas on December 25th and opening presents on December 28th? Why not order gifts as a family Christmas Eve and open them on Boxing Day as they arrive?

Elephant learning: some find it hard to cancel. Be careful. For my daughter.

Economy: services inflation is the problem, not products inflation. 

Citi chief economist: still projecting a recession sooner than later (2024). Confounding: productivity numbers in US have been great. CAPEX: 2023 inflow was the largest in 50 years. But: consumer sentiment —  4ourth consecutive monthly decline.

Calendar: 31 days between Black Friday and Christmas. Almost as long as possible. Next year: 26 days. Black Friday: largest shopping day but not biggest spending day. Biggest spending day? Saturday before Christmas, just like last year. Everyone is working x increased wages (UAW) = increased spending. 

Products inflation is over. Exhibit A: eggs. 

Finland: oh-oh. Bizarre but written by Charles Kennedy so a must-read.

Nissan: UK EV investment.

On-line searches, Black Friday: top three jn this order — Target, Walmart, Lowe’s. When I don’t see Amazon at #1, I wonder what “they” were measuring.

Barnes and Noble: continues to expand. Huge turnaround story. Complete autonomy to local managers. Wow! Really, really noticeable here in our highly conservative, right-wing, anti-Semitic locale. That’s not meant to be inflammatory. My comment is either accurate or huge perception. Not mutually exclusive. Having said that, I think there’s another reason for B&N’s (perceived) turnaround. Location, location, location. And … timing.

Tech rally: not over. Exciting. Amazing.

Bored/boring? Suggestions. Okay. 

Even I couldn’t make this stuff up. After reading this, I’m willing to stay boring. But I’m certainly not bored. Not enough hours in the day to do everything I want to do. Top of my list? 5ive-day road trips. Have done three (?) in past year. Several already planned for 2024 and one last one in 2023. Plus one last AA round trip in December.

Portland: can downtown survive?

QR codes today? CNBC caught this story earlier this week. Truly amazing. We will be reporting from the Bat Cave.

When Amazon struck its 11-year deal for “Thursday Night Football” in 2021 at an annual cost of $1.2 billion, it sought an additional game to make up for not having one on Thanksgiving or in the last week of the season. 
After its first season in 2022, Amazon and the league agreed to create a Black Friday game. Amazon is making a football feast out of the game with an extended pregame show and celebrity chef David Chang on hand as well to tell viewers how to make the most of those Thanksgiving leftovers. After the game, Amazon is streaming a Garth Brooks concert.

QR codes today? Link here. [Later: watching the game from the Bat Cave. Already one QR code for a LEGO set reduced from $499 too $399. It is amazing all the specials, advertising, use of drones. Amazon is setting a new standard for streaming a football game -- the pre-game, now.]

Market: pre-market trading — more good news? Perhaps. But overall? Scary. Numbers look good but narrative is very concerning. It’s not good news if Fed cuts rates.

Gaza: 4our-day cease-fire has started and “seems to be holding.” That settles that: it's okay to negotiate with terrorists. Are we starting to see Israel’s transition to “police-stating” / quasi-annexing northern Gaza?

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