Is CLR Using New Well-Naming Format? Five New Permits -- December 5, 2022

CLR: has changed names of two wells.

• 36164, loc, CLR, Fuller 9ND, Dunn County; was Fuller 9-2H1;
• 36163, loc, CLR, Fuller 10ND, Dunn County; was Fuller 10-2H

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $77.41 (on the back of strong economic data; investors fear the Fed will remain hawkish)

Natural gas: $5.630

Five new permits, #39458 - #39462, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (4); Enerplus;
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); South Fork (Dunn County))
• Comments:
• Enerplus has a permit for a Checkered well, lot 4 section 4-148N-93W; 
• to be sited 719 FNL and 644 FWL;
• CLR has permits for two Arthur wells and two Hegler wells; SWSW 12-146-97; 
• to be sited 500 FSL and between 932 FWL and 1112 FWL
• the Arthur / Hegler wells are tracked here.

BiMaga: The Inflation Reduction Act: CLIMATE, HEALTH, TAX REFORM-- Re-Visited -- December 5, 2022

BiMAGA

There were two huge bills signed by President Biden so far this past year:

• the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed August 16, 2022
• the CHIPS and Science Act, signed August 9, 2022

Updates

December 6, 2022: 

Link here.

President Biden is getting into the holiday spirit by slapping a bow and some American Flag wrapping paper on a sweet little surprise for Europe...The Inflation Reduction Act.

Inside they'll find a wide array of pro-American manufacturing programs that are less than favorable for the Europeans. Europe has enjoyed 75 years of safe and lucrative trade thanks to the guns and butter deal we know as globalization, but the Americans have outgrown that model.

They are ready to bring some of their manufacturing home, and not in a small quantity...we're talking 12 zeros here.

This comes at a time when Biden needs some new footing with the organized labor faction and nothing speaks louder than money. Europe isn't happy about the American's leveling out the playing field and WTO action has been threatened, but at the end of the day, the Biden administration is going to get its way.

Original Post

There were two huge bills signed by President Biden so far this past year:

• the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed August 16, 2022
• the CHIPS and Science Act, signed August 9, 2022

These were the most protectionist, "make-America-great-again" acts that even a GOP president would have supported. Yes, there were things in both bills that conservatives may not have wanted but that's what compromise is all about. And maybe I'm wrong. That's fine.

But both are already having a huge impact on the global and the US economy. I was reminded of that when reading the UK EV Arrival story today (see below).

The first act, the IRA, addressed the climate (global warming); health (expanded Obamacare); and tax reform (the wealthy to "pay their fair share"). 

This act will have a huge effect on global automobile and truck manufacturing, and it absolutely favors the US (maybe the US and Mexico) over Europe and Asia.

The second act seeks to bolster the US semiconductor supply chain and promote research and development of advanced technologies in the United States. It essentially cuts off China at the knees with regard to semiconductor technology.

***************************************
The IRA: The Inflation Reduction Act

Re-posting from August 15, 2022: EVs -- The Biden Bill -- SIGNED August 16, 2022

The Biden Bill, EVs-2022, is an "investors' bill. The bulk of the money goes to US auto manufacturers. No money to manufacturers outside North America; and most incentives target manufacturers, not consumers. 

EVs: link here. Scorecard.

• cash burn
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging.  

The Biden Bill -- the Inflation Reduction Act (climate, health, and tax)

MSN-Reuters, August 15, 2022: the article is a bit confusing. Data points:

• the bill will eliminate EV tax credits for most models currently getting up to $7,500 effective (sic)
• restructures the existing $7,500 new EV tax credit
• creates a new $4,000 rebate for used EVs
• but the bulk goes to auto manufacturers: loan programs; tax credit and grant programs

New law:

• 70% of 72 US electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell EVs that currently qualify, ineligible
• none would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect

CBO estimate:

• 11,000 new EVs will receive tax credits in 2023 assuming $7,500 per vehicle

Those that won't qualify:

• Audi of America
• only its plug-in hybrid will retain existing federal credit through the end of 2022
• Kia
• Porsche
• any vehicles assembled outside of North America
• huge hit for EU, South Korea, and many others

200,000 vehicle cap:

• GM
• Tesla

New credits available for those who exceed 200,000-cap

• stricter sourcing and income rules

Comment: this looks exactly like a bill that Trump would have signed:

