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Thursday, August 24, 2023

Meaningless Charts -- For The Umpteenth Time -- August 24, 2023

Locator: 45479OIL.  

It will be nice when Bloomberg starts reading the blog (again). 

A reader sent me Bloomberg's chart of the day -- thank you very much. 

Anyone that understands "US shale" and the "oil sector" knows that this graphic is absolutely meaningless. 

It's an important chart, I suppose, as a point of information ... but that raises a philosophical question -- can a meaningless chart be important? Yes, in the context of emotional traders, seeing the data in a meaningless chart can be important. For me, this speaks volumes, that with US crude oil in storage at record lows, the price of WTI continues to drop.

The "choke point" is not "oil in man-made storage." The choke point -- well, there are two choke points when it comes to fossil fuel we can use for transportation:

  • refining; and,
  • distribution of the final product.

Even adding the above chart to the three below, adds nothing to the story. It's a worthless chart -- the one above. If one doesn't agree, then note that WTI is down again today despite record low crude oil inventories.

From before, for the umpteenth time:

Locator: 45474HURRICANESEASON. 

Two links:

  • next hurricane could shut in 40% of GOM produuction, Alex Kimani. Link here.
  • low US oil reserves to clash with "above normal" hurricane season; link here.
    • note: completely wrong, by the way -- hurricanes have minimal effect on crude oil reserves; WTI is measured at Cushing, OK; hurricanes hitting TX/LA have major effect on refining -- it's gasoline stores and production at risk; oil supplies? We'll do just fine.
    • Hurricane Harvey: August, 2017; Texas; category 4; devastating; gasoline supplies greatly impacted, much simply because 18-wheelers couldn't get to and from the coast
    • there are no gasoline pipelines that run from the coast direct to our neighborhood filling stations

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The Data

From yesterday, re-posting.

Locator: 45471B.

Gasoline prices are at "recent"highs.

The Biden administration is "monitoring" this. What concerns them most?

Gasoline demand and status, link here, three charts:



Refiners, weekly EIA petroleum report:

  • refiners are operating at 94.5% of their capacity; pedal to the metal

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Commentary

The Biden administration says they are monitoring the three graphics above. What are they monitoring? What are they worried about?

I'm thinking back to August 17, 2017, to September 3, 2017.

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