WTI at 9:28 a.m. CT, December 1, 2022: $83.28.
Natural gas: $7.084.
MNRL: surges 5% and hits a new 52-week high.
Thursday, December 1, 2022
Where Is Everybody? Fed Chairperson JPow Addressed This Yesterday; Folks Living In A Van Down By The River -- December 1, 2022
- Driving the news:
- Fed chair Jay Powell yesterday provided some answers, in a speech that garnered bigger headlines for signaling that the pace of interest rate hikes will slow.
- By the numbers:
- Powell says that there are around 3.5 million fewer U.S. workers than forecast.
- He argued that most of that gap, or around 2 million people, was caused by "excess retirements."
- In other words, more people called it quits over the past couple of years than normally would have aged out. Factors for these early enders include health concerns (including increased COVID risks for older workers), costs related to finding jobs and increased financial flexibility due to housing and stock market gains.
- The other major driver, according to Powell, is slower working-age population growth.
- Specifically, a significant decrease in net immigration and a "surge in deaths during the pandemic."
I don't buy the "surge in deaths during the pandemic. There were no "excess deaths" in 2021; and, the Covid-19 deaths were predominantly in the over-80 age group, in other words, those who used to be Walmart greeters, a category of workers long phased out by that retailer.
Two groups he missed:
- the GenZ's still living at home in their parents' basements; and,
- those living in a van down by the river.
This Guy Gets It -- December 1, 2022
Updates
December 13, 2022: See this note.
Original Post
It will be interesting to see all the naysayers eagerly accept mRNA treatment for cancer, chronic debilitating disease, and psoriasis.
mRNA is the new GMO.
Think malaria and Bill Gates.
Think Fauci, Jr., and "seasonal flu."
This is not new. This had been in development for years, but Covid-19 allowed the technology to be tested on a wide scale.
Folks May Want To Top Off Their Tanks Today -- Gasoline Prices To Spike Over The Weekend -- December 1, 2022
At the open, after a huge surge yesterday:
- DVN: up 1.82%; up $1.25; trading at $69.77.
- CVX: flat; trading at $183.49; yields 3.09%. That Venezuela story not doing much for CVX.
- COP: up 1.24%; up $19; trading at $125.00.
- MNRL: up 2.57%; up $0.91; trading at $36.34. Yields 8.34%.
- CHRD: up 0.55%; up $$0.83; trading at $153.36.
- should CHRD be the "proxy" for publicly traded companies predominantly operating in the Bakken now that CLR has gone private?
From oilprice, 8:50 a.m. CT, December 1, 2022:
Transistors On A Chip (oC); System On A Chip (SoC) -- December 1, 2022
Chip race: updated over at wiki.
Investors.
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
December 1, 2022: transistors on a chip, updated.
Huge Developments With Apple, TSM, Twitter And China -- All Good -- December 1, 2022
Updates
December 3, 2022: TSMC Plans to Make More Advanced Chips in US at Urging of Apple. Nothing new; simply a link to a Bloomberg article.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. will offer advanced 4-nanometer chips when its new $12 billion plant in Arizona opens in 2024, an upgrade from its previous public statements, after US customers such as Apple Inc. pushed the company to do so.
Original Post
China: lock downs easing?
Twitter: joining forces Apple; Tim Cook and Elon Musk love-fest. This is huge; bigger than folks might think.
TSM: Joe Biden to visit TSM facility in Phoenix next month. Link here.
Apple / TSM: to move to 4 nm sooner than expected. Link here.
Chip race: updated over at wiki.
Investors.
Chips, semiconductor:
December 1, 2022: transistors on a chip, updated.
Market -- three things
- Dow officially entered bull market territory yesterday, November 30, 2022
- TSM: up 4.6% yesterday; up $3.65; trading at $83.
- AAPL: up 4.86% yesterday; up $6.88; trading at $148.03
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Greta: How Dare You! -- December 1, 2022
Link here.
I agree with the reader. A reading of 417 at the time and site of a volcano erupting when the previous number was 415 is certainly suspect.