• bill would eliminate tax credits for the "wealthy"
• bill would favor middle income
• money targets the manufacturers and the workers in those industries, not the buyers
• vehicles need to be assembled in North America (including Canada and Mexico)
• for investors: another open-book test
• the reason 70% of 72 US electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell EVs that currently qualify would no longer qualify: assemby must be in US. I'm sure Trump would have wanted the same thing 
• for companies like Apple, this is huge -- they now have the "new" rules

********************************
Update

From earlier today:

The UK-based Arrival: this is a UK de-industrialization story, link here --

• more and more, looks like a zombie company
• moving from UK to US in last-ditch effort "to squeeze the most out of its remaining capital"
• cash on hand: $330 million
• Charlotte, NC
• will cut production from 400 vehicles to 20 and postponed development of its battery-electric buses to focus on vans

Arrival, which went from stealthy electric vehicle startup to a publicly traded company via a SPAC merger, said it will now put the bulk of its remaining resources toward producing a “family of van products” for the U.S. market. It will also put funds toward related technologies such as core components, composite materials, mobile robotics and what it describes as software-defined factories.

But look at this:

The major factors in the company’s decision to shift focus to developing its U.S. business included the tax credit recently announced as part of the Inflation Reduction Act — expected to offer between $7,500 and $40,000 for commercial vehicles, the large addressable market size, and substantially better margins.

From another source:

EV startup Arrival first caught investors' attention with its microfactory approach and a wide variety of prototypes, from buses to passenger EVs.

The company had a lot on its plate coming into 2022, and recently chose to prioritize its electric Van model for production after achieving Bus and Van certification in the EU in the first half of the year.

Despite starting Van pre-production in the UK just a month ago, Arrival is suddenly shifting its manufacturing plans to the US as a part of restructuring its entire business.

That's right: Arrival is headed stateside, citing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is set to offer between $7500 and $40,000 in tax credits for commercial vehicles as one of the major factors in its decision.

New Well Naming System Being Used By CLR? Five New Permits -- December 5, 2022

US economy: one word -- incredible. Despite the aggressive efforts by the Fed to slow inflation, the economy remains resilient.

This is exactly what Europe saw coming and what Europe saw coming over twenty years ago -- an energy-independent America.

• but it's more than that:
• not only is America energy dependent, it is now the #1 supplier of natural gas and crude oil to other countries; this needs to be fleshed out
• to what degree the Russian-Ukraine war is having on the global economy, the war is "background" noise and the real story is America's energy story; perhaps more on this later:
• I refer you to one of Peeter Zeihan's recent books

US economy: link here. 

*************************
Back to the Bakken

CLR: has changed names of two wells.

• 36164, loc, CLR, Fuller 9ND, Dunn County; was Fuller 9-2H1;
• 36163, loc, CLR, Fuller 10ND, Dunn County; was Fuller 10-2H

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $77.41 (on the back of strong economic data; investors fear the Fed will remain hawkish)

Natural gas: $5.630

Five new permits, #39458 - #39462, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (4); Enerplus;
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); South Fork (Dunn County))
• Comments:
• Enerplus has a permit for a Checkered well, lot 4 section 4-148N-93W; 
• to be sited 719 FNL and 644 FWL;
• CLR has permits for two Arthur wells and two Hegler wells; SWSW 12-146-97; 
• to be sited 500 FSL and between 932 FWL and 1112 FWL
• the Arthur / Hegler wells are tracked here.
  

Streaming Wars -- December 5, 2022

Investors. 

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Link here. 

At an estimated 25 million (March, 2022)  Apple TV+ paid subscribers, Apple has about the same number as ESPN+. 

For music streaming, link here.

Global Population -- Random Look -- December 5, 2022

On the way to answering another question, I again came across these charts posted a few weeks ago. A 30-second sound bite, forecast:

• by the end of next year, India's population will surpass that of China's today [later: occurred April, 2023];
• puts into perspective India's thirst for Mideast oil (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, in that order) and Russia's.
  
• but India's rate of growth will slow, so that by the end of the century, India's population will be well less than China's today, but will still exceed China's
• by the end of the century, China will cut is population in half from that of today, from 1.4 billion to 700 million (the US population runs about 350 million) 
• one-child policy was bad enough, but was aggravated by an overwhelming preponderance of male infants
  
• by the end of the century, China will drop from #1 to #3 in population: India will remain #1 (but its population will also drop, from 1.4 billion to 1.1 billion)
• by the end off the century, Nigeria will jump to second place, behind India, with a population of 800 million, up from around 200 million today
  

Original Post 

First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.

