Odds And Ends -- August 9, 2023

Locator: 45398OIL.

The weekly EIA petroleum report, link here. For now, I will keep posting it, but the report has become a joke and is clearly suspect. Last week, the EIA reported a draw of 17million bbls of crude oil from commercial stocks without comment. There's no way that was possible. That was a "re-set" -- pure and simple. Today's report:

• US crude oil is reported to have increased by a fairly large amount, 5.9 million bbls after reporting a 17-million-bbl draw last week. This volatility is so off-base ... supposedly, our commercial crude oil in storage, at 445.6 million bbls, is slightly below the five-year average, which, of course, includes the two plague years, making the five-year metric as meaningless as everything else in this report.
• US crude oil imports: yawn.
• refiners are operating pretty much "pedal to the metal," at 93.8%. My hunch: SecEnergy Granholm is unaware.
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls last week as farmers start returning to their field to begin harvesting; distillates are now 17% below the five-year average.
• and, finally, jet fuel supplied was up a modest 4.3% compared with same four-week period last year.

Last week, with a reported 17-million-bbl draw, the price of oil fell; this week, with a fairly substantial increase, the price of oil rose significantly, confirming that the EIA data is not only suspect, but does not impact daily WTI price changes.

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Odds And Ends

Germany: in a recession, and it appears to be getting worse. The Bundesbank is looking to use gold in its "gold account" to offset losses. Sources.

Texas grid: it will hit 106°F today here in north Texas. It's bright, sunny, and windy. ERCOT will have no trouble meeting demand, but it will be close between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. tonight.

WTI: at $83.59. 

OPEC+: production slumps to two-year low. Platts Survey.

Back on the table: do you remember that Canadian pipeline to the west coast that the Canadian indigenous folks were protesting, doing what they could to stop it? 

Well, now, they want in and Canada is looking at letting the indigenous folks buy a piece of the pipeline. Especially now that COP has shown considerable interest in Athabasca bitumen. 

Back-of-the-envelope:

• $25 billion / 10 years = $2.5 billion / year
• $2.5 billion / year / 365 days = $6,849,315 / day.
• $6,849,315 / 600,000 bbls / day = $11 / bbl to ship the crude oil

This $11-per-bbl-to-transport does not include maintenance or operating costs; does not include interest payments on the $25 billion; does not include opportunity cost.

Compare:

GM: still struggling to make EVs. Link here.