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Thursday, November 30, 2023

GM Vs Ford — Paths Forward Diverge — November 30, 2023

Locator: 46210EVS.

GM: $10-billion buyback; increases dividend by 33%. Why? Why now? Not needed for EV ramp? That seems strange. This is huge story. Analysts aren’t addressing this. At least not so far.

F: reinstates guidance: says agreement with UAW will cost company almost $9 billion over life of contract. Debt issue: something different between F and GM? See debt graphic at this post.

Folks tell me I shouldn’t invest if I can’t read a financial statement. The linked post and Ford’s comments this week seem pretty clear.

Both will take a breather on EV development. 

CNBC analysts spot something interesting: Americans differentiate between EVs and Teslas. Very, very interesting observation. For Americans to buy non-ICE vehicles, the automobiles need to be cool. Teslas are cool. The other makes are not. Interesting observation.

Same with pick-ups and the Cyberbeast. The Cyberbeast is beyond cool. The other makes, at best, are simply utilitarian.

Tesla continues to raise the bar. It almost seems like GM and F need to go back to drawing board. 

EV acceptance hasn’t gotten past “early adopter” stage after a decade of pushing EVs.

A CNBC anchor didn’t complete his answer but, today, when asked directly he said he had an EV but it sounded like he almost said he didn’t have it any more. Facial expression and body language suggests he doesn’t have his EV any more.

For me: the options are “messy”: range, payload, motors, prices. And that’s true with all EVs. I just don’t get the feeling there’s pent-up demand for EVs. 

One New Permit; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46209B.

US field production: >13 million bopd for the second consecutive month.

Montana: judge says TikTok ban "likely" violates first amendment. Of course it does.  

OPEC+: The WSJ says OPEC+ agrees to "significant oil-production cut." No one believes that. 

Why is WTI so low? Link here. US days of supply, crude oil: 28.9 days. That's a month and doesn't include SPR.
Also, analysts, it seem, still don't understand how shale oil production works. It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. That's why I quit following Josh on twitter. For the three years I followed him, he was wrong.

AAPL: after being down all day, AAPL managed to eke out a minuscule gain at the close. Overall, tech had a bad day, some exceptions, but the Dow -- wow.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.66.

Active rigs: 40.

One new permit, #40359:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has a permit for a BL-Davidson well in SESE 34-156-96, 
      • to be sited 650 FSL and 459 FEL.

Five producing wells (DICs) reported as completed:

  • 37849, 887, Slawson, Loon Federal 3-24-25H, Mountrail,
  • 37851, 624, Slawson, Loon Federal 6-24-25TFH, Mountrail,
  • 37853, 570, Slawson, Genekat FFederal 7-13-12TFH, Mountrail,
  • 39260, 85, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H 5,
  • 39261, 571, Hunt, Cook 1446-93-24-13H 6,

Re-Posting That Apple - Qualcom - 5G Modem Story -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46208AAPL.

Updates

December 4, 2023: 6G modem -- link here.

  • maybe things are not as dire as some might suggest regarding the relationship between QCOM an AAPL
  • the writer at the link questions Apple's assertion that it has ended its own R&D on a 5G modem (that needs to be parsed)
  • interesting, interesting article: note the speculation in Intel -- something to watch
  • think about this: maybe Apple is looking to encourage another manufacturer of modems to compete with QCOM

Original Post 

Posted yesterday. Re-posting:

Apple: holy mackerel! Did I miss this story? Am I missing something? If I’m reading this correctly why is this story not getting move coverage? Anyone following QCOM? Link here. I’ll probably post this as a stand-alone post. QCOM is up 20% in the past month and represents one of my bigger tech holdings. P/E under 20; pays 2.5%. Long backstory

And, then there is this, link here:


A lot is packed into that story. Including a huge "thank you" to Joe Biden and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Squawk On The Street -- Sara Is Talking "Goldilocks" Economy -- November 30, 2023

Locator: 46207INV.