By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. 

Graphic below.

Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China.

Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:

Top seven countries in population in 2100:

Just Call Me "Max" -- December 5, 2022

Investors.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Max, link here.

December 5, 2022, Sanctions -- Tracked Here

January 11, 2023: current estimates, EU sanctions could cost Russia $300 million / day. Charles Kennedy.

January 2, 2023: India, Russia and sanctions. 

December 23, 2022: Russian exports in November, 2022, fall to lowest level since January, 2021.

December 22, 2022: estimates of the Russian economy.

• NPR, BBC, others reporting that the sanctions aren't working;

December 15, 2022: China update. China waiting before taking more Russian crude oil.

December 14, 2022: update with baseline.

December 6, 2022: December 5th Sanctions (D5S) -- one day later:

December 6, 2022: US exports to Europe, just before sanctions went into effect, link here -- 

• last week, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit 11.8 million barrels per day, marking an all-time high.
• the record came just days before the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil by sea came into effect.
• seaborne exports of U.S. crude oil exceeded 7.1 million bpd, which also marked an all-time high.
  

December 5, 2022:

• baseline numbers before the sanctions went into effect:

CNBC: August 20, 2022.

From the linked article, again, before the December 5th sanctions:

Imports of Russian oil, including supplies pumped via the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline and seaborne shipments from Russia’s European and Far Eastern ports, totaled 7.15 million tonnes, up 7.6% from a year ago.

Still, Russian supplies in July, equivalent to about 1.68 million barrels per day (bpd), were below May’s record of close to 2 million bpd.

China is Russia’s largest oil buyer. Imports from second-ranking Saudi Arabia rebounded last month from June, which was the lowest in more than three years, to 6.56 million tonnes, or 1.54 million bpd, but still slightly below year-ago level.

How much oil does the EU still import from Russia, The Indian Express, September 21, 2022, before the December 5th sanctions:

Under the looming ban, the EU will need to replace an additional 1.4 million barrels of Russian crude.

What are the alternatives available?

Russian crude oil imports into the European Union and United Kingdom fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.6 million bpd in January, but the EU was still the biggest market for Russian crude.

The UK has already stopped importing Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and the EU will ban imports from December to strip the Kremlin of revenue to fund the war.

Imports from the United States have replaced about half the 800,000 barrels of lost Russian imports, with Norway providing around a third.

For India, link here. 

Russia has become India's top oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Russia, which made up for just 0.2% of all oil imported by India in the year to March 31, 2022, supplied 9,35,556 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to India in October — the highest ever.

It now makes up for 22% of India's total crude imports, ahead of Iraq's 20.5% and Saudi Arabia's 16%.

India imported just 36,255 barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in December 2021 as compared to 1.05 million bpd from Iraq and 9,52,625 bpd from Saudi Arabia

There were no imports from Russia in the following two months but they resumed in March, soon after the Ukraine war broke out in late February.

India imported 68,600 bpd of Russian oil in March while it increased to 2,66,617 bpd in the following month and peaked to 9,42,694 bpd in June. But in June, Iraq was India's top supplier with 1.04 million bpd of oil. Russia in that month became India's second biggest supplier.

The Indian government has been vehemently defending its trade with Russia, saying it has to source oil from where it is cheapest.

"In FY22 [April 2021 to March 2022], the purchases of Russian oil was 0.2% [of all oil imported by India]. We still buy only a quarter of what Europe buys in one afternoon," Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told CNN in Abu Dhabi last week. "We owe a moral duty to our consumers. We have a 1.34 billion population and we have to ensure that they are supplied with energy...whether it's petrol, diesel." What caught my eye(s) with regard to India:

We (the Indian) still buy only a quarter of what Europe buys in one afternoon.

This is a battle within OPEC+: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia. US unaffected.

Russia will be selling their oil at a heavy discount.

So, those are the baseline numbers. With the December 5, 2022, sanctions, note:

• the sanctions affect seaborne crude oil deliveries, not pipeline crude oil;
• in addition to the "global" December 5th sanctions, the EU imposed a $60/bbl cap on Russian crude oil.
• based on "talk," the $60-cap may be a bigger problem for Russia than the December 5th sanctions (tag: D5S).
  

There are two "arenas":

• political arena: I pay little attention to this arena:
• investors arena: I pay a lot of attention to this arena.

