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Sunday, April 30, 2023

Disney -- Iger -- Streaming -- Update -- The Other Shoe Is Yet To Fall -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44505D.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Disney, Iger working the issue.

Bullets:

  • 7,000 layoffs by summer
  • across all segments: Disney Entertainment, ESPN, Disney Parks, Experiences and Products
  • but also reports point to a sizable number of cuts at Disney+
  • top three executives were let go over the weekend
  • these and other actions represent a larger shift for the streaming division's future
Iger, who stepped back into the CEO position in November, has remained hyper-focused on profitability even as investors shift focus away from subscriber growth and put more emphasis on margins. [Didn't we say that just a few days ago with respect to EVs?]
The company's direct-to-consumer division, which includes Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+, shed a whopping $4 billion-plus in its fiscal 2022 ended October 1, after it spent an estimated $33 billion on content last year.
Since that time, Iger has worked hard to establish new revenue streams like Disney's recently launched ad-supported tier, in addition to various price increases to help pare losses.
In its latest quarter, streaming losses narrowed to $1.1 billion in Q1 from $1.5 billion in Q4 — ahead of the company's previous guidance.
Still, losses were up compared to the year-ago period when direct-to-consumer losses totaled $593 million.
Iger reaffirmed the company's outlook of reaching streaming profitability by the year 2024.

Fascinating story. A billion here and a billion there isn't going to "cut it." We're going to need to see a huge change. The other show is yet to fall.

Random Factoid -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44504B.

From two plays in the Bakken (northern and southern) to one play, the northern: Whiting. 

From missed opportunities to rising star: Oasis. 

Oasis and Whiting recently merged --> Chord.

Just between you and me, recent Oasis wells seem to be several times better than those of Whiting (anecdotal, not a statistical analysis by any means).

Perhaps it's location, location, location, but both are concentrated in the northern Bakken, in a very, very small geographical area.  

Usual disclaimers apply. Comments are often opinions. It is hard to separate facts from opinion on the blog, and that's why I call them factoids.

21383 -- Oasis Zaye Federal With Small Halo Effect -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44503B.

See this well:

38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B, Camp.

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20232141511896
1-20233607341645
12-20223466236897
11-20223596129359
10-202201306

The well:

  • 21383, 3,194, Oasis, Zaye Federal 5210 34-2H, Camp, t11/12; cum 312K 2/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202328397039524817558705560
BAKKEN1-202321281523882430307602968
BAKKEN12-202283503548047
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-202215450746403755541192
BAKKEN7-2022311037116885426422431162
BAKKEN6-202230105086879221271305770
BAKKEN5-2022226835806191094301766
BAKKEN4-20222888494182719741603332
BAKKEN3-202231110112178451754935773

For Consideraton, Contemplation, And The Archives -- Not For Discussion -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44502B. 

Updates

Later:

7:05 p.m. CT: agree, 100% -- with office workers still refusing to return to work and vacancies in high-rise business offices in NYC trending toward 50% -- yes, Charlie Munger has this exactly right --

7:03 p.m. CT:

Original Post




XOM:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44501B.  

The wells:

  • 31210, conf, BR, Gladstonoe 8-1-13MBH,
  • 38774, conf,  Whiting, Crane Creek Sstate 11-16-2TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-202353615357
1-202365457305
12-202274377826
11-202255214949
  • 31258, conf, BR, Gladstone 7-1-13TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 38856, conf,  Whiting, Littlefield 11-21-2HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20231494516843
1-20231905620165
12-20222053015157
11-202264153942
  • 36401, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-24-26-16HU, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 39261, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H6, Werner, no production data,
  • 39260, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H5, Werner, no production data,
  • 36404, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-244-25-13H3, Mandaree, no production data,
  • 31211 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 6-1-13MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 37176, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-5, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2023244090
2-20233024044205
1-20232681535023
12-20224448834917
11-20223169818307
  • 31212 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 5-1-13TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 39183, conf, Ragnar, Dagny 1-2H, Norwegian Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-202311890
1-20231594332
  • 38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20232141511896
1-20233607341645
12-20223466236897
11-20223596129359
10-202201306
  • 31213 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44500B. 

