Busy, Busy, Busy Day -- TGIF -- March 10, 2023

Updates 

Whatever happened to Erin Burnett? The cable ratings. From here to obscurity. Link here.

Chips: updating the semiconductors. Link here. INTC: too little, too late?

JPow's two big problems.  a run on banks and the implosion of cryptocurrency. Link here.

• SIVB: link here.
  

• SVB: wiki.
  
• Pre-market: down another 44%. Could open under $60.  [Later: could open under $35. Some feel that SIVB is NOT a one-off.]
  
• Culprit: Treasuries. 
• Five days, from $275 to $106. 
• SIVB: wiki -- 

  On 9 March 2023, shares of SVB Financial plunged more than 62% after the company proposed a share sale to shore up its balance sheet which had suffered a $1.8 billion loss on Treasuries due to rising inflation.

•  Cryptocurrency: Silvergate Capital.

• JPow's third big problem. Credibility. 

He's publicly committed to 2% inflation rate. "Everyone" knows that is impossible and in a modern economy like the US, a 2% inflation rate is fantasy and, in fact, is actually detrimental to the well-being of the nation and the working class. A two-percent inflation rate could be seen by some as a personal blood feud for JPow and that he might be willing to take the nation down if he has to, to get to 2%. It will be interesting to see if JPow will moderate his statements at risk of "negative" headlines  on "flip-flopping."

AAPL and what it will buy next? No one knows. Link here.

Lego. Update.

EVs. Lordstown, and GM. Link here.

• Big rigs: Daimler, Cummins, and Navistar taking the early lead. Link here.

LNG. The 21st century -- America's century. Link here.  

Copper. Copper demand forecast to increase 600% by 2030. Link here.

Best buy of the day. In the past two weeks, a 2-liter bottle of Diet Coke went from $2.59 to $2.79 to $2.99. But yesterday at Market Street, Colleyville, a 2-liter bottle of Zero Coke was on sale for $1.79. Yes, I stocked up. Two. LOL.

Original Post

Jobs report today:

• up 311K vs 225K estimate.
• unemployment rate: 3.6%; up from 3.4%.
• 0.2% increase vs 0.3% to 0.4%: average hourly wage increase, m/m; one of the smallest ever
• Steve Liesman:
• yada, yada, yada -- good in terms of putting folks back to work
• not sure why unemployment number rose
  
• the market likes these numbers; Dow goes from minus 90 to positive 20, back to minus 40 back to plus 30.
  

Most analysts track U-3. Not me. U-1. Link here. If one actually looks at the definitions of the various categories, one will understand why I prefer U-1.

High on my list for today:

• Whatever happened to Erin Burnett? The cable ratings.
• Chips: updating the semiconductors.
• JPow's two big problems.  a run on banks and the implosion of cryptocurrency.
• JPow's third big problem.
  
• AAPL and what it will buy next?
• Lego.
• EVs.
• LNG. 
• Copper.
  

Comments on the above.

• Huge fail. Erin's move to obscurity.
• Wiki has new numbers for chips. 
• CNBC starting to sound frantic. Government talking heads are telling us to stay calm. Never a good combination.
• Credibility.
  
• No one knows.
• Folks have a lot of money to spend on plastic bricks.
• More and more it looks like 2023 is the "make or break year" for EV manufacturers. Rivian may be the biggest surprise.
• The 21st century: America's century. 
• The numbers are simply surprising.
  

***********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $75.13.

Natural gas: $2.484.

Sunday, March 12, 2023: 39 for the month; 201 for the quarter, 201 for the year
39138, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 7-5H,
39130, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 4-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,

Saturday, March 11, 2023: 37 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 199 for the year
39131, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Amelia Grace 4-6-7-158N-99W-MBH,

Friday, March 10, 2023: 36 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 198 for the year
39137, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 6-5H1,
39132, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 3-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,

RBN Energy: how much will price impact future US crude production growth? Archived.

For the first 10 years of the Shale Revolution, it was a foregone conclusion: High prices stimulated more drilling, and more drilling meant higher production. It worked in both directions. When prices crashed, so did production. The correlation was great. The relationships were right on cue in 2014-15 when $100/bbl crude crashed to $30, rebounded to $60 by 2019, and wiped out in 2020 when the COVID meltdown hit.

But then the market shifted. As prices ramped up in 2021 — eventually to astronomical levels in 2022 — the phenomenon of producer discipline kicked in, with E&Ps capping their drilling programs and returning a significant slice of their rising free cash flow to their shareholders.

The near-term market implications of this new dynamic have been extensively documented in the RBN blogosphere. But what does it mean for the future? Especially for intrepid energy analytics companies (like RBN) that, by necessity, must project producer behavior far into the future to determine what production will look like next year, next decade and even further over the horizon. In this new RBN blog series, we will examine that dilemma, the assumptions RBN makes, and what our forecasts for the next few years look like.