Political:

• do I care that there will be a lot of cheating by both sides, by both Russia and the EU? No.
• do I care that the "devil" is in the details? No.
• am I surprised that when US gasoline prices were spiking President Biden did not ban US crude oil exports? Yes.
• am I surprised that President Biden signed off on a huge off-shore export terminal south of Texas? Yes.
  

Investing:

• do I pay attention to the fact that US oil companies are replacing about half of the Russian oil the EU is not buying? Yes.
• am I surprised that when US gasoline prices were spiking President Biden did not ban US crude oil exports? Yes.
• am I surprised that President Biden signed off on a huge off-shore export terminal south of Texas? Yes.
• will some US oil companies do better than others in this environment? Yes.
  

With regard to cheating:

• some folks are watching Russia's tanker shipments and how Russia will get around the sanctions:
• some folks correctly note that India and China will make crude oil buying decisions based on best price;

Comments:

• folks forget that both India and China have finite on-shore oil storage facilities
• yes, both countries can store oil off-shore in those same tankers
• as "big" as the economies of India and China are, they can only grow so fast;
• China's GDP is actually falling
• China: Covid-19; Biden's IRA essentially cuts off China at the knees; when Apple leaves, "everyone" else also leaves;

The pie:

• global crude oil consumption will increase only marginally over the next few years;
• the size of the pie stays relatively the same size
  
• the portions of the pie? LOL.
• Russia loses most of Europe; all of the UK;  Russia's slice of the price gets significantly smaller;
• US, right now, is replacing one-half of what the EU is no longer getting from Russia (and this is before the December 5th sanctions
• the US slice of of the pie gets significantly bigger
• Saudi Arabia: could be the biggest loser
• Saudi Arabia: not set up logistically to supply EU
• Saudi Arabia: focused on China; Xi flying into Riyadh today (December 5, 2022) -- fact check;
• Saudi Arabia: can't afford to cede China to Russia
• tea leaves: expect to see a civil war within OPEC+ as Saudi takes on Russia (China); Iraq takes on Russia (India)
  
• even before the sanctions, Saudi's foreign exchange reserves dropped month-over-month
• Saudi's policy: "Saudi first"
• US policy: no more drilling
• no more drilling?
• less CAPEX
• short term: huge margins for the US oil companies;
• long term: US oil companies will do just fine

One last comment:

• this is crude oil;
• we haven't even discussed natural gas which might be an even bigger story than crude oil for the US

Okay, one last comment:

• will some US oil companies do better than others in this environment? Yes.
• the big five are better positioned to sell their oil to the EU than smaller US independents
• Canada has no export terminals; maybe TransMountain is the exception; not yet on-line

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

WTI:

• December 2, 2022: about $78
• December 5, 2022: $81.06; hit $82 in early morning trading before dropping back
• December 5, 2022, 10:14 a.m. CT: WTI drops back to $79.88.
  

Note: while writing the above, it was reported that Russia will sell crude oil and oil products to Pakistan at a discount. Link to Charles Kennedy.

• the political story: Pakistan thumbs its nose at the EU and the US
• the financial story: from the linked article -

Many large customers in Asia haven’t joined the price cap mechanism, but China and India, for example – Russia’s top crude oil buyers now – are demanding steep discounts for the Russian grades.

Is this a win-win-win for everyone?

So, at least we have some baseline numbers. I will come back to this periodically with a more in-depth look eight months from now -- during the height of the US driving season.

ASML

Themes.

Chips: link here. Chips, semiconductor: link here.

ASML lithography, link here. 

• Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography processes carve electric circuits into semiconductor wafers with processes of > 7 nm. 
• Newer Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology achieves even smaller processes of 2 nm and beyond. This advance, which allows more electric circuits to be squeezed onto a chip, is vital to sustaining Moore’s Law. 
• Next-generation High Numerical Aperture (High-NA EUV) lithography systems are currently in development. They are anticipated to enable even higher-resolution patterning, which should validate Moore’s Law in the foreseeable future.

Updates

July 19, 2023: major update here.

July 19, 2023: Barron's, link here:

July 19, 2023: superb second quarter.

• profit jumps;
• handily beats on both upper and lower lines;
• ups guidance

Original Post

ASML, CNBC, December 4, 2022: 

From the linked article:

ASML, headquartered in the town of Veldhoven, does not make chips.

Instead, it makes and sells $200 million extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to semiconductor manufacturers like Taiwan’s TSMC.

