Holy Mackerel -- A Miss By 54%? Job Growth -- June 1, 2023

Locator: 44810JOBS.
Locator: 44810ECON.

Overheard in Starbucks this morning:

• Liz Sonders, "Yesterday the data was in line with past recessions."
• Charlie Munger, "Yeah, we're in a mild recession."
• ADP bureaucrat working from "home," "Here, hold my coffee. You're looking at the wrong data."
  

I'm old enough to know two things:

• business cycles are called cycles for a reason; recessions cycle through; yees, we will eventually have another recession;
• job growth like this is not consistent with a recession

But if this is a recession, give me more.

• I can accumulate equities at bargain basement prices; and,
• I can park my money almost anywhere and get 5%.

Checking the math:

• Okay, let's see.
• estimated: 180,000
• had it been 188,000, that would have been a 4% miss [(188 - 180 / 180 = 4.4%]
• had it been 208,000, that would have been a 16% miss [(208 - 180) / 180 = 15.6%]
• had it been 228,000, that would have been a 27% miss [(228 - 180) / 180 = 26.7%]

• But .... drum roll .... we got:

278,000

• Doing the math: (278,000 - 180,000), that would have been a 54% miss (208 - 178) / 178 = 54.4%].

• Checking:
• 180,000 * 1.544 = 278,000.