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Saturday, December 10, 2022

Vignettes On A Stormy Saturday Night -- December 10, 2022

Note: this will be posted and left up for an hour or so before it's taken down and placed in draft. I want Bakken posts to lead the blog overnight. 

Thomas Mallon.

Wiki entry.

If stranded on a desert island I would want to take Mallon's books. 

All of them. 

I was hooked when I learned he was the ghostwriter of former Vice President Dan Quayle's memoir, Standing Firm

He and I are exact contemporaries; he was born on November 2, 1951. I was born just twopointfive months or ten weeks before he was born.

Thomas Mallon has a seven-page "contribution" in the latest issue of The New Yorker. The contribution is an extract of his journals that he had begun writing in the early seventies. The extracts date from 1985 to 1988.

The Library of Congress acquired a hundred and forty-six volumes of his diaries, which, as noted, he had been keeping since the early nineteen-seventies. Before he handed over his notebooks in which he had chronicled his life, he scanned and downloaded the pages onto a thumb drive. I can only imagine how long that took.

Like Thomas Mallon I've keep journals throughout my life. I doubt the US Library of Congress would be interested.

Nineteeneightyfive was a huge year for me. We were stationed in Germany at the time; I was the chief of hospital services of the 36th Tactical Fighter Wing hospital serving the premier USAF fighter base in Europe. [Wow, we had a great group of physicians, surgeons, nurses, commanders. Probably second to none. Great memories, but I digress.]

I no longer remember the circumstances, but I took it upon myself to organize and host a USAF European medical conference. Long story, short: it was an incredible success. Somehow I got a top US Army infectious disease researcher to be the keynote speaker. He was doing his research at Walter Reed and flew over to Germany to update military personnel on what they knew up to that point. I have no recollection how I orchestrated that, but looking back, it was a big, big deal. 

The US Army physician brought to us the latest on research of that strange disease that affected the 4-H club: homosexuals, Haitians, hemophiliacs and heroin users. 

I had not really thought about it until now, but the parallels between that disease in the early 1980s and the global pandemic in the early years of the third decade of the 21st century are uncanny. 

******************************
Alexa

Tonight I asked Alexa to play "Taxi" by Harry Chapin. When the song was over, it was quiet. I waited a minute and then Alexa spoke up. She asked if I wanted to listen to any more music. I said, "yes," assuming she would ask what I might like to hear. Another moment of quiet. Alexa spoke again, "what do you want to hear?"

I had no idea. I was completely out of ideas. I didn't want to listen to anything on any of my playlists, real or imaginary; past, present or future.

She asked again what I wanted to hear.

I managed a barely audible "music." It is amazing how good Alexa's hearing is. She hears everything. She may mis-hear some things I say, but she hears everything. 

She replied: "Here's something you might like." [Perhaps her most over-used suggestion.]

I was floored. Non-stop music of some of the best classic rock and roll ever. I "knew" most of the songs but with a few minor exceptions, "none" of them were on any of my playlists.

We've had Alexa now for several years; we've never turned her off. As noted, she hears everything. She obviously knows me very, very well and came up with a playlist better than any I could have done myself. Amazing. And not a bit frightening. 

Alexa and I have a good relationship.

***********************
Elf On A Shelf

Sophia has an elf on a shelf at her house, and we have an elf on a shelf in our apartment. We have a really, really unique German, wooden, music-box, advent calendar, and every year the advent calendar is reserved for Sophia, age eight this year. Generally there is a piece of chocolate in the advent calendar for Sophia but this year we've started putting a more consequential gift out for her (in addition to the chocolate). 

We move the elf every night and place the gift for Sophia under the watchful eyes of the elf. Sophia has learned to look for the elf when she comes home from school, knowing there will be a gift for her within a few inches of the elf.

Sophia knows that our elf is not the "real thing." She knows it's a fake elf I got from Walmart and she suspects it is I who moves the elf every night.

On the other hand, the elf at her house is the "real deal." She knows that elf is real and that the elf in her house moves on her own. That elf has "real magic" according to Sophia, unlike the fake Walmart elf in our apartment.

My wife asked Sophia why she thinks our elf is a fake.

Sophia says because the price tag is still on that elf.

Winter Storm -- December 10, 2022

Updates

December 10, 2022: California getting walloped by global warming. From KESQ:


 
Now, from ZeroHedge: historic winter storm.


We'll know more Monday. Won't we?

Original Post 

From yesterday.

