Movers And Shakers, Traders On Wall Street -- Anticipating The Recession -- May 1, 2023

Locator: 44510I.  

Tech:

Infrastructure:

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Construction Boom

Frustrating the Fed. Link to The Wall Journal.

“Macroeconomic cycles take years to play out.” 

Even when construction employment declines, the effects might not be felt immediately in the broader economy.

During the relatively fast-crashing 2008 financial crisis, the number of people working in residential construction peaked in April 2006 and had fallen roughly 15% before overall employment began to drop about two years later.  

The 2008 crash kicked off a deep recession and a yearslong home-building slump that left the U.S. severely short of housing. [So, let's do it again!]

Meanwhile, millions of homeowners are locked into historically low mortgage rates, which is keeping existing homes off the market and stoking demand for new construction.

New-home sales climbed 9.6% in March.

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The States That Did Not Revolt

Real estate ... borrowing.

Story here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/27-states-ask-biden-end-his-disaster-policy-forcing-good-credit-borrowers-subsidize-risky-mortgages.

The states that did not revolt:

• the entire west coast and New Mexico
• Minnesota, Montana
  
• New York and all of New England (which includes the primary state, New Hampshire)
  
• most interesting: Georgia.

The states that did revolt (27): 

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Includes three swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida. Also includes a huge primary state: Iowa.