Basking In The Sun -- April 12, 2023

Locator: 44385B.

Thursday: slowest day of the week. No mail arrives on Thursday. Most economic news comes out Monday - Wednesday. I guess we get a jobs reports on Thursday.

Jobless report: link here: new formula for adjusting unemployment applications on a seasonal basis led to an increase in said applications, and now we get a lede that suggests said applications are at their highest level in more than a year. 

Well, isn't that what they said would happen? Better reporting would have included numbers based on old formula as we transition to new formula over six months. Whatever. 

Almost everyone polled / asked says we're in a recession. 

Me? A "Goldilocks" economy. The Fed says the US has way too many people working and we need more layoffs. Bonds are back, I guess. I don't know. From the linked article:

U.S. applications for jobless benefits rose to their highest level in more than a year, but remain at relatively low levels despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy and job market in its battle against inflation.

Jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 8 rose by 11,000 to 239,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the most since January of 2022 when 251,000 people filed for unemployment benefits. [239,000 / 330 million = 0.07%] [239/251 = 95.2%].

The four-week moving average of claims, which evens out some of the week-to-week fluctuations, rose by 2,250 to 240,000 [=0.9%]. That’s the most since November of 2021 -- a little over a year ago..

Last week, the Labor Department unveiled revised estimates of the number of weekly applications for jobless benefits under a new formula it is using to reflect seasonal adjustments. The new formula, which led to an increase in its weekly tally, is intended to more accurately capture seasonal patterns in job losses.

The Warthog, the A-10. I honestly did not know it was still flying. Wow. For the archives. Over at The WSJ.