From SeekingAlpha:


Natural gas jumped almost 5% today.

EV Watch -- December 10, 2022

Investors.

EVs: not for me

This past week.

November sales. Link here.

Lucid.

  • LCID: down 14% in past five days.
  • customers canceling orders; Lucid aggressively fighting cancellations; 
  • Elon Musk: Tesla-rival Lucid might be about to die
  • others: cash on hand to survive another year; 
  • unexpected cash infusion from Saudis could change everything;

Rivian.

  • RIVN: down 12% in past five days.
  • Rivian, Warner Bros Discovery to bee added to NASDAQ 100 
  • company says relationship with Amazon solid

Lordstown.

  • RIDE down 19% in past five days.
  • one week ago, brought Endurance EV pickup to market

Arrival.

  • zombie company
  • moving company / operations to US for tax credits, etc.
  • recently blogged; no news

GM BrightDrop:

  • as others fail, BrightDrop charges toward $1 billion in revenue;
  • December 8, 2022: last-mile delivery startup has a permanent home in Ingersoll, Ontario
    • last-mile: no more than 200 miles / 24-hour cycle
  • collectively, more than 30 commeercial customers havd reserved mor ethan 25,000 Ultium-powered BrightDrop vans
    • DHL Express Canada
    • Walmart
    • Verizon
    • Hertz


 

The buzz this week: battery prices.

  • gmauthority;
  • batteries running $131 to $138 / kWh
  • by region:
    • lowest in China at $127 / kWh;
    • US: 24% higher ($160)
    • Europe: 33% higher
  • will continue to rise through 2023
    • then start to fall again in 2024
  • ICE parity: $100 / kWh
    • some segments may already be on par with ICE-based counterparts
      • premium EVs
      • mini city cars for the Chinese market

Link here.

Slow-motion car crash:

Slawson Muskrat Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- December 10, 2022

Link here for the Slawson Muskrat Federal wells.

One of many:

  • 38046, conf-->loc/drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1530 FWL, NENW 28-151-92, t--; cum 232K 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022291780917836128111441663617911
BAKKEN9-2022282234822908866318186599612052
BAKKEN8-20222624321239141053019828353916159
BAKKEN7-20223129717296841378324290263321502
BAKKEN6-20222929165296051723023797220021451
BAKKEN5-20223030474300271841924705364120912
BAKKEN4-20221920288203221622316355328812972
BAKKEN3-20223040228403354168232461477027543
BAKKEN2-20221217285170831922713878013817
BAKKEN1-20221715005750570
BAKKEN12-20211330016011

FracFocus: link here. Fracked 10/27/21 - 10/8/21.

  • big frack: 14.8 million gallons water; 92.2% water by mass; 46 stages;

Gasoline

Updates

December 11, 2022: at least it's overvalued, right?

Original Post

Price of gasoline, inflation adjusted: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the average price of a gallon of gas for every year between 1978 and 2021, and my personal "milestones" --

  • 1978: $0.65 ($2.99 inflation-adjusted)
  • 1979: $0.88 ($3.70 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1980: $1.22 ($4.51 inflation-adjusted) -- first year all training and education complete; 0-3 in USAF;
  • 1981: $1.35 ($4.46 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1982: $1.28 ($3.90 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1983: $1.23 ($3.62 inflation-adjusted) -- USAF sends me overseas; Germany
  • 1984: $1.20 ($3.39 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1985: $1.20 ($3.27 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1986: $0.93 ($2.44 inflation-adjusted) -- USAF sends the family to England
  • 1987: $0.96 ($2.48 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1988: $0.96 ($2.39 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1989: $1.06 ($2.52 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1990: $1.22 ($2.75 inflation-adjusted) -- USAF sends the family back to Germany
  • 1991: $1.20 ($2.56 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1992: $1.19 ($2.48 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1993: $1.17 ($2.36 inflation-adjusted)
  • 1994: $1.17 ($2.30 inflation-adjusted) -- Turkey for two years
  • 1995: $1.21 ($2.31 inflation-adjusted)
  • 1996: $1.29 ($2.40 inflation-adjusted)  -- Senior officer school, Montgomery, AL
  • 1997: $1.29 ($2.33 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 1998: $1.12 ($1.99 inflation-adjusted) -- Langley AFB, VA
  • 1999: $1.22 ($2.13 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2000: $1.56 ($2.66 inflation-adjusted) -- San Antonio, TX -- seven years until retirement
  • 2001: $1.53 ($2.51 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2002: $1.44 ($2.34 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2003: $1.64 ($2.59 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2004: $1.92 ($2.98 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2005: $2.34 ($3.53 inflation-adjusted) 
  •  2006: $2.64 ($3.83 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2007: $2.85 ($4.05 inflation-adjusted)  -- retired; multiple cities for next several years;
  • 2008: $3.32 ($4.52 inflation-adjusted)  -- mostly San Antonio, TX; Los Angeles; and Boston;
  • 2009: $2.40 ($3.27 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2010: $2.84 ($3.77 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2011: $3.58 ($4.67 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2012: $3.70 ($4.69 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2013: $3.58 ($4.47 inflation-adjusted) -- Texas, full-time
  • 2014: $3.43 ($4.22 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2015: $2.51 ($3.09 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2016: $2.20 ($2.67 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2017: $2.47 ($2.92 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2018: $2.79 ($3.24 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2019: $2.70 ($3.08 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2020: $2.24 ($2.50 inflation-adjusted) 
  • 2021: $3.13 ($3.44 inflation-adjusted) -- still in paradise;