Wednesday, May 100, 2023: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year 
None.

Tuesday, May 9, 2023: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year
None.

Monday, May 8, 2023: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year 
None.

Sunday, May 7, 2023: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year
31210, conf, BR, Gladstonoe 8-1-13MBH,

Saturday, May 6, 2023: 62 for the month; 62 for the quarter, 317 for the year
None. 

Friday, May 5, 2023: 62 for the month; 62 for the quarter, 317 for the year
38774, conf,  Whiting, Crane Creek Sstate 11-16-2TFH,
31258, conf, BR, Gladstone 7-1-13TFH,

Thursday, May 4, 2023: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 315 for the year
38856, conf,  Whiting, Littlefield 11-21-2HU,
36401, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-24-26-16HU,
 
Wednesday, May 3, 2023: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 313 for the year
39261, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H6,
39260, conf, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H5,
36404, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-244-25-13H3,
31211 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 6-1-13MBH,

Tuesday, May 2, 2023: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 309 for the year
37176, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-5,

Monday, May 1, 2023: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 308 for the year
31212 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 5-1-13TFH,

Sunday, April 30, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 307 for the year
39183, conf, Ragnar, Dagny 1-2H,
38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B,
31213 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH,

Saturday, April 29, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
None.

Saturday, April 29, 2023

Updating 16611 -- April 29, 2023

Locator: 44499B. 

Production Updates

October 7, 2023: see the initial production data for these incredible wells.

Original Post 

The wells:

  • 39361, drl/conf, MRO, Skip 31-29H, Bailey,
  • 39368, drl/conf, MRO, Red 31-29TFH, Bailey,
  • 39369, drl/conf, MRO, Amber 31-29H, Bailey,
  • 39370, drl/conf, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH, Bailey,
  • 39371, drl/conf, MRO, Thompson 44-20TFH, Bailey,
  • 39372, drl/conf, MRO, Sandra 44-20TFH, Bailey,
  • 39373, drl/conf, MRO, Louise 34-20TFH, Bailey,
  • 39374, drl/conf, MRO, Peggy 24-20H, Bailey,
  • 39375, drl/conf, MRO, Beth 24-20TFH, Bailey,
  • 39376, drl/conf, MRO, Whalen 14-20H, Bailey,
  • 39377, drl/conf, MRO, Leah 14-200TFH, Bailey,


US Ports -- April 29, 2023

Locator: 44498E. 

A reader sent me this link: from chaos to quiet -- the two ports in San Pedro Harbor, the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach.

This is an incredible story.

First, a digression. 

Because of the blog, I have learned more about "everything" than I ever would have learned otherwise. Some subjects / issues that come to mind:

  • Devon Energy
  • semiconductors; the chip war
  • the "streaming" war
  • US beer
  • US ports

Now, back to the story at hand.

After reading the story linked above, I did some of my own research (without the help of ChatGPT).

These are the links:

There are so many story lines here. I would like to talk about them, but I'm poolside, the evening is incredibly beautiful and I'm simply going to relax and listen to music.

***************************
The Economy

The other day a reader sent me a link to a story that 75% of Americans think the economy is getting worse.

I replied, that the other 25% live in Texas.

Today, after the jiu-jitsu tournament, my wife and I went to have lunch at our favorite restaurant, at least for the moment) but we did not stop. There was not one open parking space in the very ample parking lot. We also knew that our second favorite restaurant would be even worse, so we had to explore a new restaurant. 

It certainly doesn't appear the economy is getting worse, at least not in north Texas.

We then went to the annual art festival in Southlake, TX. Talking to the vendors, it sounds like north Texas is one of their better venues on the national circuit.

White Mischief And The Coronation -- April 29, 2023

Locator: 23457BIO.

I've had more "fun" with one book than any other of which I can recall, a book that a reader mentioned more than a year ago.

I don't have a "central" location where I "track" this book but googling key words on the blog will take you to my notes.

