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Sunday, December 4, 2022

Another Day In Paradise — December 4, 2022

 A high of 77 degrees Fahrenheit tomorrow. Whoo-hoo!

Top Story This Past Week — December 4, 2022

So many huge stories over at “Focus on Fracking.”

If I had to pick the top story, this one would be in play:

Biden Admin Quietly Greenlights Plan To Build Huge Gulf Oil Terminal 

The Biden administration has quietly approved plans to build a new crude oil terminal in the Gulf of Mexico off Texas, seemingly in contradiction to the president’s climate agenda. 

The Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration approved the application (pdf) for Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal, one of four proposed offshore oil export terminals, on Monday. 

According to the application, the port will be located offshore of Freeport, Texas. It will have 4.8 million barrels of storage capacity and add 2 million barrels per day to the U.S. oil export capacity.In its 94-page decision (pdf), the Maritime Administration said that it had approved the application because the construction and operation of the port is “in the national interest and consistent with other policy goals and objectives.”“The construction and operation of the Port is in the national interest because the Project will benefit employment, economic growth, and U.S. energy infrastructure resilience and security,” the administration wrote. “The Port will provide a reliable source of crude oil to U.S. allies in the event of market disruption and have a minimal impact on the availability and cost of crude oil in the U.S. domestic market.” 

The decision states that the project will expand on an existing Enterprise Crude Houston operated terminal located in Houston and will generate 62 permanent jobs over 30 years. Additionally, 1,400 temporary construction jobs will be created, with the majority of the workforce being hired from existing labor pools in Texas and Louisiana, according to the application.

Absolutely huge on so many levels. One would have expected this from a GOP president, not a DEM, especially Joe Biden. 

Oil: Ready To Break Out (On The Upside)? December 4, 2022

Scrolling through my twitter feed tonight, one certainly gets that feeling. But I’m always inappropriately bullish when it comes to oil.

“Focus on Fracking”: already posted.

“GasBuddy” suggests rising demand not yet noted by mainstream analysts. And gasoline prices keep dropping. 

If China relaxes Covid-19 restrictions, it will be interesting what the tipping point was. Tea leaves: 

  • Apple’s threat to leave China. If Apple leaves, “everyone else” leaves. That’s what Tim Cook told Xi.

If JPow gives investors a Christmas present in ten days, it will be interesting to ponder the tipping point. Tea leaves suggest:

  • plummeting housing market; and/or,
  • GDPNow dropping from4.3 to 2.8.

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/11/16/markets-see-a-smaller-fed-hike-coming-in-december/?sh=198b64f32aa3.

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Cowboys

Taking care of business. 40 - 19 midway through fourth quarter.

And looks like another TD coming.

Zeke Elliott.

47 - 19.

Zeke will be fined for jumping into the Salvation Army kettle.

And there’s still six minutes left.

Final: 54 - 19.

OBJ.

The 2023 SUV Of The Year Is An EV -- December 4, 2022

Investors.

EVs: link here. Scorecard

Old news, but I missed it: Hyundai. Link, December 29, 2021.

  • to close its ICE development division
  • also, has indefinitely suspended work on its Genesis hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

Hyundai and sister company Kia, target: to see 1.7 million EVs worldwide in 2026.

And, oh by the way, the SUV of the year and here: the Hyundai Ioniq 5. 2023.

Hyundai -- Georgia, USA -- posted May 22, 2022. Link here.

  • breaks ground on $5.5 billion EV plant, Ellabell, GA -- October 25, 2022;

Just five months after Hyundai announced the $5.5 billion manufacturing plant in Bryan County west of Savannah, vast areas of the site have already been cleared of trees.

The South Korean company plans to open the factory in 2025, with at least 8,100 employees producing up to 300,000 electric vehicles per year.

Georgia officials say it's the largest economic development project the state has ever seen.

U.S. LNG Is Booming, But Who Supplies The Gas? Part 2 -- Alex Kimani -- December 4, 2022

Look at the timeframe: "... over the next couple of years."

Part one here.

Archived

The op-ed begins;

In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG.
Pundits are asking if the United States can ramp up production to meet future demand.  It’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet future LNG demand.

Some data points.