These machines are required to make the most advanced chips in the world, and ASML has a de-facto monopoly on them, because it’s the only company in the world to make them. This makes ASML one of the most important chip companies in the world.

And more:

ASML has not been able to ship an EUV machine to China since 2019 due to various Dutch export restrictions, according to a company spokesperson.

But they said that ASML expects “the direct impact of the new export control measures on ASML’s overall 2023 shipment plan to be limited.”

There are currently no EUV systems in China. The U.S. is worried that if ASML ships the machines to China, chipmakers in the country could begin to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors in the world, which have extensive military and advanced artificial intelligence applications.

Peter Zeihan weighs in.

Investors -- December 5, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

Ten Robinhood stocks: too cheap to ignore, link here, November 28, 2022:

• ChargePoint Holdings
• Lucid
• Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
• MFA Financial
• Plug Power
• Energy Transfer L.P.
• DraftKings
• Palantir Technologies
• Ford
• GM

Eight dividend hikes to watch for this week, link here, and here (same story):

• PFE: historically their dividend increases have been very little
  
• UNP: it is true that UNP usually announces a dividend increase at this time, but they raised their divided twice in the past year; it would be interesting to see UNP raise their dividend yet again

Amazon:

• launches supply-chain software service, The WSJ, November 29, 2022.

Amazon. com Inc. is adding a supply-chain management service to its web services business, jumping into an increasingly competitive technology field as companies try to get tighter control of the flow of goods from factories to consumers. 

Amazon’s launch of its cloud application, AWS Supply Chain, adds Amazon to a growing list of software suppliers, such as Manhattan Associates and Blue Yonder, that help merchants juggle increasingly complex cargo flows and inventory demands. Microsoft Corp. launched its own supply-chain management software platform earlier this month.

• Amazon's quest for the "holy grail" of robotics, The WSJ, December 3, 2022.

For decades, one of the hardest problems for robot developers to crack has been something seemingly mundane: how to replicate the human hand’s ability to pick up stuff.

Amazon.com has just come a lot closer to achieving this elusive goal, with a leap in its automation prowess that promises far-reaching effects for its huge workforce and its future growth ambitions.

The tech giant last month unveiled a collection of new robots, one of which is suited to replacing humans in the most common job at Amazon – picking up items and placing them elsewhere. The linchpin of this new kind of automation is a robot arm – appropriately named Sparrow after the tenacious, pervasive bird – that combines advanced artificial intelligence, a variety of grippers, and the speed and precision that is now standard in off-the-shelf industrial robotic arms.

The announcement was easy to miss, coming as it did amid a run of news that, in part, illustrated some of the challenges Amazon is trying to tackle with its automation effort. The company began layoffs of corporate employees in mid-November, part of a sweeping cost-cutting effort to deal with the aftereffects of its rapid expansion during the pandemic.

• ‘The Bezos Blueprint’ Review: Is Brevity the Soul of Success? The WSJ. November 30, 2022, The Bezos Blueprint, Communication Secrets of the World's Greatest Salesman, Carmine Gallo, November 15, 2022.
  

Mr. Gallo maintains that Mr. Bezos’s annual shareholder letters offer particular insight.

What’s more, until now, “no book has analyzed the forty-eight thousand words Bezos wrote over twenty-four years of shareholder letters.”

Mr. Gallo delves into those words—48,062 of them, to be exact. He delves into those 2,481 sentences, which average 18.8 words each. He measures their readability using the Flesch-Kincaid scale, created in the 1940s, to show that the letters were written at a level an 11th-grader would understand. Eventually, Mr. Bezos whittled his writing down to even shorter sentences—16 words, instead of 18.8, with a readability score fit for an eighth-grader.

EVs Not For Me -- EV Update -- December 5, 2022

Investors.

EVs: link here. Scorecard. 

Previously posted:

December 4, 2022: SUV of the year. An EV.

August 29, 2022: Honda, LG Energy to build first US EV battery factory somewhere in Ohio.

August 24, 2022: the UK-based Arrival. 

August 15, 2022: this is an investor's bill -- the Biden Bill -- EVs, 2022 Biden Bill;

August 11, 2022: Rivian: a "zombie" company. Link here.

July 22, 2022: Amazon begins rollout of thousands of Rivian EVs. Also Stellantis Ram. 

