Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Above $76 -- July 21, 2023

Locator: 45176B.

WTI:$76.50.

Monday, July 24, 2023: 81 for the month; 189 for the quarter, 444 for the year
39507, conf, CLR, Vance 2-14H,

Sunday, July 23, 2023: 80 for the month; 188 for the quarter, 443 for the year
39135, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-33-28H,

Saturday, July 22, 2023: 79 for the month; 187 for the quarter, 442 for the year
None.

Friday, July 21, 2023: 79 for the month; 187 for the quarter, 442 for the year
39357, conf, CRL, Vance 6-14H,
38685, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-2,
35020, conf, BR, Lillibridge 1A MBH, 

RBN Energy: how will steeper tolls on Trans Mountain impact crude flows. 

Western Canada’s Trans Mountain Expansion Project, better-known as TMX, has experienced more than its share of setbacks over the past 10 years: environmental protests, legal challenges, financing issues, an ownership change, and even a serious flooding event in 2021. [But at least it's being completed? Compare the Keystone XL?]

But it seems the 590-Mb/d expansion of the now-300-Mb/d Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) system will finally become a reality by early 2024, enabling large-scale exports of Alberta-sourced crude oil to Asian markets. There’s a catch, though. The project’s long delays and other issues resulted in massive cost overruns that are now being reflected in the preliminary tolls for the soon-to-be-combined Trans Mountain system. The proposed toll increase is so large that it will cost a similar amount to ship heavy crude oil to tidewater on Trans Mountain as it would on the competing Enbridge system to the U.S. Gulf Coast for “re-export,” despite the latter being three times the distance. In today’s blog, we discuss the history of the Trans Mountain expansion, its cost overruns and the calculations that went into the proposed tolls — the kicker being that those tolls could end up being even higher.

It would be safe to say that no other crude oil pipeline project in Canadian history has seen as much scrutiny, analysis, legal and environmental challenges — and immense cost overruns — as TMX.  Intended to nearly triple the crude oil shipping capacity of the existing TMP system, the expansion appears to be inching closer to final completion with the recent submission of preliminary tolls (referred to as tariffs in the U.S.) that would be applied to shippers on the combined TMP/TMX system once the expansion is in operation.