Updates

Later, 3:08 p.m. CT: think about this. Assume all the inflation, the state of the US economy after March, 2020, was due to supply chain issues, and now as of March 2024, there are no longer any supply chain issues. Think along that line. One has to come up with a reason for market action this past six months and so far I haven't heard any theories that make sense. My technical analysis:

Later, 2:49 p.m. CT: Dow closes up 520 points; S&P up 17 and the Nasdaq essentially flat (down 32 points). The VIX was also flat, closing at 12.89. For the archives, Elon Musk releases the first Cybertruck. Price still unknown. Most likely the highest of the high end, the CYBERBEAST: starts at $96,300 was released today. Most folks buying a Ford F-150 are probably paying $55K. See comments.

Later, 12:30 p.m. CT: throughout the day, the second most used word was "deflation." The most used word for the economy -- "Goldilocks."  With regard to the Fed and the economy, it breaks down to two groups, no surprise:

  • bankers, pessimists: soft, shallow recession almost guaranteed; a hard landing but perhaps not that hard;
  • optimists, tech analysis: no recession; based on data, the Fed should be cutting sooner than later;

Original Post

Link here. Look how fast CPI -- to include FOOD and ENERGY -- has fallen since January, this year, and the US debt and deficit have only increased. I still maintain inflation is not one-dimensional.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

S&P

  • gainers: of the ten, three are oil-related -- PSX, MRO, CVX
  • laggards: AAPL (45 cents -- LOL -- a laggard?)

Top tier CNBC anchors: Sara Eisen among a small handful.

  • Sara is talking about a "Goldilocks" economy today.

Top tier analysts: Tom Lee, Josh Brown among a very, very small handful.

Chicago PMI: holy mackerel. Link here for definition.

  • 55.8 vs 46 estimate
  • "a stratospheric number" for November; "red hot"
  • market turns down; S&P turns negative; Nasdaq turns negative -- that was "flash, momentary"
  • five minutes later: Dow surges 300 points; S&P green again; Nasdaq still down a small amount;
  • recession? What recession?


Housing: sales not indicating a recession. That's all you need to know. Everything else is background noise.

Inflation numbers: all looking incredibly good. Tea leaves suggest consumer prices are going to fall after Christmas -- and we will probably see that start to happen the Saturday before Christmas.

Unemployment: if unemployed right now, it's going to become difficult to get hired. 

Eurozone: inflation falls much more than expected. 

Bad news: CNBC seems to having trouble finding bad news for the economy.

Reminder:

  • NFL TNF tonight
  • Cybertruck tonight
  • the two will probably play out at the same time

Market opens:

  • Dow: up 166. SalesForce (CRM) accounts for almost all of this.
  • Nasdaq: up 5.
  • S&P:up 6.5.
  • WTI: $78.95.

Cramer:

  • Hormel's numbers horrible yesterday
  • explains why: has nothing to do with the consumer
  • again, a great analysis
  • has to do with deflation
  • turkey prices plummeted so fast, Hormel couldn't pass cost to consumer
  • result: Hormel took huge loss on turkeys at Thanksgiving
  • yes, so those folks hoping for disinflation / deflation may get their wish

Barron's:

Automobile manufacturers' letter to President Biden: despite all Biden's efforts, EVs are piling up. Americans not buying them. EVs way too expensive; gasoline too cheap.

Elon Musk: absolutely fascinating

  • unfiltered

Nvidia: I finally get it. What's the tectonic change in computing? 

Jensen Huang gets it. One word: reasoning. Sam Altman's work has proved computers can do it. This is earth-shattering
Elon Musk: AI is more dangerous than nuclear weapons. "We" regulate nuclear weapons. Elon is concerned. Jensen Huang seems to be unconcerned.
My hunch: they're talking past each other. One must remember that Elon says he cannot make the chips that Nvidia is able to make. This is why BRK / Buffett / Munger could never .... readers to fill in the blank

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Donut Shop

Our donut shop: best donuts in the neighborhood. We never leave without a "full box." The person behin the counter refuses to let the customer leave with "empty spaces" in the box. She fills all empty space with donut holes at no extra cost.

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The Movie Page

Maestro. Rex Reed review.

