One-year, five-year, ten-year, and twenty-five year chart (2).
I might come back and annotate these five charts.
Monday, December 12, 2022
For The Archives -- Shale Is In Trouble -- Irina Slav -- December 12, 2022
Link here. Archived.
In a recent analysis of the state of the U.S. shale oil industry, resource investors Goehring and Rozencwajg highlighted these three factors as drivers of the transformation of the industry from its pre-pandemic boom to today’s significantly more measured pace of both production and investment in future supply.
Natural depletion is not something that gets talked about very often when it comes to U.S. shale. In fact, most reports about the industry like to note the resource wealth of the U.S. shale plays, especially the Permian, but fail to add that these plays have been exploited for quite some time now, and in some of them, drilling is not as lucrative as it used to be.
In fact, Goehring and Rozencwajg note that drillers in the Eagle Ford and Bakken formations have largely run out of profitable drilling spots and production in these two plays is likely to plateau soon and start declining.
The resource investment firm mentioned the story of Oasis Petroleum which illustrates this trend: Oasis said in 2017 that it had 20 years’ worth of top drilling locations in the Bakken. But months later, the company quit the Bakken and moved to the Permian with the acquisition of acreage from Forge Energy. Three short years later, it filed for bankruptcy protection. A year later, in 2021, it sold its Permian acreage and merged with Whiting Petroleum in a $6-billion deal.
Best Managed Companies -- US -- Top 250 -- December 12, 2022
For those of you working on your Harvard University MBA by correspondence from home, here you go:
“Managers,” Peter Drucker wrote, “must understand that business results depend on a balance of efforts and results in a number of areas."
Yet if the Drucker Institute’s measure of corporate effectiveness is any indication, that is much easier said than done.
Of the 902 companies that we analyzed this year, a mere seven of them scored 60 or higher, on our 0-100 scale, in every category of performance that we examined: customer satisfaction, employee engagement and development, innovation, social responsibility and financial strength.
The seven companies:
- Accenture PLC
- Apple Inc.
- HP Inc.
- Mastercard Inc.
- Pfizer Inc.
- Procter & Gamble Co.
- Visa Inc.
Of note:
It is not unusual for companies to earn a 60 in one or more areas.
Even Ubiquiti Inc., a technology company that tied for last place overall on our list for 2022, rang up a 63.5 in financial strength.
Seventy-one companies scored a 60 or higher in three or more categories.
But this year, as in years past, those scoring at least a 60 in every area were few and far between.
The company ranked No. 1 on our list overall for 2022, Microsoft Corp. falls short of being an All-Star because of a 48.6 in customer satisfaction.
Incredibly rare to consistently make the list:
The only thing rarer than doing well in every category is doing it over and over again. Just one company—P&G—has been an All-Star six times, scoring a 60 or higher in every component of our model every year since 2017, when our rankings were first published.
Apple has been an All-Star five times.
No other company has pulled off this feat more than three times.
Management Top 250: at this link. The top ten, and their composite score:
- Microsoft, 98.6
- Apple, 83.2
- IBM, 80.9
- GM, 80.7
- Whirlpool, 78.9
- Nvidia, 78.5
- Intel, 78.4
- Amazon, 77.9
- J&J, 77
- Mastercard
The second ten:
- P&G, 76
- HP, 75.
- PFE, 73.3
- Cisco, 73
- Accenture, 72.9
- Adobe, 72.9
- Ford, 72.9
- Visa, 72.9
- Pepsi, 72.7
- XOM, 72.6
Investors, CPI, And The Fed Rate Decision Later This Week -- December 12, 2022
CPI and the Fed rate: a reader sent me this note earlier this evening --
The single piece of data that's most likely to impact the Fed's coming rate decisions is the rate of inflation. At 8.30am ET on December 13, 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the month of November 2022.-- Nov 28, 2022
My not-ready-for -prime-time reply:
Thank you.
My immediate thoughts.
JPow really, really, really wants to hold at 50 bp.
He will hold at 50 bp if the number tomorrow is "reasonably" close to his expectations.
The number will have to be really, really atrocious for JPow to go to 75 bp just before Christmas with house prices plummeting.
I would assume the number was known today (if not last Friday) and the number was being circulated among policy makers like JPow today (and possibly over the weekend).