The deals:

  • June, 2022: German utility EnBW; 20-year deal; US-based exporter Venture Global
  • June, 2022: China Gas Holdings; Energy Transfer
  • June, 2022: Chevron; Venture Global
  • June, 2022: Tellurian; Vitol
  • July, 2022: Thailand's PTT; Cheniere Energy
  • September, 2022: Australian giant Woodside Energy Group; US-supplied Commonwealth LNG

Overall,

  • offtakers have committed to more than ~31 MMtpa of U.S. LNG supply, with term lengths ranging from 15 to 25 years. But a lot more than that is likely to be demanded over the next couple of years.

RBN (archived) estimates that 

“…there’s another 100 MMtpa (14.3 Bcf/d) or so of proposed LNG export capacity with a medium-to-high chance of progressing in the next three years, including at least three projects totaling almost 19 MMtpa (2.5 Bcf/d) that we believe are highly likely to take FID within the next 12 months. That’s out of a universe of nearly 30 projects we track in the LNG Voyager Quarterly, representing over 280 MMtpa (38.3 Bcf/d) of potential export capacity, the bulk of it along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.”

Recently, according to RBN Energy:

RBN notes that the Appalachia was, by far, the biggest contributor to U.S. natural gas growth over the last decade. During the timeframe, Lower 48 dry gas production climbed nearly 30 Bcf from an average 70 Bcf/d in 2014 to 99.6 Bcf/d currently, during which Appalachian output more than doubled and drove 18.5 Bcf/d of that overall growth. The Permian came in a distant second, growing production by 11.2 Bcf/d while the Eagle Ford saw production decline by 1 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, the Haynesville was the third-fastest-growing region on an absolute volume basis, up from 9.5 Bcf/d in 2014 to 15.3 Bcf/d currently. Finally, the Anadarko, Niobrara and Bakken rose by a combined 4.6 Bcf/d over the timeframe. 

Going forward, RBN Energy:

However, the energy experts have predicted that the second wave of U.S. LNG growth will favor the southern basins.
RBN estimates that Appalachia has the potential to ramp up production by almost 8 Bcf/d to 42 Bcf/d over the next 10 years if unconstrained by pipeline takeaway capacity.
However, the analysts say that’s unlikely to happen given strong headwinds for midstream development in the region.
The Appalachian Basin is the country’s largest gas-producing region, churning out more than 35 Bcf/d. Unfortunately, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast. Indeed, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice recently acknowledged that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit a wall.” As a result, RBN says production growth in the basin is likely to be closer to just 3 Bcf/d, capping production at just under 38 Bcf/d on an annual average. 

The other plays:

Meanwhile, growth in the Anadarko, Niobrara and Bakken is likely to remain modest, altogether adding ~3.3 Bcf/d to reach almost 15.5 Bcf/d by 2032.
In other words, the bulk of U.S. LNG growth in this post-shale-boom era will come from the Texas and Louisiana basins.
RBN notes that both the Permian and Haynesville have been at the epicenter of midstream development in recent months while the Eagle Ford has been showing signs of a production recovery of late, after a decline in recent years.
Bottom line:

“This assumes significant gas growth from the Permian and other associated gas plays. Any view where oil prices take enough of a dip to slow that activity in the Permian and you’re going to have even more of a call for gas from gassier basins,” the analysts have said.

Either way, it’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet those targets because takeaway constraints including limited pipeline capacity are seen as the biggest hurdle to growth of the sector despite the country being home to the world’s largest backlog of near-shovel-ready LNG projects.

U.S. LNG Is Booming, But Who Supplies The Gas? Alex Kimani -- December 4, 2022

Archived

The op-ed begins;

In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG.
Pundits are asking if the United States can ramp up production to meet future demand.  It’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet future LNG demand. 

Conversion:

  • 30 million metric tons = 266,193,434 boe 
  • /365 = 730,000 boepd
  • so, we're talking a million boepd LNG exports
  • link here

The article provides a great wrap-up for an incredible year for US LNG exports. And, yes, the Bakken is mentioned.

From wiki:

Since 2005, Qatargas has pioneered the development of two new classes of LNG carriers, referred to as Q-Flex and Q-Max.
Each ship has a cargo capacity of between 210,000 and 266,000 cubic metres (7,400,000 and 9,400,000 cu ft) and is equipped with a re-liquefaction plant. 
Today we see interest for small scale LNG bunker carriers. Some need to stay below the life rafts of Cruise ships and Ropax vessels.
Examples are the Damen LGC 3000 and the Seagas.
By 2005 a total of 203 vessels had been built, of which 193 were still in service.
At the end of 2016, the global LNG shipping fleet consisted of 439 vessels. 
In 2017, an estimated 170 vessels are in use at any one time
At the end of 2018, the global fleet was approximately 550 vessels.
In 2021—2022, an LNG shipment from USA to Europe could return a profit of $133—200 million. Shipping rates were $100,000 per day even for 5-year contracts, but can vary between $60,000—250,000.