From an earlier entry regarding this book:

First, a little bit from White Mischief, by James Fox.
Shortly after the murder of her lover, Josslyn Hay, Diana set off on a safari with her husband, Jock Broughton, who was charged with the murder of Joss. Diana was one of the best hunters, male or female, on African safaris, at the time.

So, that was back in 1941 or thereabouts, not earlier, so possibly 1942.

Josslyn Hay?

You say?

Well, what has that reader who brought White Mischief to my attention in the first place found now?

From an e-mail in the last 48 hours, with regard to the upcoming coronation:

Merlin Hay, the 24th Earl of Errol, will act as the Lord High Constable of Scotland, will carry a silver baton or staff.

This was all pretty easy to track back, all are from wiki entries unless otherwise stated:

  • Merlin Hay, 24th Earl of Errol, elder son of Diana Hay, 23rd Countess of Errol and Sir Iain Moncreiffe of that ilk ... born April 20, 1948 (now 75 year old)
  • Diana Hay, January 5, 1926 - May 16, 1978 (52 years old); cause of death never publicly disclosed. [Look at birth dates.]
    • Moncreiffe married twice, firstly Diana Hay, December 19, 1946
      • marriage dissolved in 1964
    • 1966 married his second wife Hermione Patricia Faulkner
  • Josslyn Victor Hay, 22nd Earl of Erroll (May 11, 1901 - January 24, 1941); victim of murder, and subject of White Mischief.
And to think people say they will be bored with the coronation. LOL. Which reminds me, I still need to finish Downton Abbey. I have been putting together my 2023 Summer Reading Program.

Electricity -- Personal -- April 29, 2023

Locator: 44497E.  

Our monthly utility bill.  The only energy bill we get every month.

We did not make special efforts this past month to conserve electricity.

Blogging Is Delayed Today -- April 29, 2023

Locator: 44496N. 

Blogging will be delayed until later this afternoon due to family commitments.

Sophia is participating in a jiu-jitsu tournament this morning, in Frisco, the nation's "city of sport,"  north of Dallas. Link here.




Friday, April 28, 2023

Parent Well, XTO Werre Trust -- Production Update -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44495B.  
 
The Werre Trust wells are tracked here.
 
The parent well, link here, with full production:
  • 18294, 341, XTO, Werre Trust 44X-34H, Bear Creek, t3/10; cum 582K 5/20; cum 661K 2/23.
The Werre trust wells are followed in many locations on the blog.

BR Activity In Dimmick Lake -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44494B.

The two pads in 12-151-96.

  • 36241, loc/A, BR, Stortroen 1C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 157K 3/23; off line;
  • 36242, loc/A, BR, Maverick 1E MBH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 198K 3/23; off line;
  • 36243, loc/A, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 167K 3/23; off line;
  • 36244, loc/IA, BR, Maverick 2C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 198K 3/23; off line;


  • 36245, drl/A, BR, Maverick 2D MBH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 118K 3/23;  nice well;
  • 36246, drl/IA, BR, Maverick 2E TFH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 73K 3/23; off line; off line;
  • 36247, drl/A, BR, Stortroen 2C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 72K 3/23; off line;
  • 36248, drl/A, BR, Stortroen 2D MBH, Dimmick Lake, t--; cum 61K 3/23; off line;

The map:


So, with all that activity on those two pads, let's look at #18732. I didn't do this until one minute ago. The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. The reader will be seeing this along with me for the first time. Amazing.

18732, 558, CLR, Stortroen 1-13T, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 301K 2/23;

  • unlike the newer wells noted above, which are BR wells, this well is a CLR well.
  • this well was drilled back in 2020, thirteen years ago:
  • initial production was lousy

  • by early 2022 (one year ago), the well was a dying well:

  • then all of a sudden, it's a new well, 9/22:

#17213 also showed a jump in production but it is currently off line; it went off line 1022; I'll come back to #17231 later, once it's back on line.

Big Day -- BR With Eight New Permits, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County; Scout Tickets Now Reporting Production Through March, 2023 -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44493B. 

Quite a day; note the VIX:

Valero: net income more than triples.  