Let's update:

Where in Ohio: Honda and LG Energy -- link here -- and, here --

• Fayette County, Ohio
• midway between Cincinnati and Columbus
• $4.4 billion
• 2,200 jobs: Turner Construction, Yates Construction, Kokosinig Industrial

The UK-based Arrival: this is a UK de-industrialization story, link here --

• more and more, looks like a zombie company
• moving from UK to US in last-ditch effort "to squeeze the most out of its remaining capital
• cash on hand: $330 million
• Charlotte, NC
• will cut production from 400 vehicles to 20 and postponed development of its battery-electric busees to focus on vans

Arrival, which went from stealthy electric vehicle startup to a publicly traded company via a SPAC merger, said it will now put the bulk of its remaining resources toward producing a “family of van products” for the U.S. market. It will also put funds toward related technologies such as core components, composite materials, mobile robotics and what it describes as software-defined factories.

But look at this:

The major factors in the company’s decision to shift focus to developing its U.S. business included the tax credit recently announced as part of the Inflation Reduction Act — expected to offer between $7,500 and $40,000 for commercial vehicles, the large addressable market size, and substantially better margins.

Rivian: not much news; this from four weeks ago --

• electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive on Wednesday reaffirmed its 25,000-vehicle production target for 2022.
• it said it plans to spend less to do it as the company reported third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s estimate.
• Rivian said it now has “over 114,000” preorders for its R1-series trucks and SUVs.

New:

GM, LG to expand Tennessee EV battery plant -- link here:

• General Motors and LG Energy Solution will spend an additional $275 million in their joint venture battery plant in Tennessee to increase production by more than 40%.
• the new investment is in addition to the $2.3 billion announced in April 2021 to build the 2.8 million-square-foot facility.
• joint venture: Ultium cells LLC
• Ultium Cells Spring Hill
• expected to increase capacity from 35 gigawatt-hours to 50 gigawatt-hours 

Ford: 

• November sales: most Asian brands surge; Ford has significant decline in sales 
• CNBC video here (I did not watch) 

• Scary: results were compared to a year ago and still plummeted 7.9%; that should be really concerning
  

• Hyundai's news to go all-electric
• tea leaves suggest Asia automakers widening the lead over US manufacturers
• EVs, not for me. 

The Biden Bill? That gets a stand-alone post.

WTI - Natural Gas Spread Widens; December 5th Sanctions -- December 5, 2022

Busy, busy day: after the Bakken, most of the blogging will be spent on investing. A lot of EVs, chips, batteries.

Most important today: "Get Up" and "First Take" -- TV-talk sports, after the 54 - 17 Dallas win over the Colts. 

But that will all have to wait until 8:00 a.m. CT or thereabouts -- I meet Sophia at the bus stop and then a short bike ride before blogging.

Most curious, pre-market:

• DVN: up 1.15%
• CVX: up 0.65%
• COP: up 1.04%
• MNRL: --
• SRE: --
• ENB: --
• EPD: up slightly
• MPC: --
  
• AAPL: oscillating around the flat line
  
• TSM: up 0.87%
  
• PFE: down slightly
• Eli Lilly: --
  

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $82.09.

Natural gas: $5.840.

Active rigs: 43.

Tuesday, December 6, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
None.

Monday, December 5, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3,
38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H,
37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H,
29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH,

Sunday, December 4, 2022: 10 for the month, 119 for the quarter, 663 for the year.
38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1,
37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H,
29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH,

Saturday, December 3, 2022: 7 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 660 for the year.
38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H,
29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,

RBN Energy: how refiners would be impacted by IPA's proposed rule on HF alkylation. 

Alkylate is an important and valuable part of the U.S. gasoline pool, prized for its high octane, low volatility and low sulfur content. There are two primary catalysts that refiners can opt to use in the production of alkylate: hydrofluoric acid, or HF, and sulfuric acid, or H₂SO_4.  Each is quite popular, with HF and sulfuric acid technologies each representing about half of domestic alkylation capacity — and with those shares varying significantly on a regional basis.

While refiners have been safely operating both types of “alky” units for many decades, HF alkylation for some time has been in the crosshairs of the Environmental Protection Agency, which recently proposed that refiners be required to undertake extensive evaluations of potentially safer alternative technologies. It’s hard to know for sure, but if EPA’s proposed rule is made final it could ultimately force many refineries to make very costly changes — into the hundreds of million dollars per unit — or maybe even shut down entirely. In today’s RBN blog, we look at alkylate, how it’s made, and the potentially profound effects of the impending regulation.