Conversion:

  • 1 cubic meter of LNG = 0.4049 tonnes
  • 250,000 cubic meters = 100,000 tons
  • 30 million tons / 100,000 tons = 300 Q-Max vessels

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. 

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Prices

Tonight, Sunday night, pre-market oil (up 2%) and natural gas (down 5%):

Energy Costs Make New EV Plants "Unfeasible" -- VW CEO -- December 4, 2022

Themes.

Themes - 2023.

European de-industrialization. 

Energy Cost Make New EV Plants “Unfeasible” 

By ZeroHedge - Dec 03, 2022, 4:00 PM CST 

Rising costs of energy in Europe are making battery cell factories unfeasible. 

Volkswagen brand CEO Thomas Schaefer: investments in German and EU projects will no longer make financial sense if policy makers fail to control ballooning energy prices. 

Volkswagen is in the process of putting 6 battery factories in operation across Europe by the year 2030.

Planning these battery factories must have begun at least two years ago. They must not have seen the European energy crunch coming. 

Updating The Hess EN-Hermanson Wells -- December 4, 2022

August 27, 3022: 24561 (back on line), 24356 (IA), 24615 (550K), 24357 (back on line). Let's see what these wells are doionig now that neighboring wells have been fracked:

  • 24356: remains off line, IA
  • 24615: unremarkable, an Oasis well.
  • 24357, 724, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-3, Robinson Lake, t7/13; cum 183K 10/22; recent production, AL:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202231106611065220311000
BAKKEN9-2022277419739633551112110444677
BAKKEN8-2022174689450217924082222186
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-202220624000
BAKKEN4-20221483931721281253
BAKKEN3-20221134736612238429886
BAKKEN2-202228667642370882721161
BAKKEN1-202261761806330926643
BAKKEN12-202131509517259794676118
BAKKEN11-202130578571263840717123
BAKKEN10-20213160060027977671957
  • 24561, 533, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-4, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum 166K 10/22; recent production, F:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022317842784619045000
BAKKEN9-20222158185696106737283197531
BAKKEN8-2022810731030279100796443
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202200130000
BAKKEN3-20221126727938540834266
BAKKEN2-202228468475343644531113
BAKKEN1-202231583565317803660143
BAKKEN12-202131500500349771655116
BAKKEN11-20212036035822255447876
BAKKEN10-20212749949927264659947
BAKKEN9-202130520520322800696104

Updating A Million-Bbl Whitman Well That CLR Just Brought Back On Line -- December 4, 2022

September 7, 2022: 20210; 20212; a huge -- million-barrel -- Whitman well taken off line while other Whitman wells fracked. Back on line

Updated recent production:

  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, t9/11; cum 1,073,310 bbls 10/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022316688655113133795275330
BAKKEN9-202221392438206768434340720
BAKKEN8-20227336931832084348734090
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-2022230260254530
BAKKEN3-2022311143411435213524764243520
BAKKEN2-2022281052610625223522769223910
BAKKEN1-2022311172411681304024686242670
BAKKEN12-2021301063010691347322675222820
BAKKEN11-2021301182011842237325132247580

Is EOG Fracking Some Riverview Wells In The Sanish? December 4, 2022

May 18, 2019: see this record-breaking well (#30286); these neighboring wells should report soon: #31447, #31449, #31444 (PNC):  #31448, 31450, 

#30286, went off line 9/22; are the neighboring wells being fracked? They are all still on the confidential list. 

  • 30286, 1,974, EOG, Riverview 102-32H, Antelope, s3/16/15; TD 3/20/15; MD 15,564', TVD 10,523'; short lateral, 23 stages, 12.8 million lbs, 320-acre spacing, W/2 sect 29-152-94, t6/15; cum 649K 3/10; cum 706K 8/22; off line as of 9/22;

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Sleeping Beauty's Apple



De-Industrialization Of China, Rise Of Non-Sino Asia, Re-Shoring Or Something Else? December 4, 2022

Link here.

If China "opens up," is this the reason?