Many folks would have seen that number by now.
The fact that the market shot up 500 points today suggests the number (the CPI) found its way to Wall Street and folks, though they don't know what JPow will do, feels the number is reasonable enough to allow JPow to stick to 50 bp.
It's impossible for JPow to go to 25 bp but if the CPI number floating around was really really "good," suggesting JPow might go to 25 bp, the market would have been up 1000 points today.
Laser Focused On Dividends -- AMGN -- December 12, 2022
Amgen:
- declares an increase in its quarterly dividend
- previous: $1.94
- new: $2.13; record date, 2/15/23; payable date, 3/8/23;
- (2.13 - 1.94)/1.94 = a 9.7% increase in dividend?
Two New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; 44 Active Rigs -- December 12, 2022
Active rigs: 44.
WTI: $73.40.
Natural gas: $6.610.
Two new permits, #39479 - #39480, inclusive:
- Operators: Grayson Mill, CLR
- Fields: Alger (Mountrail); Chimney Butte (Dunn Counnty)
- Comments:
- Grayson Mill has a permit for an Esther Hynek well, NWNW 10-155-93;
- sited 1063 FNL and 584 FWL;
- CLR has a permit for a Meadowlark well, NENE 6-145-95;
- sited 495 FNL and 450 FEL;
Two permits renewed:
- 32381, BR, Hawktail 11-11MBH-ULW, Dunn County;
- 33149, Petro Harvester, STR1 27-34 163-90 B, Burke County;
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 38184, 1,011, WPX, Moccasin Creek 14-11 6H,
- 38697, 1,576, WPX, Polar Bear 34H,
- 33362, 568, WPX, Bloodaxe 16-3H,
- 33363, 560, WPX, Ironside 16-3TFH,
? -- I Have No Idea -- Maybe We'll Get The Story Later -- Monday, December 12, 2022
Link here. Years ago I was told by a pharmaceutical salesman that the "unicorn" for a pharmaceutical company was a drug that had $1 billion in sales on an annual basis. Note:
This, on a day when the market surged.
Market Movers -- Early Morning Trading -- December 12, 2022
On a day the Dow surges 500 points, TSLA is down over 6%; down over $11; and, trading at $168.
- I remember when folks said TSLA will never go below $200.
From CNBC:
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Covid-19
PFE: up 0.7%. Trading at $52. Pays 3.15%.
The Next Big North Dakota Agricultural Story: The Yellow Pea -- December 12, 2022
From Minot Daily News, August 24, 2021, a little over a year ago: pea breeding facility opens in Minot.
Minot-area farmers could reap benefits from a new yellow pea breeding station in southeast Minot. Food and ag-tech company Benson Hill of St. Louis, Missouri, is working with a select group of area producers to optimize yellow pea genetics for the area’s growing conditions. Yellow pea is one of the fastest-growing sources of protein for plant-based meat alternatives, with a market that is forecasted to reach about $140 billion by 2029, according to industry sources. Despite this, yellow pea has traditionally received little genomic innovation, Benson Hill reported.
Israeli startup Equinom raises $35 million to begin sales: yellow pea -- Bloomberg.
From FoodNavigator, December 3, 2021:
- Roquette unveils "world's largest pea protein plant"
- 200,000-square-foot-plant: Poortage la Prairie, Manitoba, Canada
- first company too operate a major pea protein facilities on both sides of the Atlantic
- company made investment in Israeli startup company Equinom
- Other companies opening new yellow pea facilities:
Link here, May 11, 2021:
ADM has announced plans to build North Dakota’s first-ever dedicated soybean crushing plant and refinery.
Based in Spiritwood, North Dakota, (near Jamestown) the approximately $350 million crush and refining complex will have the capacity to process 150,000 bushels of soybeans per day.
The facility is expected to be complete prior to the 2023 harvest.
In America, the top five producers:
- Montana, North Dakota, Washington, Idaho, Oregon -- 2012
Gov. John Hoeven today joined local officials and company representatives for the grand opening of United Pulse Trading Inc., a $7.5 million pea and lentil splitting facility in Williston, N.D.
