EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- May 17, 2023

Locator: 44667B.

Home page here. Link here. 

Ironically, this headline foreshadows thoughts on the Keystone XL pipeline that I had planned to post later today. I may or may not get to that today.

 

The numbers:

• US crude oil in commercial storage:
• increased by a whopping 5.0 million bbls; with commercial storage at 467.6 million bbls, US crude oil inventories are slightly below the  five-year average (we'll take about this later)
• days supply, crude oil, has increased again; now at 29.5 days.
  
• US refiners are operating at a very, very respectable 92.0% of their capacity
  
• imports: averaged 6.9 million bbls; this is at the high range of historical data; 
• imports increased by a whopping 1.306 million bopd from the previous week
• imports averaged 6.3 million bopd, 0.3% more than same period last year
  
• distillate inventories increased by 0.1 million bbls last week
• distillate inventories are 16% below the five-year average
  
• propane inventories increased by 2.3 million bbls; an astounding 30% above the five-year average
  
• jet fuel supplied: up by 4.4% compared with same four-week period last year

Comments:

• I doubt any analyst "worth his salt," as they say, is interested in the historical five-year average
• much more important: extrapolating forward three months, and six months
• I doubt anyone can accurately extrapolate even one year out any more, nor is it really necessary
  
• if an analyst feels the need to look backward, that analyst needs to do an "eight-year look-back" and exclude the calendar years 2020, 2021, and 2022; and,
• having said that, even that look-back is pretty worthless except to put things in perspective
  

• the cancellation of the Keystone years ago had a profound effect on global energy, US oil, and Canadian oil
• when first proposed and through the Obama administration I was firmly in support of the Keystone XL project; in hindsight, my "beliefs" were naive, emotional, and tribal;
• the Keystone XL would have disproportionately benefited TC, Canada, and US refiners but would have done little for the US in general (in so many ways)
  
• somewhere along the line, I flipped. I don't recall exactly when, but without question the Bakken would have withered on the vine and the Permian would have been slower to develop had the Keystone XL been completed prior to or during the Obama administration
• but the Bakken / Permian aspect were minor details in the big scheme of things
• I don't have time / won't find time to debate this. 
• Sorry. Not sorry.

• I am not an apologist, by any means for the current SecEnergy nor POTUS with regard to energy policy in the US, but one can argue they are at least listening, or in the case of SecEnergy, fast studies.
• I prefer the current process than the process one might expect under the former president
• that's also a huge flip-flop for me but after blogging on global oil and US oil with a focus on the Bakken since 2007, I've learned a lot