Link here.


So, all of a sudden I'm supposed to be worried about China's economy? LOL.

For The Archives -- Random Data Points -- History Of Two Shields Butte Wells In Heart Butte Oil Field -- December 4, 2022

As a reminder, Devon acquired Rimrock assets in the Bakken, June, 2022.

But over the years, some Rimrock wells had a change in operator, some wells had multiple changes in operators.

For the archives:

  • 18989, 958, WPX/RimRock/Whiting/Kodiak, Two Shields Butte 14-21-33-16H3; spud 7/2/10; TD 7/28/10, Heart Butte, t12/10; cum 355K 4/21; no real jump in production; Three Forks well; 5 stages; 500,000 lbs -- that was all; some history
    • October 10, 2022: change of operator from Rimrock to WPX; about 350 wells transferred;
    • February 12, 2018: change of operator from Whiting to Rimrock; about 110 wells transferred;
    • December, 2014: Whiting acquired KOG

Two Shields Butte wells are tracked here.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 4, 2022

The wells:

  • 38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 36899, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2022141740
9-20221659616277
8-20222235220458
7-20221769616114
6-20221311211333
  • 35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
  •  38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2022148720
9-20221592336657
8-20221598630466
7-20222957734078
6-20223367866197
  • 38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36898, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2022157140
9-20221285911872
8-20221654113212
7-20222206518838
6-20221522811732
  • 38898, conf, CLR, Bonney 8-3H, Jim Creek, no production data, 
  • 38411, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20222412122150
9-20222381413978
8-2022183383799
7-20222101116302
6-202219271862
  • 35528, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2022164490
9-20222524061703
8-20221847938164
7-20222745229195
6-20223410952997
  • 38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38896, conf, CLR, Bonney 11-3HSL, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38852, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 4-18-19-158N-99W-MBH, 
  • 38895, conf, CLR, Bonney 10-3HSL1, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38851, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL, Ellisville, no production data,
  • 38894, conf, CLR, Bonney 9-3H, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 38850, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
  • 38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5, Smoky Butte, no production data,
  • 38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3, Ross, no production data,
  • 38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20223723351152
9-20221524821027
8-20221376323107
7-20221979238250
6-20224812265381
  • 29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
  • 37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20224369266588
9-20227050198008
8-20221835424281
7-20223775947114
6-202269099387
  • 29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H, Jim Creek, no production data, 
  • 29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 4, 2022

Wednesday, December 14, 2022: 34 for the month, 143 for the quarter, 687 for the year.
38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH,
38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H,
36899, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H,
35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U,

Tuesday, December 13, 2022: 30 or the month, 139 for the quarter,  683 for the year.
38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4,
38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH,
38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H
36898, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H,

Monday, December 12, 2022: 26 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 679 for the year.
38898, conf, CLR, Bonney 8-3H,
38411, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5HU,
35528, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U,

Sunday, December 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 676 for the year.
38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5,

Saturday, December 10, 2022: 22 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 675 for the year.
38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1, 

Friday, December 9, 2022: 21 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 674 for the year.
38896, conf, CLR, Bonney 11-3HSL,
38852, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 4-18-19-158N-99W-MBH,

Thursday, December 8, 2022: 19 for the month, 128 or the quarter,   672 for the year.
38895, conf, CLR, Bonney 10-3HSL1,
38851, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL,

Wednesday, December 7, 2022: 17 for the month, 126 for the quarter, 670 for the year.
38894, conf, CLR, Bonney 9-3H,
38850, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5,

Tuesday, December 6, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
None.

Monday, December 5, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3,
38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H,
37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H,
29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH,

Sunday, December 4, 2022: 10 for the month, 119 for the quarter, 663 for the year.
38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1,
37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H,
29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH,

Saturday, December 3, 2022: 7 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 660 for the year.
38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H,
29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,

Posted Overnight -- Saudi's Monthly Foreign Exchange Reserves-- October, 2022, Data

Over the weekend, this morning, Sunday, December 4, 2022, OPEC+ voted to maintain production cuts, no change. This is probably why:

Link here.



Now that the mid-terms are over, President Biden says he has no problem with the decision. At least that's what I read somewhere. 

Buc-ee's: We'll Start Here This Sunday Morning Before Moving On To The Bakken -- December 4, 2022

Link here.

By the remarks in the thread, one can immediately tell who had not been to a Buc-ee's! LOL.