The new facility is capable of cleaning, calibrating, peeling, splitting and color sorting 75,000 metric tons of peas and lentils, making it the largest lentil and pea splitting company in the Americas. Hoeven was joined for the ribbon cutting by president and CEO of Alliance Grain Traders, Murad Al-Katib, Williston Mayor Ward Koeser, and other local officials.
United Pulse began operating in 2007 while undergoing major expansions and renovations, and has since created 33 new jobs at the processing facility in Williston and five new jobs at its headquarters in Bismarck. The company, which has roots in Turkey, has moved five new Turkish families to North Dakota.
Rivian Steps Back From Partnership With Mercedes-Benz; Making America Great Again -- December 12, 2022
Market updates: in light of breaking story below, and with general market in the green, how are the EVs doing?
- RIVN: down 4%
- LCID: down 2%
- RIDE: flat today at $1.35; down 14% past five days
Original Post
New tag: "BiMAGA."
How big is this story? It's the number one story over on CNBC right now.
Rivian - Mercedes-Benz: on hold.
- agreement announced just three months ago;
- Rivian took lead to pause
- Rivian: pursuing “the best risk-adjusted returns” on its capital investments
Some think this may have to do with price of energy in Germany.
But it maybe something else -- Biden making America great again -- BiMAGA:
Monday’s news comes at a time when the European Union has raised concerns about the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden in August.
According to the Department of Energy, the IRA “represents a historic, $369 billion investment in the modernization of the American energy system.”
Among other things, the IRA contains a tax credit for electric vehicles whose final assembly takes place in North America, which could represent a big challenge to European carmakers in the years ahead.
Hyperbole Of The Day -- December 12, 2022
All the excitement over fusion energy. We won't see it in my investing lifetime, and I doubt Sophia will ever see it. But yet it will be the story of the day. Jennifer Granholm will be front and center today making it sound like our energy "problem" is solved.
From December 17, 2020, only two years ago:
- Toyota CEO: "Electric vehicles are overhyped." WSJ. Elon Musk himself said as recently as yesterday it's going to take alot more energy once we move to EVs. The good news: plenty of cars. The bad news: most Americans won't be able to afford them
A bigger story: the Southern Lights [Diluent] Pipeline: link here.
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China's Pivot On Covid-19
I'm surprised Peter Zeihan did not pick up on this. Very insightful.
It's hard to believe, but yes, China has a huge population problem, but not the one we all thought.
The Road To New England; Price Of Natural Gas Surges Overnight - Up 10% -- December 12, 2022
Monday morning; demand at upper end.
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Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 43.
WTI: $70.67.
Natural gas: $6.857.
Tuesday, December 13, 2022: 30 or the month, 139 for the quarter, 683 for the year.
38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4,
38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH,
38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H
36898, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H,
Monday, December 12, 2022: 26 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 679 for the year.
38898, conf, CLR, Bonney 8-3H,
38411, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5HU,
35528, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U,
Sunday, December 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 676 for the year.
38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5,
Saturday, December 10, 2022: 22 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 675 for the year.
38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1,
RBN Energy: are Canadian E&Ps struggling to meet the rising need for oil sands diluent? Archived.
Shipping Alberta’s fast-rising bitumen production to market through pipelines or on insulated rail cars depends on sufficient supplies of diluent, a variety of light hydrocarbons that, when blended with molasses-like bitumen, reduce the viscosity of the resulting mix. The problem is, in-region production of diluent — an economically favorable alternative to pipeline imports from the U.S. — has been growing more slowly than it was a few years ago, and increased demand for imported condensate could result in those pipelines being maxed out. In today’s RBN blog, we delve into what may be behind the slowing pace of Western Canadian diluent production and what the implications might be.
We have blogged many times about Alberta’s fast-rising production of oil sands bitumen, the blending ratios needed for “dilbit” —the diluent-bitumen blend used in pipelines — and for “railbit” — the blend used in insulated rail cars.
Before we go any further, we have to cover a few definitions. First, as alluded to earlier, diluent is any form of light liquid hydrocarbon that can be mixed with bitumen that reduce its viscosity and allow it to be transported by pipeline or in insulated rail cars. Diluent can take a number of forms such as a light crude oil, butane, or condensate. It’s that last word — condensate — that require some exact definitions since the U.S. and Canadian energy industry throw around the word a bit too loosely sometimes.
The Southern Lights [Diluent] Pipeline: link here.
