Can't Get Folks Laid Off Fast Enough Seems To Be The New Concern -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44324B.  

The "jobs report." 

By the way, the "jobs report" was "right on the money." See end of this post, scroll to the bottom.

Regardless of headlines, it was an incredibly bullish report. 

From The WSJ:  

The US added 236,000 jobs in March. See what Morningstar thinks about this (scroll to end of blog below).

Considering that the last few elections have been running on putting Americans back to work, it appears it's now time for that policy to change. The Fed and JPow can't raise rates fast enough to get more folks laid off. 

As folks know, U-1 interests me, not U-3. Also, we need to take a look at labor force participation.

And, of course, this, but still need to see more folks laid off before Wall Street feels more comfortable.

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Forecast And Results
A "Goldilocks Number"

Goldilocks: right on the number, 236,00 vs 238,000 forecast. The market "baked in" 238,000 and any number below that that was bullish. In addition, U-3 unemployment dropping from 3.6 to 3.5 gives bragging rights to President Biden.

And then get this: average hourly earnings incrased 4.2% on a 12-month basis, the lowest level since June, 2021.

Link here.

Forecast:

• to add 238,000 jobs (March, 2023). Actual: 236,000 jobs.
  
• unemployment rate to stay at 3.6%
• a 200,000+ increase in March would still be "quite strong" [Actual: the US added 236,000 jobs in March.]
• the US added an average of 173,000 new jobs a month in the year before the onset of the pandemic in 2020

Note: according to Morningstar --

A big change in how jobless claims are calculated, which shows more layoffs this year than previously reported, won't affect the monthly employment numbers. They are compiled differently and use a separate seasonal-adjustment process that has already been put into effect.

Previously, actual:

• February: 311,000
• January: 504,000