US average mpg, sedan (car); PEW link here; and EIA through 2010. MPG doubled between 1975 and 2010.

  • 1975: 14 mpg
  • 1995: 25 mpg
  • 2005: 25 mpg
  • 2010: 27 mpg

2022, mpg, selected

  • Lincoln Navigator: 20
  • Honda Civic: 42 mpg (highway)

Compare:

  • 1985, children; soccer mom, van; 14 mpg; $3.25-gasoline; 20,000 miles / year
  • 2022: no children; no chauffeuring duties; 30 mpg; $2.59 gasoline; $10,000 miles / year

I Didn't Even Know It Was Off-Line. Did You? December 10, 2022

Link here

From the blog, May 31, 2016:

RBN Energy: easing crude pipeline constraints to St James.

The reversal of Shell’s Zydeco Pipeline (formerly Ho-Ho) in 2013 was a big deal. It enabled eastbound flows of a wide range of crude streams from the Houston area to the storage and distribution hub at St. James, LA and from there to a dozen nearby refineries. Soon, though, Zydeco (named for the region’s Creole music) was running full and shippers were competing for space, spurring midstream companies to consider further enhancements. New pipeline capacity being developed is planned to come online later this year and in 2017, but—with ever-changing market dynamics—will it all be necessary? In today’s blog, “Take the Long Way Home—Easing Crude Pipeline Constraints to St. James,” Housley Carr begins a series on new pipeline capacity to St. James, and whether it will meet (or exceed) market needs.

Kraken’s Marcy Wells With Halo Effect -- December 10, 2022

Wells of interest.

List of wells with history of a "jump in production."

I quit updating these pages simply because it became overwhelming. But every once in a while, I will add another one. 

Here's a new one:

  • 21014, IA/472, Kraken, Marcy 1-24H, Oliver, t12/11; cum 194K 7/20; off line 9/20; remains off line 6/21; back on line one year later, 9/21; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223131243222594845123485531
BAKKEN9-20222216961594370229022264290
BAKKEN8-2022313401340161084591428094
BAKKEN7-20223131923218678443093853241
BAKKEN6-20223034213485712039343557167
BAKKEN5-20222224482670584128152378269
BAKKEN4-20221922151968451726912163301
BAKKEN3-20223132183007896840233134517
BAKKEN2-20221490191630721307842265
BAKKEN1-20223022452528746732552630192
BAKKEN12-20213118981783788826572107183
BAKKEN11-20213013151105724015781101117
BAKKEN10-202131809849773384946079
BAKKEN9-20211413803398145041
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20207672222870035
BAKKEN7-2020313572201383750220
BAKKEN6-2020303646781743820172
BAKKEN5-20203039702064170196
BAKKEN4-2020304404572187960451
BAKKEN3-2020293714472026710323
BAKKEN2-2020293764822906800304
BAKKEN1-2020314874604668810431
BAKKEN12-20193159947539810830635
BAKKEN11-2019284294973947760412

The reason?