Carey Mulligan.

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The Book Page

My copy of Chris Skidmore's Richard III arrived yesterday. It felt different than the copy I read from the local library. Now, I see why. The library copy was an edition published in the US; the copy I got was published in England.

Of all the reading I've done, my "work" with Virginia Woolf, Brenda James' Shakespeare, and the War of the Roses, has been the most rewarding, most satisfying. 

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Apartment Living

A most interesting way of decorating one's garage. I love it.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- Thursday, November 30, 2023

Locator: 46206B.

Reminder: Tesla's Cybertruck rolls out today -- ten trucks -- finally

  • we will get pricing information;
  • more importantly, we will finally get a look at "production models"

Abbvie: to buy ImmunoGen -- of course, IMGN is surging. Up $13; trading at $28.

Peter Zeihan: I'm a huge fan but in this case Peter Zeihan joins the mob that does not understand X.

"They" said it:

  • Iger: "I want to make better Marvel movies."
  • Elon: "I want to focus on interplanetary travel."

Dow-implied open: >200.

Cramer called it

The worse two hours on CNBC: Squawk Box. The last guy I to whom I want to listen when I wake up and turn on the telly -- Paul Ryan. And what's with the 5-day beard?

QCOM: stock to watch -- five days; one month; six months --

  • I've held a sizeable position for years; recently, Apple had me spooked
  • was up almost 2% yesterday
  • five days: flat
  • six months: uup 13%
  • one year: flat
CRM: surging
  • best performing stock this past year
  • responsible for almost the entire "gain" in Dow today
  • compare with BRK-B, one-year and five-year: I was surprised

Charlie Munger: folks may want to listen to his comments on Elon Musk

  • much could be said, but I will leave it at that
  • one will have endless opportunities on CNBC for the next 30 days
  • tag line: "Betsy Quick's last interview"
  • I assume "they" mean "Betsy Quick's last interview with Charlie Munger"

Slow news day?

  • Phil's top news story -- airlines lost baggage
    • early bag decision: being tried out in Houston
  • on the other side: massive passenger volumes for the airlines this year and going forward
  • wow! Sounds like Newark's airport is a disaster; makes me appreciate DFW more than I already did -- and I love DFW
    • will add sixth terminal -- which already sounds interesting

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.45.

Friday, December 1, 2023: 151 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 721 for the year
39911, conf, CLR, Arthur 11-12HSL1,
31767, conf, BR, Ivan 2-1-29MBH,

Thursday, November 30, 2023: 149 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 719 for the year
39626, conf, WPX, State of ND 10-3H1,
39311, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-6,
39310, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-7,
39173, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-3MBHX,
39146, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-3H,

RBN Energy: utilities, other natural gas buyers dip toes in certifid / differentiated gas market 

The drive to minimize methane emissions along the natural gas value chain — and have entities like MiQ and Project Canary certify or differentiate natgas as “low-emissions” — may have started upstream with E&Ps eager to boost their environmental cred, but the effort also has been monitored closely by gas utilities, industrials and others that consume large volumes of gas, and regulators.
In what may be a hint of what’s to come, a number of initial deals for certified/differentiated gas have been announced and a handful of pilot programs are in the works.
In today’s RBN blog, we continue our examination of the emerging low-emissions natgas market with a look at “first-mover” gas buyers and regulatory bodies.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Headlines — November 29, 2023

Locator: 46205B.

Decorating: there's a real trick finding "the line" and not crossing it when decorating one's house for the Christmas holidays.

In our very well-publicized-anti-Semetic neighborhood, I find it interesting that at least one Jewish family has found that line -- perhaps the best Christmas-decorated house in the area without going over the line. The definition of irony.

Music: I'm in my "Come on Eileen," Kevin Rowland, stage. My wife does not understand. Along with everything else, Roland has superb fashion sense.

Chatterjack: official results here. Photos here.

Supply chain: minimal anecdotal evidence that Amazon, UPS, FedEx are having trouble delivering products / orders on time. Right now, this appears to be one of the smoothest sales seasons ever. Having said that, many Lego sets on back order. I order a lot through Amazon and everything is arriving as quickly as ever. Third party sellers seem to be doing well also, meeting customers’ expectations.

