Focus On Fracking -- February 8, 2023

Due to traveling this week, I lost track of the days. I completely forgot that Sunday has/had come and gone -- I was flying on Sunday. I completely forgot to post / link this week's edition of "Focus on Fracking."

The lede: natural gas prices are at a 25 month low after the largest one month drop in 22 years; commercial crude oil inventories are at a 19 month high; rig count falls by the most in 31 months.

I really can't make any sense of any of this. It's just something to watch for awhile. I guess the fact that rig counts fell by the most in 31 months should get some attention, but it is the middle of winter in the northern hemisphere.

Speaking of which: any update on the Willow project in Alaska?

The EIA "fudge factor" this past week: 438,000 bopd. 

Gasoline?  

With the big increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week rose for the tenth time in twelve weeks and for the 13th time in 25 weeks, increasing by 2,576,000 barrels to 234,598,000 barrels during the week ending January 27th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 1,763,000 barrels during the prior week. 

Our gasoline supplies rose again this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users rose by 348,000 barrels per day to 8,491,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline rose by 48,000 barrels per day to 501,000 barrels per day, and while our exports of gasoline rose by 33,000 barrels per day to 893,000 barrels per day.

But even after 10 recent gasoline inventory increases, our gasoline supplies were still 6.2% below last January 28th's gasoline inventories of 250,037,000 barrels, and about 7% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year.

But demand for gasoline is way down, though there was a modest uptick in the most recent report. 

Speaking of the Willow project in Alaska: did President Biden telegraph that the project will be approved soon so that COP can get started this spring/summer? I think he did.