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Tuesday, June 27, 2023

It's Gonna Be Close -- 1.8% -- GDP -- First Half, 2023

Locator: 45088GDP. 

WTI: drops almost 2% after this data was posted. WTI now trading down $1.26, at $68.11.

  • For investors, it appears:
    • anticipation of GDP six months out --> drives WTI --> share price of major E&P companies.
  • at close, WTI dropped 2.5% for the day, trading at $67.70 after hours despite bullish API data
    • in line with my analysis, also —> GDP forecast drives WTI; tell me I’m crazy but WTI action says … recession.

GDPNow: this should be the last estimate for the 2Q23 GDP before Friday, June 20, 2023, when the government's official final reading of the US GDP for 1Q23 is released.

Link here.

2Q23, estimate:

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