Themes -- 2024

Locator: 442024C.

Link here.

The 2024 Presidential Race

Tracked here.

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Energy transition supercycle: link here.

• transition to electrification

Information: it's all about AI.

• the fourth industrial revolution.
• terabyte events. 
• huge demand for electricity will only grow.
• the cloud shows no evidence of slowing.
  

De-globalization: transition accelerates

Energy transition is dead: we may or may not realize it for years;

• China has never bought into energy transition; India? Not sure.
• the first to fall: Norway -- though "they" won't admit it 
• "fell" in 2023: Germany; has industrialized their country.
  

EVs: have lost their luster

• update on EVs, February, 2024.
• 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
• high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
• it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
• state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

NATO expansion:

• Finland and Sweden will be part of NATO by 2024; probably 2023 [Sweden officially a member on March 1, 2024]. Finland became a member on April 4, 2023. 
• Finland has a 830-mile border with Russia, which upon accession more than doubled NATO's pre-existing border with Russia.
• Ukraine: once war is over

Themes Posted in 2023 for 2024.
With updates.

 

Vision Pro.

• maintenance: preventive maintenance vs predictive maintenance.
• treadmill

AI / AV / AR:

• OpenAI --> ChatGPT

EVs

• transition continues  
• "holy grail" -- a universal supercharger: Ford and GM both partner with Tesla for superchargers (June, 2023)
  

Fourth Industrial Revolution

• will be tracked here.

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Published Late In 2024

Completely unexpected: the refining stories coming out of California this past week. Reminder: this is not simply about refining oil to produce gasoline, this is about refining oil to produce California's unique CARBOB formulation. CNN: the shrinking number of oil refineries in the state .... California will likely have to source it from out-of-state (Gulf of Mexico refineries?) -- Politico. Oil and gasoline from out-of-state generally shipped in by sea. Some piped in from the north. Watch for an RBN Energy blog on this issue.

Mostly US: overriding themes going into 2025 (and beyond):

• the changing global geopolitical environment
  
• Netanyahu sees an opportunity to significantly change the dynamics in the Mideast
• amazingly, Iran says it won't retaliate if Israel limits its retaliation to strikes on military targets only; 
• WTI barely budged late this evening when Israel launched on Iran
• not even a banner headline on Drudge
  
• speaks volumes about the Iranian support for its current leader, and Netanyahu knows it
  
• "Putin, quo vadis?"
• seriously, quo vadis?
• perhaps the first "adult book" I ever read -- read it in 8th grade, along with Carl Sandburg's Lincoln (one of the volumes); and, Giants in the Earth, Ole Rølvaag 
• read the latter again a few years ago; had an even greater impact on me
• as did one of my teachers at that time, a huge impact: Ron Thue.
  
• the next president of the United States
• is this a 1964 redux -- Goldwater vs LBJ?
• the election of the "uns"? Unhinged, unstable vs unqualified, untested?
  
• the incredible energy demands of AI; 
• the demand is so high, many say we need to return to nuclear energy
  
• investing
• the NASDAQ -- and a small number of companies -- are reshaping investing
• yes, we're back to the nifty fifty, but this time, the NASDAQ is in the spotlight, not the NYSE
• to compete, the NYSE feels it needs to expand trading to 22 hours / day
• Robinhood
• crypto
• the public perceptions of the Fed's influence on US economy
  
• Covid: had a bigger, lasting effect than folks realize 
• even the most thick-headed now understand the cause of inflation 
• even if they fail to admit it
  
• genetics, also bigger than folks realize
  
• "inflation" will kill the energy transition story, if it already hasn't
  
• the economic divide between the US and the EU continues to widen
• the reason? Energy. The US has check "all the above" when it comes to energy
• retail success: 
• US corporations in the tier below the trillion-dollar market caps: will only survive by reputation for customer service
• this will extend all the way down to mom-and-pop retail stores in all but the smallest communities
  

Is the US dollar weak or strong right now?

Why was the dollar so strong in 1985?

What was the US inflation rate in 1985?