Streaming: amazing how much great content is available and it’s only going to get better. Tonight, watching “Mighty Planes,” S1E1, the oldest DC-10 still flying. But there must have been at least thirty other streaming options. Last night it was a JFK assassination documentary. Tomorrow night: NFL football.

Dubai: amazing how often this place shows up in stories of all kinds.

COP28: another spin.

Headlines

Apple: holy mackerel! Did I miss this story? Am I missing something? If I’m reading this correctly why is this story not getting move coverage? Anyone following QCOM? Link here. I’ll probably post this as a stand-alone post. QCOM is up 20% in the past month and represents one of my bigger tech holdings. P/E under 20; pays 2.5%. Long backstory

Cyber Monday: after record on-line Black Friday sales, we now have reports of on-line sales on Cyber Monday.

OXY: in talks to buy CrownRock, a Permian producer. This has been telegraphed for weeks, if not months. $12.5 billion.

Nest camera: to tell you when garage door is open. Link here.

Arm / Apple: royalties. A must-read for investors.

Google: blinks.

Santa Claus rally: Cramer called it

WTI: quietly trending toward $80 again. [Later: turned negative later in day when OPEC+ adjourned meeting with "no change."]

Trump gag order: reinstated by appeals court.

Big News Comes In Three -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46204OBITS.

Charlie Munger dies this past week, age 99.

Henry Kissinger, apparently died today, age 100.

His lawyers may want to review Warren's last will and testament to make sure all the i's are dotted and all the t's crossed.

Speaking of which ...  Kamala Harris had better stick close to her phone ... and have Chief Justice John Roberts, Jr., on speed dial.

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The Tide Is High

Investing -- Rambling -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46203INV.

I'm now spending much more time watching CNBC each day -- this will last for awhile before I become bored again and move on to something else.

Some idle chatter:

The best hour of the day on CNBC, the "Halftime Report."

It becomes tedious: all day long, "we're" told that the run-up in the market is due to seven stocks. Most of the time -- all of the time? -- it is said as if that's "bad news." Why would that be bad news? All day long one is hearing where one might want to invest. One can lead a horse to water, but ...

My take on Charlie Munger's success that applies to all of us when it comes to investing (not trading):

  • never quit reading
  • develop a plan    
    • stick to it
      • tweak the plan at least annually
    • don't take unnecessary risks
      • why invest in a questionable equity when there are so many great options out there
    • have a very, very close friend or investing colleague with whom one can discuss investing ideas
  • have an investing revenue stream
  • live to be at least 85 years of age
  • have a succession plan

I used to think Jamie Dimon was brilliant, but the more I listen to him, the more he sounds like a banker

Understand the difference between investing and trading.

Josh Brown: it's amazing. If you want, you could hire him to be your financial advisor but most of us probably couldn't/can’t afford his fees. But one can listen to him on CNBC day in, day out for "free." 

Go back and look at Peter Lynch when he was active and Warren Buffett's early years. They both had one thing in common.

There's way too much talk about recession, inflation, cost of living: one can't do anything about any of that. Give me that data at the start of each day, like a weather report, and then move on to things about which I can control. Like where to invest, and why.

Along that same line: all that talk about another rise in the Fed rate. Absolutely won't matter. And one can't do anything about that anyway. I doubt Charlie Munger thought about Fed rates when investing for the long term.

Dinner is ready. More later.

Back to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. When did they become rock stars? I don't know but it's pretty amazing to be a rock star for twenty-five years. If Charlie and Warren became famous twenty-five years ago, they were .... 75 years old.
The Beatles: began as a group in 1960. Their last studio album? 1969 or 1970. Barely ten years.

Peter Lynch: a rock star for thirteen years. 

Louis Rukeyser? His show ran for 32 years, but peaked around 15 years on air. 