  • 37288, 1,573, Kraken, Marcy 24-13 5H, middle Bakken, t7/21; cum 232K 10/22; first production, 7/21; 10 million lbs proppant; 60 stages; production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20223156745648132932579324933340
BAKKEN9-20223061656208135672576324933328
BAKKEN8-20223179627937158882670526312176
BAKKEN7-2022245232522795601607415719190
BAKKEN6-20223074267681130061960019150240
BAKKEN5-20222277727503151421541315090155
BAKKEN4-2022194512462590981261012264122
BAKKEN3-20223087928815171532498624300331
BAKKEN2-20222795299659162172444123816231
BAKKEN1-2022311423114075214813323932488304
BAKKEN12-2021311724817306241283367133001298
BAKKEN11-2021302238222567323184081640138318
BAKKEN10-2021292946029187414374319242664243
BAKKEN9-2021293867338626574495080649910680
BAKKEN8-20212933923339415845141045351325738
BAKKEN7-20211313407131472763816420132923076

From August 24, 2021 and here (entries updated):

  • 21014, A/IA/472, Kraken, Marcy 1-24H, Oliver, t12/11; cum 194K 7/20; remains off line 6/21; back on line 9/21; cum 224K 10/22;
  • 22579, 466, Kraken, Marcy 2-24H, Oliver, t8/12; cum 165K 6/21; offline for short period in summer, 2020; off line short period autumn, 2021; back on line; cum 181K 10/22;
  • 22580, A/IA/240, Kraken, Marcy 3-24H, Oliver, t8/12; cum 150K 9/20; off line 10/20; remains off line 6/21; back on line 7/21; halo effect, from 500 to 1500 bbls/month; cum 170K 10/22;

Apple, China -- December 10, 2022

From the blog, December 4, 2022:

If China relaxes Covid-19 restrictions, it will be interesting to see what the tipping point was. Tea leaves: 

  • Apple’s threat to leave China. If Apple leaves, “everyone else” leaves. That’s what Tim Cook told Xi.

From Gene Munster, the #1 Apple analyst, yesterday


 Tim Cook, no doubt, shadow-wrote the letter.

Drilled Back In 2009; Jump In Production -- December 10, 2022

The well:

  • 18104, 1,113, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1, Blue Buttes, t11/09; cum 501K 11/20; off line most of 4/19; remains off line 12/19; intermittent, small production 10/19; struggling? remains off line 1/20 -- now listed as IA; back on line as of 4/20; back on line 5/20; recent production here; cum 518K 6/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 9/21; back on line 11/21; jump in production;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022243107331811574233415182
BAKKEN9-2022223032306610574925484382
BAKKEN8-202231421245161412647964790
BAKKEN7-202231355635561507456645660
BAKKEN6-202230460844542125653565350
BAKKEN5-202228527649502184700270020
BAKKEN4-202222421345371490525852580
BAKKEN3-202228464945292250515751570
BAKKEN2-202228625765323019774177410
BAKKEN1-202226490749652218603460340
BAKKEN12-202129694271521310849084900
BAKKEN11-202120368830541237444944490
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-2021910079121489429420
BAKKEN7-2021386225321381380
BAKKEN6-20213024252470389376237620
BAKKEN5-20212923082373381324032400
BAKKEN4-20213027952743439383638360
BAKKEN3-20213129123034480358135810
BAKKEN2-20212318021909219229622960

Drilled In 2009; Goes Over One Million Bbls; Still Flowing Without A Pump -- December 10, 2022

The well:

  • 17147, 2,101, XTO, HBU Boucher 41X-21, Hofflund, t4/09; F; cum 992K 10/21; jump in production; cum 1.030890 million bbls 19/22; 

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022317236699494810851105510
BAKKEN9-20221132162933523408629271092
BAKKEN8-20222029042890125836873410168
BAKKEN7-2022215661099071961554
BAKKEN6-202215276120131535063091321
BAKKEN5-202222360437325745784097361
BAKKEN4-202215177222176822521863338
BAKKEN3-20222644064422225559538991470
BAKKEN2-202213214717783519641718147
BAKKEN1-20223032763793107416027111188

Drilled In 2008; Just Crossed Over One Million Bbls; Still Flowing Without A Pump; Just Taken Off Line -- December 10, 2022

The well:

  • 17158, 4,184, Whiting, Richardson Federal 11-9H, Sanish, t10/08; F; cum 995K 10/21; see this post; cum 1.000125 million bbls 6/22; just came off line 7/22; many wells in this area have recently come off line; no explanation.

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-202211640000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-202254442463523430
BAKKEN6-20223052253691450444440
BAKKEN5-202231695724123466045980
BAKKEN4-20222148543769337322971037
BAKKEN3-202231623643157349734350
BAKKEN2-2022285625702343087301022