It's All About Free Cash Flow -- February 8, 2023

Updates

Later, 1:43 p.m. PT: TTE -- link below.

TotalEnergies saw its net profit double in 2022 to a record $36.2 billion and announced an increase in dividends and share repurchases after the best annual results for the company and for Big Oil ever. 

The French supermajor reported on Wednesday, February 8, 2023, $36.2 billion in adjusted net income for 2022, double from a year earlier, thanks to higher oil and gas production, higher prices, a jump in LNG sales, and what it described as a “historic” performance in the downstream segment.

For the fourth quarter of 2022, TotalEnergies reported cash flow of $9.1 billion, and an adjusted net income of $7.6 billion, up by 11% from Q4 2021. For the full year 2022, the company generated $45.7 billion in cash flow. 

4 x 9.1 = $36.4 billion, so an "actual" $45.7 billion in cash flow is ... well, stupendous. 

Let's put that in come perspective (remember, we're in a recession and an unprecedented supply chain snafu):

Original Post

For those that missed it:

• start here;
• then, here;
• then, here, and parse that headline;
• then, note that WTI is still below $80 this morning, even after adding another 1% to its price from yesterday;
• then, note that Iran expects $100-oil when Chinese demand rebounds;
• then, most important(ly) for investors, literally no profit-taking yet this morning, or very little:
• XOM: just added two cents:
• CVX: down 1.23%
• DVN: down 0.6%
• EOG: up 1%:
• HES: down 0.3%
• PXD: flat

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage increased by 2.4 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now stands 4% above the five-year average and WTI still goes up
• refiners operating at 87.9% of capacity;
• distillates remain 15% below the five-year average;
• jet fuel supplied was .... up a whopping 6.6%.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46. Note comments in "Focus on Fracking" regarding rig counts and then consider:

• the number of active rigs in North Dakota; and,
• it's the middle of winter with some of the harshest weather ever;

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $77.69.

Natural gas: $2.525.

Thursday, February 9, 2023: 23 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 93 for the year
39010, conf, CLR, Rhonda 7-28H,

Wednesday, February 8, 2023: 22 for the month; 92 for the quarter, 92 for the year
39020, conf, CLR, Rhonda 6-28H1,
38916, conf, Rampart Energy, Coteau 2,
38466, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 8-36-156N-98W-TFH,
38465, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Riley Anne 9-36-156N-98W-MBH,

RBN Energy: to survive DOE's hydrogen hub cutdown, certain factors may prove critical, part 2. Archived.

The U.S. is gearing up to provide billions of dollars in financial support for a series of regional clean hydrogen hubs and had what amounts to an informal cutdown at the end of December, announcing that 33 project proponents had been formally encouraged to submit a full application this spring. Although the Department of Energy (DOE) didn’t name any of the projects on the “encouraged” list, we’ve been able to identify many of the proposals — and add five more in today’s blog — even though a lot of project details remain under wraps. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at the new projects on our list and examine the major factors that are likely to influence a project’s viability.

A fifth project we can add to our list is the Heartland Hydrogen Hub, which is centered on a partnership between Bakken Energy and BNSF Railway, which could utilize clean hydrogen produced from natural gas across its rail network, which covers much of the U.S. west of Chicago. Planning began with a 2021 agreement between North Dakota-based clean hydrogen producer Bakken Energy and Mitsubishi Power Americas to develop a hydrogen hub in the state. North Dakota — along with its neighbors Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin — agreed in October 2022 to work with Bakken Energy and BNSF on the hydrogen hub proposal. BNSF also signed a memorandum of understanding with Cummins Inc. and Schneider Carriers Inc. to work on incorporating the needs of long-haul trucking into the hub proposal.