Way, way overrated: the concept of “dry powder.” Tech companies need huge cash hoards; BRK does not. Mom-and-pop retail investors don’t need huge cash hoards. Exception (perhaps): if MMFs pay interest rates greater than what we’ve seen recently.

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Flathhead Lake, Montana

From my sister from her McMansion on Flathead Lake, today:


Weekly EIA Petroleum Report; Gasoline Demand -- Seasonal Decline -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46202ECON.

A top story over at Drudge today:

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • crude oil: increased by 1.6 million bbls; at 449.7 million bbls, slightly above the five-year average;
  • imports: same as a year ago
  • refiners: 89.8%
  • distillate fuel 11% below five year average
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 5.5%

Gasoline demand: seasonal decline --

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $77.86.

Two new permits, #40357 - #40358, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hunt Oil; Murex Petroleum
  • Fields: Ross (Mountrail); Elmore (Renville)
  • Comments:
    • Murex has a permit for an Emu-Annis Jeannette well in SWSE 34-164-84, 
      • to be sited 1964 FNL and 2093 FEL;
    • Hunt Oil has a permit for a Trulson well in NWNE 11-156-90, 
      • to be sited 214 FNL and 2148 FEL;

Two permits renewed:

  • 38470, Crescent, CPEUSC Riley Anne in Wheelock, Williams
  • 39462, Enerplus, Checkered in South Fork, Dunn;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39352, 314, CLR, Clyde Hauge 3-13H,
  • 39494, 1,820, CLR, Thaxton 6-35H,
  • 39495, 1,447, CLR, Thaxton 5-35H,
  • 37852, 910, Slawson, Loon Federal 7-34-25TFH,

Wells of interest:

  • 22514, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35B off line;
  • 22515, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35F, off line;
  • 25368, CLR, Thaxton 24X-35E, off line;
  • 38985, CLR, Kieffel 2-26HSL, recently fracked; now reporting production; previously reported;
  • 19486, Slawson, Genesis 2-13H, off line since 10/22;

Lego -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46201LEGO.

Lego: gotta be quick, gotta be nimble, to find incredible buys on the other side of the candle stick! LOL.

  • I just found a set on Amazon for 20% off Amazon's usual price -- and compared to our local store, the Amazon price was a whopping 28.6% less.

Lego: for the grandsons -- I found two of the Lego train cars for which they were looking -- $1.00 each. Yup, $1.00 each.

CNBC: I missed the best hour of the day -- but will catch a replay (streaming) later. 

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College Football

Link here.

Think of the television revenue for these two schools.

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Electricity

Our monthly electricity bill. Our only household energy bill is this one.

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Sixty Years Ago In Dallas

I found it strange that I saw nothing about the 60th Anniversary in Dallas.




Recession? What Recession? November 29, 2023

Locator: 46200B.

Note: change for the blog regarding links.

  • in the past, it was my policy to "link everything";
  • now, going forward, I will not "link everything." 
    • it's taking up too much time and much of what I link is readily found anyway;
    •  linking "everything": no value added.

Recession:

  • all predictions over the past four years for a recession by 2023 are now officially wrong/dead and seen for what they were -- a misunderstanding of the macro-economy and the real cause of inflation post-Covid;
    • that's not my conclusion: that's the conclusion of most analysts
  • now, we start over: as of November 29, 2023 I'll be the first to call it: the US is headed for another recession.

Recession: most interesting -- some analysts are coming up with their own definition of a recession

  • one analyst says simply: a recession is an increase in unemployment
  • by that definition, he's sure to be correct sooner than later
  • and, oh, by the way, he will always be correct -- recessions are a normal part of the business cycle.

GDP 3Q23: came in stronger than first indicated

Foot Locker: shares jump 100%; earnings beat; guidance upbeat. These are $300 shoes, folks. Recession. Americans running out of cash. BNPL.

WMT: shares down today. Say what? 

European inflation: drops faster than expected.

When you lose Consumer Reports:

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Lego Trains

Lego sells "Duplo trains."

In fact, Lego sells two broad categories of "Duplo trains."

The two categories are very, very different, and are differentiated by the color of their wheels.

