Anticipation: XOM -- 2Q23 Earnings -- Some Concerns -- July 8, 2023

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Link here for history of XOM's quarterly earnings.

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ExxonMobil expects to book sharply lower second-quarter earnings compared to the same period last year and to the first quarter, due to low natural gas prices and lower refining margins.

For the first quarter this year, Exxon booked record earnings for a first quarter of $11.4 billion, double from the $5.48 billion for the first quarter of 2022 and down from $12.75 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022.

The per-share earnings of $2.79 for the first quarter of 2023 beat The Wall Street Journal consensus estimate of $2.60.

In an SEC filing on Wednesday, July 5, 2023, the U.S. supermajor estimates that its second-quarter earnings would be lower than the $11.4-billion profit for Q1, due to up to $2.2 billion lower earnings in the upstream division because of low U.S. benchmark natural gas prices, and another up to $2.2 billion decline in the energy products division, due to lower industry margins.

Overall, Exxon’s second-quarter earnings are expected at around $7.8 billion, a sharp drop from $11.4 billion for Q1, and an even steeper slump compared to the $17.85 billion earnings for the second quarter of 2022, when oil and natural gas prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Earnings:

• whisper numbers;
• whisper number: n/a
• consensus: $2.29
• revenue: $89.28 billion 
• trading at $103 
• earnings estimate, full year (2023: range, 8.59 - 13.34
• 103/12 = 8.6
  
• historic; 
• historic (much better site)
• 2Q22 (reported July 29, 2022):
• estimate: $3.80
  
• actual: $4.14
• on July 7, 2022, trading at: $86.08
• a p/e of 7.0