Tallgrass: announces open seasons for Pony Express Pipeline. Link here.

  • PXP; looking to expand;
  • Guernsey, WY, to Cushing, OK
  • 230,000 bbls per day

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $76.73.

Natural gas: $2.402

Eight new permits, #39860 - #39867, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for four Clemens wells and four Demicks Lake wells, SESW 7-151-96; 
      • to be sited 423 FSL and between 1857 FWL and 2249 FWL; 

The parent well sited in that section, and the one to the south: see this post.

  • 17182, 2,130, BR, Clemens 24-7H, Dimmick Lake, t5/10; cum 237K 3/23;
  • 16791, 436, BR, Demicks Lake 41-18H, Dimmick Lake, t3/08; cum 195K 3/23;

Week 17: April 24, 2023 -- April 30, 2023

Locator: 44494B. 

Of note: either there has been a huge amount of oil activity this past week, or Hart Energy, pedal to the metal, has been posting a whole lot more than before.

Top story:

  • Joe Biden is still president
  • Joe Biden announces he will run for re-election; no party opponent; probably no party debates;
  • more and more it looks like Trump will not participate in GOP debates;

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues; China could be working peace agreement; 
    • Ukraine "destroys" huge Russian-Crimean oil depot

Top international energy story


Top national non-energy story:

  • INTC reports worse first quarter earnings ever; shares gain after news ("it could have been worse")
  • Sexual identity; transgender becoming wedge issue leading up to national elections.
  • This is not a bull market; imagine what a bull market must feel like.

Top national energy story:

  • XOM reports best first quarter earnings ever -- in its 140-year history
    • XOM shares hit all-time high.
  • California pushing the envelope on phasing out ICEs, diesel engines -- cars, trucks, rail starting within ten years
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment
  • the Disney-DeSantis spat continues; Iger taking Ron to court;

Oil Production Going Forward -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44492E. 

Keep these two graphs / charts in mind when listening to Chevron's CEO talk about Venezuela.

These two graphs reflect the amount of oil produced by either company. Over the past few years, the price of oil has had its ups and downs but in the big scheme of things has been running in a fairly narrow band suggesting volume of oil produced is directly related to share price.




Now, think about this, link here:

We Now Have The Data: When The US Was "Back To Normal" And How Will We Recognize The Next Recession -- Aprill 28, 2023

Locator: 44491E. 

Finally, we have the data.

Two questions are now answered:

  • when was the US back to "normal," coming out of the pandemic? and,
  • how do we know when we are in a recession?

Both graphs look pretty identical.

I chose the five-year graph as opposed to the "max" graph because it seems to support my argument better, or perhaps better said, make it "more obvious" or "easier to see."

In addition, the longer one goes back in time, the number of "economic events" make the discussion more difficult.

The two graphs, as I noted, are almost identical.

Prior to 1990s, there were four companies:

  • Exxon
  • Mobil
  • Chevron
  • Texaco

After 2021, there were two:

  • XOM
  • CVX

From the two graphs, one can argue, the US was "back to normal, "economically-speaking" after the pandemic lockdown, in March, 2022.

The recession will be "obvious" when we have at least six months of a new red line clearly below the March, 2022 - March, 2023 line.

The US government won't "officially declare" a recession until a minimum of one to two years after the fact.

"Clearly below" will be in the neighborhood of a 20% correction. 

The charts:


***************************
More Evidence That "We're Back To Normal"

Link here.

Unbelievable? April 28, 2023

Locator: 44490P.

XOM: By the way, before we get started. 

How much oil was refined last quarter compared to previous calendar first quarters? I have no idea but it must be a lot. Think about this. XOM reports the largest first quarter profit in their 140-year history, and yet oil prices were "way down." Two things: margins and volume. Actually three/four things: subtract expenses (including taxes, etc). 

But XOM must be hitting on all four cylinders -- increased volume, increased margins, cost control, and tax management -- to set a first quarter record like that.

Has XOM been laying off employees? If so, not being widely reported.

Now, back to our regular programming:

I assume "duly elected."