One type of Duplo train has cars with red wheels; the other has cars with yellow wheels. Regardless of the type of wheels, cars with either type of wheels can be hooked together.

The Duplo train set with yellow wheels is meant to be pulled / pushed across the floor and not on tracks. Having said that, the yellow-wheel sets do have their own tracks.

Our grandsons have both sets, pretty much bought by mistake not realizing the two types were not meant to be joined together to run on tracks.

The Duplo train set with red wheels can be run on Lego tracks that can be designed in endless configurations, but the yellow-wheel cars can only run on a circular configuration.

The boys were bored with just running their trains in a circle.

Our grandsons were quite frustrated that not all their cars ran on tracks. If you look at the size of the wheels one can see why (yellow: very wide with dual flange; re: narrower with a single flange).

Our grandsons, age 3.5 years, noted:

  • both types of cars (red wheels / yellow wheels) can run on flat, straight track of either kind, and both types of tracks can fit together;
  • but the wider, double-flanged-yellow-wheel cars cannot run on curved tracks or bridges.

How do we know this?

Without any help from any adult, they put all their tracks together to make a large irregular oval. By trial and error (no doubt), they removed the curves/bridges of one type and replaced them with curves/bridges of the other type and managed to come up with a design that cars of both types could run on the irregular oval.  

This was their result. Note the mix of two type of track sections:

Note that cars with both types of wheels are running on the track.

Brilliant.

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- The Bakken Keeps On Rollin' -- November 29, 2023

Locator: 46200B. 

Comments: some really, really good comments by Josh Brown yesterday regarding rate cuts, another rate increase. Really, really good comments.

Chattajack 2023: this deserves a stand-alone post; maybe later.

Travel: we spent upwards of 15 years in Europe; it was awesome. Articles like this make me want to return to Europe. But, it won't happen. Sad. Link here.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.88.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023: 144 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 714 for the year
39174, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-4MBHX,
39172, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N Federal 158-93-16-14-2MBHX,
39171, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N 158-93-16-14-1MBHX,
37110, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH,

Tuesday, November 28, 2023: 140 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 710 for the year
39820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 6A-29-32-158N-1000W-MBH-LL,
39814, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 10-18H2,
39145, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H,
37109, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,

RBN Energy: For Florida, a proposed "rolling pipeline" for refined products.

Florida is entirely dependent on others for the vast amounts of refined products it consumes — every gallon of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel that’s pumped into cars, SUVs, trucks, locomotives and airplanes in the Sunshine State needs to be either shipped or trucked in. Now, a midstream company is planning a project that would enable large volumes of refined products to be railed into Florida by unit trains to three new storage and distribution terminals — and eventually several more. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the plan. 

Florida is the third-largest state in the U.S. by population after California and Texas, with more than 22 million residents, the vast majority of whom depend on gasoline or diesel to get around. On average, Floridians drive a collective 650 million miles a day, or enough to get Elon Musk to the moon and back more than 1,300 times. And speaking of hurtling through space, Florida is #2 — behind only California — in its consumption of jet fuel, a fact that will come as no surprise to anyone who has flown into or out of Orlando or Miami.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Headlines -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46199HEADLINES.

Not on my bingo card this morning:

  • GM news
  • NVDA surge (again)
  • Dow
  • 10-year below 4.3%
  • VIX: 12.60. [That was on my bingo card.]
  • WTI: up almost 2% despite peace breaking out in the Mideast
  • Mideast: longer truce results in a 2% jump in the price of oil

My wife's portfolio: up 7% in the month of November; she's happy. Surprised. 

PSX: activist Elliott takes $1 billion share in PSX

  • huge; PSX up 5% in pre-market trading
  • whoo-hoo: makes up sizable portion of my portfolio

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A Month Ago

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Elsewhere

Mark Cuban: the big question is what does he plan to do next? It was announced that he is selling his majority interest in the Dallas Mavericks ($2 billion?) and is leaving "The Shark Tank." I think it's pretty obvious what he plans to do next, but we'll see. [Later: okay, the secret is out. It's all about legalizing gambling in Texas.]

