Tesla Delivers -- 2Q23

Locator: 45876TSLA.  

Comments

Tesla doing Tesla things. 

• deliveries were up 83% YoY to 466,140. 
• production increased 85% YoY to 479,400.
• both records. 

Tracking / Forecasts
Various (link here)

EVs: in round numbers --

• 2022:
• F: sold 61,575 EVs in 2022: became second-largest EV manufacturer in the US, behind Tesla
• F-150 Lightning price:
• $40K to $92K
  
• GM:
• sold fewer than 25,000 EVs in 2022
• 2023:
• Tesla: 1.1 million EVs; see below: 1.82 million in 2023.
• F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
  
• run rate
• F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
• on track to triple production y/y
• sold 3,600 through February, 2023
• list price: $52K to $97K
  
• Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
  
• GM:
• to deliver 400,000 EVs by end of 2023, link here; 
• will build a third factory to build thee Silverado EV
• currently: Factory Zero and the Orion assembly plant

Deliveries

Forecast:

• IBD: 445,000.
• CNBC note: 445,924

Actual:

• CNBC note: 446,140
• no update on forecast for full year (2023) numbers (last estimate/forecast: 1.1 million vehicles)
  

Later, from The WSJ:

Sunday’s results mean Tesla’s rate of growth can slow in the second half to 24% compared with the same period a year ago and still meet Wall Street expectations for 1.82 million deliveries this year. Some investors are hopeful that Tesla’s price cuts hit a bottom in the second quarter.

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Actual

Link here.

Total deliveries Q2 2023: 466,140.

Total production Q2 2023: 479,700.

The numbers beat analysts’ expectations and indicate that deliveries rose 83% year-over-year for Tesla after Elon Musk’s auto business added manufacturing capacity, and ramped up production at its vehicle assembly plant in Austin, Texas.

Tesla groups deliveries into two categories but does not report individual model or region-specific numbers.

The second quarter of 2023 marked the fifth period in a row when Tesla reported a higher level of vehicles produced compared to deliveries.

During the second quarter of last year, Tesla reported 254,695 deliveries, and in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla reported 422,875 deliveries.

During the second quarter of 2022, Tesla produced 258,580 vehicles and last quarter it produced 440,808 vehicles.

Deliveries are a carefully watched number by Tesla shareholders and are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by the company.

Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report deliveries of 445,924 for the period ending June 30, 2023.

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Forecast

Locator: 45076TSLA.

Link here.

Tesla is slated to announce record deliveries for the second quarter, probably on Sunday, July 2, 2023.

Wall Street predicts Tesla deliveries growing 74% to 445,000, according to FactSet.

The big year-over-year increase reflects easy comparisons to Q2 2022, when Tesla's Shanghai plant was shut down for Covid lockdowns for several weeks. Also, the Berlin and Austin, Texas, plants were slowly ramping up output.

On Monday, Deutsche Bank raised its TSLA stock price target to 230 from 200, and maintained a buy rating on the shares. The firm revised its estimates for Q2 deliveries to 448,000 units, above analyst consensus. Deutsche Bank predicts about 168,000 vehicles sold in North America, 153,000 in China, 87,000 in Europe and 23,000 in the rest of the world.