If so, I find this reprehensible, unless I'm missing something or there's more to the story. I know nothing more about this story than this "headline."

WWJD?

And with that, I'm off the net for awhile. Or not.

Maybe I should do a poll.

Wow, I'm in a feisty mood this morning, but I've never felt better with regard to the market. But I am getting tired of all the crazy reporting and headlines on the business pages.

Exhibit A:

By the way, I still need to get back to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, BKR and all their excuses. Lack of out-of-the-box thinking.

Before I get started on WBCMBRK, look at BRK's holdings -- all of them and percent of each holding as part of the overall portfolio.

Then review reasons given by CM and WB why they are holding a huge cash hoard and not spending it.

It has to do with the SEC and "ownership" rules. Link here.

Knock Three Times -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44489B.  

Knock three times. When I sold books doors-to-door one summer during college, many decades ago, the Southwestern Publishing sales training folks told us that one had to tell folks something three times before they heard what one was saying.

XOM: merger -- 1998.
CVX: merger -- 2001.

XOM — hit a 52-week high today; in fact, it appears to be an all-time high.

I'm going to post this three times in case folks miss it the first two times. Then tell me the economy is getting worse.



Hess: Guyana will displace the Bakken for Hess. Sure. In 2025. Hart Energy. As a reminder, I turn the management of my portfolio over to Sophia when I turn 75 years old. Just a couple of years from now.

Bolt: Sophia won't be buying a Bolt. Barron's has thoughts on that.

CAT: link here.

The CAT I'm buying:

Or: seriously, when I see Lego sets either on "backorder," "unavailable," "limited quantities," "limit 2," or "hard to find," it's hard for me to take seriously the economy is getting worse. Link here.  By the way folks are not buying Lego sets in quantity for their kids and friends. They're buying them as investments. All Lego sets are eventually retired, some sooner than others, and sets like the one below will triple in value once it's retired. Somehow -- and I don't know the backstory -- Amazon seems to have an "unlimited" supply of retired Lego sets. Lego does not sell sets directly to consumers (retail) once the set has been retired. It's very possible, Amazon -- or an Amazon re-seller or intermediary -- is buying any Lego stock directly from Lego once the product is retired. Lego announces every year which sets will be retired that year, giving retail buyers plenty of time to buy a set that will be retired.

The eight to follow today:

Biggest treat today! Bloomberg shares thoughts on US shale. Whoo-hoo. And not behind a paywall.

Cost inflation, spanning everything from frack gear to laborers, is moderating after running white-hot for the last two years. A drop in natural gas drilling is freeing up rigs, trucks and materials for oil fields like those in the Permian Basin. Halliburton Co., the biggest provider of shale services, is relocating crews. In the past week, Baker Hughes Co. and SLB, the other two major service companies, warned that producer spending will grow less than expected. Helmerich & Payne Inc. is seeing a drop in demand for rigs. Lium, a research firm, said bids for fracking have slipped more than 20% since January. Halliburton was more bullish, with Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller saying his company could defend its pricing power and that “quality services will remain tight.” But investors were less sure, with the stock failing to register a bump despite the highest first-quarter profit in more than a decade.

Chart of the day, from Bloomberg:

Transit time from India to Europe:

Transit time from Texas to Europe: THREE WEEKS.

How Texas is saving Europe: link here. This was a year ago .....

TGIF -- Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- CVX, XOM Beat -- April 28, 2023

Locator: 44488B.  

Poll: there's a poll being posted today that 75% of Americans feel the economy is getting worse. That was sent to me by a reader. 

My reply:
The other 25% live in Texas. 
Most of those folks who say the economy is getting worse never lived through the Panic of 1873.
The Panic of 1873 triggered the first 'Great Depression' in the United States and abroad. Lasting from September 1873 until 1878/9, the economic downturn then became known as the Long Depression after the stock market crash of 1929.

Market: it looks like literally, almost every Fortune 500 company, every well-known Main Street company -- except energy -- is making money the old-fashioned way: laying off workers. Meta, Amazon, Intel, Lyft, and the list goes on and on. 