Musk: yet another comeback.

Dallas: 60 years ago -- not a peep from the mainstream media. Did I miss something?

Bizarre: some "analysts" blow off the surge in jet fuel supplied. What am I missing?

Fares: airlines surging -- 2024? FOMO, MOJO. No more YOLO.

Back To The Bakken -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46198B. 

 Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $76.41.

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39354, 2,911, MRO, Guy Carlson 244-31H, Killdeer,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302657726582255592882128278462
BAKKEN8-202331328833292538645302433010850
BAKKEN7-2023263544435609466893120930878230
BAKKEN6-20232531472310725237527530263111128
  • 33343, 2,738, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36B, Bear Den,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202323813699958380838

Well of interest:

  • 170064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 517K 9/23:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023302663426543364392263422230302
BAKKEN8-202328139351386640144127051260047
BAKKEN7-2023820552044223542784274823
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023412526679263125111
BAKKEN1-202331128412786122876253754
BAKKEN12-202228107510335462793249243
BAKKEN11-2022301217125761731242729109

Charlie Munger Died Early This Morning -- Late Afternoon Trading -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46197INV.

Charlie Munger: died today, age 99. Now we will see how quickly CNBC can pivot to perhaps the biggest story of the day. Good, bad, or indifferent, probably the best thing the did for all of us, he got us interested in investing. And not just interested, enthused and excited about investing.

From the commentsWit, from Charlie and Warren. https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1729610100178837806.

Ticker BRK: unchanged after the announcement.

Market:

  • ten-year: trending toward 4.3%
  • Dow: up a very, very modest 70 points

Team Rubicon: very, very interesting.

  • Jake Wood: absolutely fascinating
  • if you can't connect the dots, you aren't paying attention

Phases: for me --

  • Starbucks: out
  • CNBC: in.
    • best show of the day: "Halftime Report."
      • favorite analyst: Josh Brown
    • worst show: "The Exchange."
    • best host: Scott Wapner
  • Christmas spirit: in
  • travel: in
  • cheese and crackers:
    • saltines: out
    • club: in

Airline fares: roundtrip, DFW (Dallas, Texas) to PDX (Portland, Oregon)

  • most American Airlines fares in December for this trip trend toward $900 per person per roundtrip
  • I found a great fare at $475, round trip
  • return trip leaves early in the a.m.
  • thank goodness Portland's light rail runs 24/7

Blink Camera system: wow, wow, wow -- I might talk about this later.

  • top five indoor security cameras; Blink barely makes the list.
  • can probably hook it up in less than five minute
    • link the sync module to your wi-fi source
    • link the camera to the sync module
    • done!
  • tech support: awesome
  • you need Blink, if:
    • you are away from your home on a regular basis; better than ADT? Probably. 
      • why? You are in control 
      • high value assets? You may want a combination of Blink and ADT
    • you have unattached buildings

***********************
This May Be My Favorite Photo Of The Season
To Date

Their first tree.


All those super-rich folks with gigantic trees on the top of their monster SUVs and a huge wreath on the grill ... and then this ... their first tree. In their USAF flight jackets.

Is this not the most previous picture you've ever seen?

Market -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46196INV.

Early morning trading:

  • BRK-B: down 
  • AAPL: up.
  • MSFT: up. 
  • Boeing: looking great.

Talking heads on CNBC:

  • yesterday
    • asset manager said he would never have any one stock make up as much as 13% of his overall portfolio;
    • didn't say what the upper limit was but I inferred 10%
    • Buffett's equity portfolio: 50% in one company
  • today
    • expect a hard landing 
    • his definition of a recession: job loss -- that was it -- a recession was a job loss
    • says unemployment now trending toward 1.5% and when "we" hit 1.5% there's no stopping 2.0%
    • buy bonds 
    • during his remarks, Fed spokesman more bullish
    • market turned solid green

Ten-year: 4.5% seems to be the number that "we're" supposed to watch

  • today: below 4.4% and trending down

***************************
Dividends

One can do the math.


1.25%.

