Appalachia Update -- Pipeline-Constrained -- Winter Coming -- October 10, 2023

Locator: 45707B.

Skies: wow, what a gorgeous morning. Absolutely clear skies and just before dawn: bright crescent moon and Venus to the northeast, and Jupiter, a bit smaller but just as bright to the southwest.

Sales: Amazon, Walmart, Target and other large retailers launched US sales, dangling discounts on narrow selections of merchandise more than six weeks before Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year.

Renewables funds (investing): record outflow as rising rates, costs hit shares. Link here. The energy transition is over; we just don't know it yet. -- Peter Zeihan.

Smith and Wesson: new headquarters opened in Maryville, TN -- just half an hour from Knoxville, TX, and just minutes west from ... Springfield, TN. Previous home for S&W? Springfield, Massachusetts.

GM (investing): another workers' strike -- this time in Canada. Barron's. Fifteen percent is a long, long way from 40%.

Unifor workers at Ford ratified a new agreement in late September. The margin was relatively thin with 54% of workers voting yes. The deal included base wage increases of roughly 15% to 20% over the life of the three-year contract. It also included “significant increases to retirement programs including raised pension benefit rate and increased contributions,” according to Ford.

MNF: Green Bay loses to Las Vegas. 

Ledecky: nothing new here. I just don't want folks to forget about her as she prepares for the 2024 Olympics.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.02

Wednesday, October 11, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 596 for the year
39453, conf, Slawson, Golden Eye Federal 3-2H,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
38834, conf, Enerplus, Hay Draw 148-97-27-344-2H,

Tuesday, October 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 593 for the year
39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H,

RBN Energy: Appalachia gas basis outlook in a pipeline-constrained world.

Appalachian natural gas producers and marketers are adapting to a new status quo — a world where new pipeline takeaway capacity out of the Northeast is hard to come by and is more or less capped ad infinitum. Without the assurance of pipeline expansions, regional gas producers are no longer drilling with abandon in hopes that the capacity will eventually get built. Instead, producers are practicing restraint by slowing drilling activity, delaying completions and choking back producing wells to manage their inventory during periods of lower demand and prices. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what this new playbook will mean for pricing trends in the supply basin.