Earnings tomorrow, updated as results come in, link here:

  • BRK — forecast: $5,522.20.
  • CVX — beats. 
  • XOM — first quarter record profit. Huge beat. Firing on all cylinders. Playing hardball with PXD.

XOM:  income rose to $11.43 billion, or $2.79 per share, compared with $5.48 billion a year ago which included a writedown to exit Russia. Barron’s says $2.83. Whisper number: $2.69. Wall Street number: $2.65. Pre-market, Friday: turns green.

Eggs: !!! Link here.

  • wholesale:
    • December, 2022: $5.46 / dozen
    • April, 26, 2023: $1.22 / dozen
  • retail price could drop below $1.00 / dozen
  • my hunch: prices will stay high -- stores need to recoup their losses
  • had nothing (very little) to do with "inflation" per se (hot economy, wage pressure, government spending -- all the usual suspects)
  • avian flu
  • on another note, I doubt wholesale egg prices got anywhere near $5.46 a dozen in Texas; if so, Target and Walmart were taking a huge loss; at best they were breaking even.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs; 40.

Peter Zeihan newsletter. Peter has a very, very interesting take on the Iranian oil tanker seizure, a them he addressed in his 2022 book.

WTI: $75.10.

Natural gas: $2.294.

Sunday, April 30, 2023: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 307 for the year
39183, conf, Ragnar, Dagny 1-2H,
38523, conf, Oasis, Rilynn Federal 5201 41-2 2B,
31213 (no typo), conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13MBH,

Saturday, April 29, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
None.

Friday, April 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 304 for the year
38524, conf, Oasis, Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B,
38524, conf, Oasis, Rynn Lee Federal 5201 41-2 6B,
38438, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-8,

RBN Energy: the IRA's sourcing rules chart a narrow path to full EV tax credits, part 3

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which became law several months ago, may have an enormous impact on the U.S. energy landscape over the long run, but many of its key provisions, including the much-discussed tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs), have been missing one big thing: rules of the road. Federal agencies such as the Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Treasury Department are responsible for implementing and enforcing laws passed by Congress, which are not only lengthy and complex, but often leave out important details. That’s where federal rulemaking comes into play, filling in the details and addressing questions left unanswered in the original legislation. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the rules surrounding the New Clean Vehicle Credit (NCVC) are taking shape, the detailed steps that automakers will have to take to meet new sourcing and content requirements, and what it all means for prospective EV buyers.

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Hess With Four New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed -- April 27, 2023

Locator: 44487B.  

Earnings tomorrow, updated as results come in, link here:

  • BRK — forecast: $5,522.20.
  • CVX — beats. 
  • XOM — first quarter record profit. Huge beat. Firing on all cylinders. Playing hardball with PXD.

XOM:  income rose to $11.43 billion, or $2.79 per share, compared with $5.48 billion a year ago which included a writedown to exit Russia. Barron’s says $2.83. Whisper number: $2.69. Wall Street number: $2.65. Pre-market, Friday: turns green.

Eggs: !!!

Best link today: here, WSJ. Finally.

  • I put neither eggs nor butter in the refrigerator.

Good for him, without an agent? This could have been yours, Kaepernick.

Poolside. Thursday night, after an incredible day on Wall Street, enjoying a -- what am I enjoying? -- oh, there it is: a rum and Coke. And watching the mallards in the pool. They certainly are fun to watch.

I would give a lot to be able to share a beer with Hunter S Thompson but I would give even more to re-live a moment in time in 2005. And 1977. And 1975. Or whenever it was. I think my adult life began on a cross country trip from Nashville, TN, to Westfield, NJ, in 1975. I still remember the conversation with the waitress in eastern Tennessee, 7:00 p.m. or thereabouts on a Friday night, probably in late May.  

As detailed as my diaries are, I wish I had written more.

Wow, how I'm looking forward to summer. When you hit a certain age, for me, 72 years of age, every day is more precious than the day before.That's why I spend every evening poolside when I can. Tomorrow, a huge hailstorm / tornado weather predicted.

