TGIF -- Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- CVX, XOM Beat -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44488B.  

Poll: there's a poll being posted today that 75% of Americans feel the economy is getting worse. That was sent to me by a reader. 

My reply:

The other 25% live in Texas. 

Most of those folks who say the economy is getting worse never lived through the Panic of 1873.

The Panic of 1873 triggered the first 'Great Depression' in the United States and abroad. Lasting from September 1873 until 1878/9, the economic downturn then became known as the Long Depression after the stock market crash of 1929.

Market: it looks like literally, almost every Fortune 500 company, every well-known Main Street company -- except energy -- is making money the old-fashioned way: laying off workers. Meta, Amazon, Intel, Lyft, and the list goes on and on. 

Earnings tomorrow, updated as results come in, link here:

• BRK — forecast: $5,522.20.
• CVX — beats. 
• XOM — first quarter record profit. Huge beat. Firing on all cylinders. Playing hardball with PXD.

XOM:  income rose to $11.43 billion, or $2.79 per share, compared with $5.48 billion a year ago which included a writedown to exit Russia. Barron’s says $2.83. Whisper number: $2.69. Wall Street number: $2.65. Pre-market, Friday: turns green.

Eggs: !!! Link here.

• wholesale:
• December, 2022: $5.46 / dozen
• April, 26, 2023: $1.22 / dozen
• retail price could drop below $1.00 / dozen
• my hunch: prices will stay high -- stores need to recoup their losses
• had nothing (very little) to do with "inflation" per se (hot economy, wage pressure, government spending -- all the usual suspects)
  
• avian flu
• on another note, I doubt wholesale egg prices got anywhere near $5.46 a dozen in Texas; if so, Target and Walmart were taking a huge loss; at best they were breaking even.
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs; 40.

Peter Zeihan newsletter. Peter has a very, very interesting take on the Iranian oil tanker seizure, a them he addressed in his 2022 book.

WTI: $75.10.

Natural gas: $2.294.

Sunday, April 30, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 307 for the year
39183, conf, Ragnar, Dagny 1-2H,
38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B,
31213 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH,

Saturday, April 29, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
None.

Friday, April 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
38524, conf, Oasis, Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B,
38524, conf, Oasis, Rynn Lee Federal 5201 41-2 6B,
38438, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-8,

RBN Energy: the IRA's sourcing rules chart a narrow path to full EV tax credits, part 3. 

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which became law several months ago, may have an enormous impact on the U.S. energy landscape over the long run, but many of its key provisions, including the much-discussed tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs), have been missing one big thing: rules of the road. Federal agencies such as the Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Treasury Department are responsible for implementing and enforcing laws passed by Congress, which are not only lengthy and complex, but often leave out important details. That’s where federal rulemaking comes into play, filling in the details and addressing questions left unanswered in the original legislation. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the rules surrounding the New Clean Vehicle Credit (NCVC) are taking shape, the detailed steps that automakers will have to take to meet new sourcing and content requirements, and what it all means for prospective EV buyers.