Say What! UNP -- July 26, 2023

Locator: 45213INV.  

Thirteenth day in this rally. Last time we saw a consecutive thirteen days in a rally? 1987.

Incredible. Absolutely not on my bingo card today.

BRK -- owns BNSF (BNI) -- was up nicely earlier today; has since pulled back. His biggest holding, AAPL, and even AAPL is up a bit today.

My not-ready-for-prime-time-comment to a reader: 

Perfect storm:

• Dow Theory (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp). UNP.
  
• today — last rate hike — market took it in stride. When was last time Fed raised rates and Dow goes up? 
• even LCID up 4%. Start-ups need "cheap money."
  
• inflation dropping incredibly fast — over 9% not too long ago, now, maybe 3%. 
• analysts already talking about rate cuts — first rate cut next summer / autumn? 
• presidential election year always a great year for the economy. 
• recession obsession? Sure. But even that talk is getting old.

But let's assume Dow Theory is correct, and market rallies through next year ... and then .... a rate cut.

Katie, bar the door.

By they way, talking heads on CNBC mentioned several times that JPow had egg on his face by suggesting a year ago (or whenever it was) that "inflation was transitory."

Most interesting: no one has asked JPow and JPow has not volunteered why he thought that "inflation was transitory." If someone asked that question and if JPow answered honestly, I think we might have an interesting answer.