Memories -- back to Menwith Hill Station, Yorkshire, England. Listening to BBC all night long. Best music ever. Seriously, listening to the radio all night long, not wanting to fall asleep, knowing that I would never enjoy life so much. I literally watched the minutes tick by for twelve hours. For me, the best part of life is/was all about relationships. 

But I digress.

Link here.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 40. 

WTI: $74.73.

Natural gas: $2.346.

Four new permits, #39856 - #39859, inclusive;

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Tioga (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for two EN-Lokken wells and two EN-Charles Wood wells, NENE 17-157-94; 
      • to be sited 404 FNL and between 1052 FEL and 1151 FEL.

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • CLR (11): three Chloe (Williams); eight McClintock (Williams);
  • Oasis (5): five Domalakes, Cottonwood oil field (first "discovered by Fidelity/MDU), now Oasis, Burke County.

Tim Cook, Steve Jobs, Apple, And Disney -- April 23, 2023

Flashback, from November 14, 2019

First things first: Apple, Inc., was scheduled to pay its quarterly dividend today. Tim Cook owns around 900,000 shares. If so, he should receive a check for about $700,000 today. At one time the largest AAPL shareholder, he still may be, was Arthur Levinson with around 1.2 million shares of AAPL. Steve Jobs accumulated more wealth from Disney than from Apple. Whatever. How did I get on this track? Time to jump off.

And Then We Have Tucker -- April 27, 2023

Locator: 34500TU.

Most egregious story of the day, from The Los Angeles Times:

  • there's no way this went on for eleven years without "anyone" knowing about this;
  • a few others need to spend time in prison
  • but let's go ahead and say what others are thinking: well, those UCLA co-eds are attractive; ready-made for a TV series: "Baywatch, the sequel: UCLA 90024." In high definition, 3-D, and optimized for Apple AR/VR
  • meanwhile, the GOP is worried about RuPaul in schools and free cans of beer to Dylan; oh, give me a break

Ditto:

Readers: I'm getting surprisingly few (as in "none) e-mails regarding this subject. Maybe time to stir the tea leaves / ashes: link here. I don't need a weatherman to tell me which way the wind is blowing. LOL.

When one fires the #1 talk show moderator, there has to be something "huge" that precipitated that
the firing came out of the blue

  • there had been no public controversy -- ever -- about whether he stays or goes
  • it just happened
  • and, yet, still no explanation

Apple savings, two links:

  • too convenient? WSJ. Thesis: folks will use their savings account like an ATM machine.
    • my first thought: a different reading of human behavior
    • would you rather park your cash in a non-interest paying checking account?
    • more to say on this later, perhaps
  • Apple: sucking people deeper into their ecosystem. Okay. Link here.
    • bigger news: did you see how "big" Apple Savings will become!

Motley Fool on BRK. Link here. Wow, it must be a slow day everywhere. 

California bullet train (s): now there are two.

  • update on first one. Yes, I'm having a slow start, also, to the day.
  • second one: LA to LV.
  • one wonders: would a "big thinker / change agent" think differently
  • how about an LA airport, perhaps at the junction of I-210 and I-15 dedicated to nothing but non-stops to LV (and return, of course)
    • completely streamline the process
    • start by allowing on TSA pre-check, LV-vetted flyers onto the complex and then go from there
    • golf cart lifts from car to terminal
    • guarantee no more than 15 minutes inside terminal
    • no reservations: 
      • scheduled departures on the hour at peak travel times; on the even hour during peak periods
      • planes depart when 90% full, regardless of scheduled time of departure
      • regardless, no plane sits on ground longer than 20 minutes
    • think of this as a air-way (like the subway)
    • this could be loads of fun 

Apple Valley: has anyone looked at the map; by the time you've driven to Apple Valley, you might as well just finish the drive to Las Vegas.

  • San Pedro to Apple Valley: two hours
  • Huntington Beach to Apple Valley: two hours
  • flight time, Apple Valley to Las Vegas: one hour 
  • San Pedro to I-210 / I-15 junction: one hour

Received bipartisan support this past week: