The Day After -- More To Follow -- NVDA -- August 24, 2023

NVDA "Monday morning" phrases:

• double-ordering: no, it's not happening
• data centers: yes, that's what it is all about
• generative AI: governments around the world to global corporations -- every government leader, every CEO is asking what is "gen AI"all about 
• biggest customer who is not a cloud service provider: META (not a cloud service provider)
  
• CNBC: "we've never seen a revenue jump like this ever before in history of the market"
• EPS: up 492% from a year ago 
• price target: generally around $600; some suggest $1,100
  
• CPUs burn hot; GPUs run faster; less hot
• Nvidia: GPUs. 
• Intel, AMD: CPUs
  

Dow: will open down a bit today but mostly due to Boeing; problems with new a/c again.

Market: market returns over five years -- meaningless for millennials --> alpha generation?

Suggestion: google 4th industrial revolution. 

The facts don't matter; the data doesn't matter. It's what the "influencers" have to say. Link here.

Say what? Sold way too soon! Link here to Barron's. This story was posted by Barron's before Nvidia reported blow-out earnings and the meteoric rise of NVDA yesterday:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.07. Saudi Arabia starting to suggest deeper cuts for longer.

Friday, August 25, 2023: 45 for the month; 247 for the quarter, 492 for the year
39447, conf, CLR, Edward 7-23H,

Thursday, August 24, 2023: 44 for the month; 246 for the quarter, 491 for the year
38993, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-8,
37932, conf, BR, Parrish 3C TFH,

RBN Energy: metrics favor large oil-focused shale producers in race to replenish reserves, part 2. Archived.

As this brutally hot summer meanders towards Labor Day, we’re all facing rising gasoline prices as we head to the beach, to barbecues, or to the mall for back-to-school shopping. The main culprit is crude oil production cutbacks by the Russians and Saudis and the situation would likely be much more precarious were it not for strong U.S. shale output keeping gasoline prices from climbing to $5 a gallon or more — except in California, of course. Crucial to sustaining that production long-term is not just replenishing U.S. oil reserves but growing them. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at crude oil and natural gas reserves with an analysis of the critical issue of reserve replacement by major oil-focused U.S. producers.

In Say You’ll be There, we raised the question: “How much longer can the U.S.’s shale reserves support U.S. oil and gas production growth?” EIA estimates of “proved” reserves, which are assumed to have at least a 90% chance of eventual recovery under existing economic and operating conditions, imply about 10 years of remaining volumes of crude oil and condensate and 10-17 years of natural gas in the major producing basins. Critical to maintaining or improving these inventories are the rate at which U.S. producers are replacing the reserves they use up via production. Equally critical (especially in an era of heightened scrutiny over capital efficiency) is the price paid to achieve that rate.

David Messler over at oilprice.com: