Over A Dozen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Few Days -- February 24, 2023

Entertainment: Marlowe getting bad reviews. I had planned on seeing this movie, but with these reviews, nope.

Housing: month-over-month, expectations, seasonally adjusted, 620,000 forecast; came in at 670,000.

Natural gas:

• the US supplied one-half of the natural gas that Europe imported last year
• and that was with Freeport off line

The Fed rate: some say a 6% Fed rate is in the cards. That's not hard to predict.

• fact: the Fed rate is currently in the 4.25 to 4.75% range
• fact: the majority of analysts expect three rate hikes in calendar year 2023
• arithmetic: 0.25 + 025 + 0.25 = 0.75
• arithmetic: 0.75 + 4.75 = 5.5.
• if only one of those three rate hikes is 50 basis points we are at 6.0% for all intents and purposes
• and even without a 50-bp rate hike, 5.5% and 6% are essentially the same except in the minds of CPAs and bankers
• the majority of folks carrying credit card debt are paying 25% interest -- on an annual basis -- on that debt
  

My prediction: talking heads on CNBC will take about the Fed rate only slightly more often than First Take / Get Up talking heads talk about Dak Prescott. Or that guy in yellow or green who went off the grid for the past month or so. I'm blocking on his name.

It gets tedious.

Investing: today --

• I buy during the first and third week of each month, regardless of what the market is doing;
• I have a 40-30-20-5-5 "new-money" allotment strategy
• in February, I took all new money and invested in one sector to better balance my portfolio
• in March, I will get back to the 40-30-20-5-5
• speaking of which, memo to self, for the blog later: "5" "healthcare" "Bezos, Soros, Cook, Ray Dalio, and Mark Cuban -- link here.
  
• today, I will take advantage of the market and invest the first allotment for March, and delay the March investment to the second week in March
• Dow is down almost 400 points at the open; now, at 8:46 a.m. the Dow is down 450 points.

EVs: if JPow stays the course, could this be the death knell for EVs? Today:

• LCID: down 5.4%
• RIVN: down 5.5%
• ARVL: down 3.5% (at 29 cents)
• RIDE: down 5.1% (at $1.05)
• GOEV: down 3.1% (at 76 cents)
• NKLA: down 1%
  
• FSR: down 4.8%
• F: down 2.4% (below $12)
• TSLA: down 4% (below $194)

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Well of interest: #18384. Will post this later. 

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $75.78.

Natural gas: $2.336.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

Friday, February 24, 2023: 68 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year
39016, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H,
36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A,

RBN Energy: as focus on methane intensifies, companies face key challenges, questions.

Over the past five years, the North American oil and gas industry has undertaken a major strategic shift, embracing the global push to decarbonize by, among other things, emphasizing the greener emissions profile of natural gas vs. coal and taking aggressive steps to reduce the volumes of methane, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted during the production, processing and transportation of just about every kind of hydrocarbon. It’s a real challenge, though. Operators face a seemingly endless and overwhelming set of choices about how best to approach emissions reductions, which technologies to use, which programs to join, and how to interpret new emissions-measurement data, to name a few. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a look at how operators can achieve key environmental goals while protecting — even improving — their bottom line and meeting a host of important goals, from reducing the cost of capital and managing investor pressure to improving realized prices and market access.