Social media had a lot of negative comments. In fact, this suggests a very, very nice portfolio, certainly not 60/40.

************************
My First Car

Many years ago.

And still looks good.

****************************
Starting To Look A Lot Like Christmas

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- November 26, 2023

Locator: 46195B.

WTI: $75.68.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023: 144 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 714 for the year
39174, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-4MBHX,
39172, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N Federal 158-93-16-14-2MBHX,
39171, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N 158-93-16-14-1MBHX,
37110, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH,

Tuesday, November 28, 2023: 140 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 710 for the year
39820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 6A-29-32-158N-1000W-MBH-LL,
39814, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 10-18H2, the North Tarentaise wells are tracked here.
39145, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H, the "LK" for Little Knife; these wells are tracked here.
37109, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,

RBN Energy: polar vortex 2013 - 2014 propane market chaos and what it means today.

It’s the 10-year anniversary of a polar vortex winter that’s seared into the memories of every propaner who lived through it. Shortages. High prices. Government inquiries. Sure, there were difficulties during that winter in the markets for natural gas and fuel oil too, but it was particularly bad for propane. It seemed like a perfect storm hit the propane market right where it hurt the most — in the heart of propane country: the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. A lot has changed since then, but it’s important to look back at what went wrong, what’s been done to make a repeat of that chaotic winter far less likely, and what those events still mean for the propane market today. 

The propane market conditions that cascaded into the chaos of 2013-14 started innocently enough, with rain — lots of it. In the fall of 2013, propane marketers were enjoying 5X the usual seasonal demand from the market for drying crops, especially corn. On November 10, 2013, the Midwest was enjoying the largest bumper crop of corn in the record books up to that time, and due to the very rainy conditions before the harvest, the “wet” corn needed a lot more drying than usual. But that’s not all that was going on. One of the historical conduits for propane into the Midwest from Western Canada, the Cochin Pipeline, was being reversed and converted by Kinder Morgan, the operator in those days — the pipe’s now owned by Pembina — from propane to diluent service so natural gasoline and naphtha could be moved up to Alberta. At the same time, propane exports from the Gulf Coast were ramping up, pulling more supplies that otherwise would have gone to the Midwest down to supply the export market. By October 1, the price of propane in Conway, KS — the primary hub for Midwest and Midcontinent supplies — had increased to $1/gallon, up from about $0.85/gallon during the summer. [Note that in this blog we are going to focus on the Midwest propane market, which felt the most significant impact that winter, but similar developments were happening in the Northeast and to a lesser extent in the Southeast and Gulf Coast.]

Monday, November 27, 2023

“Things” Are Moving Way Too Fast — November 27, 2023

Locator: 46194TECH.

Late night reading. Very, very interesting.

  • A mutual fund (e.g., BRK) doesn’t need a hoard of cash. But tech companies do.
  • More on this tomorrow. 

**************************
Other Headlines

Dead: small modular new reactors. Will die on the vine for the same reasons most EV start-ups won't survive. Peter Zeihan.

Falling: Micron.

Amazon: palm reading. Remember Jason Bourne?

Amazon: record-breaking sales in 11-day stretch leading up to and including Black Friday.

Burned out?  How to cancel digital subscriptions.

Burning out? ONE cutting 25% of its workforce. A lot packed into that short article.

Supply chain issues? Lego. Link here. This is amazing considering we’re already in a recession (Charlie Munger). I do not ever recall seeing so many Lego sets on backorder. Including the new $629.99 (no typo) Eiffel Tower. The good news: free shipping. And no sales tax if you live in Montana. Will ship by December 11, 2023. The Hogwarts Express is already back to $499.99 after dropping to $399.99 during the Black Friday promotion.Yes, on back order.

Promising: dividends in 2024 — Barron’s.

Energy: anticipate stellar performance in 2024 — Barron’s. This article was posted several months ago.

Renewable energy: investing rout this past year is causing a panic. FT. Link here.

Record: Americans flying.

Delfin Project: update.

Rivian: can it survive five more years?

Boeing: more room to run. Barron's: says another 25%.

UK wind: link here.