A reader noted:
The volcano is currently active and the lava flow may close a major road. The published current CO2 level is 417.31.
Volcano eruptions and venting release most of the atmospheric CO2.
The level was taken at 3:53 AM local time this morning. May be time to calibrate the sensor????? I would expect a huge rise in the local measurements of CO2.The November, 2022, data will be updated on/about December 10, 2022. Last year:
Initial Jobless Claims -- December 1, 2022
"When everybody is predicting the same thing, something else will likely happen."
Initial jobless claims: down 16,000 to 225,000.
Dow moves up. Futures up 100 points. At open, down 100. Profit taking from yesterday's huge. I expect Dow to close in the green before the weekend.
Personal income: up 0.7% vs 0.4% estimate.
JOLTs from yesterday: down but still more than 10 million job openings. JOLTS.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Steve Liesman: "some kind of recession we're having." LOL.
- personal income up
- spending up
- initial jobs claims down
- market up
Yeah: "some kind of recession we're having." LOL.
GDP: new estimate to be released today. Previous:
Fed: makes sense to moderate thte pace of oouur rate increases.
Core CPE price index: up 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
- Mohamed el-Erian: inflation is coming down
- real economy continues to do well
- assets to go higher for tactical players; much tougher for long-term players
- recession risk uncomfortably high but could avoid
- if we slip into recession, unlikely to be short and shalloow
- "feeling better for now"
Kroger: guides better. This is a grocer.
Dow: in bull market territory
Kroger -- December 1, 2022
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Breaking: Sempra Signs LNG Supply Deal With Ineos For Port Arthur Project -- December 1, 2022
Updates
December 19, 2022: link here.
Original Post
We've been waiting for this news.
- Sempra said Thursday, today, December 1, 2022, it entered into a long-term sale and purchase agreement with Ineos for the supply of liquefied natural gas from Phase 1 of its Port Arthur LNG project under development in Texas.
- Ineos will purchase ~1.4M metric tons/year of LNG delivered free-on-board from the proposed liquefaction project for a 20-year term.
- The companies also signed a non-binding heads of agreement for Ineos' potential purchase of an additional 200K tons/year from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project under development.
- Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 is permitted and expected to include two natural gas liquefaction trains and LNG storage tanks and associated facilities capable of producing as much as 13.5M tons/year of LNG, with first cargo deliveries anticipated in 2027. Sempra (SRE) recently announced a 20-year supply deal with ConocoPhillips, which also agreed to acquire 30% of the equity in Phase 1.
See tags at bottom for list of posts where this is all followed.
For investors: this news will not affect share prices for SRE today. Nothing ever affects SRE share price.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Yesterday, SRE was up 3.02%; up $4.87; closed at $166.19. This "$124-stock" yields just 2.76%. SRE will likely raise its dividend from $1.45 to $1.55 in the February / March, 2023, declaration.
Welcome To December -- WTI Back Over $81 This Morning -- December 1, 2022
WTI: back over $81 this morning.
Alex Kiimani, link here.
China could actually end up being the icing on the oil price cake. It’s like saving up for a surge. “The pent-up demand out of China is going to be enormous. “That could swing demand by at least a million barrels a day, and that could easily make the difference between an oil price forecast of $95 to $105 versus $120 to $130. Easily,” Amrita Sen, director of research for Energy Aspects, told WSJ.
China: hints that restrictive policies easing.
- China has given us many head-fakes before but this time it looks different, but it's not gonna happen overnight.
Julianne Geiger, link here.
United States commercial crude oil inventories sank more than 12 million barrels last week, according to EIA data—after crude oil exports, including refined products, soared to the most ever to nearly 11.8 million bpd. This compares to crude oil and product exports at the beginning of the year at 6.6 million bpd, and 7.5 million bpd in the same week last year.
Javier Blas:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
***************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $81.60.
Natural gas: $7.012.
Active rigs: 40.
Friday, December 2, 2022: 5 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 658 for the year.
38802, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 16-27HSL1,
37963, conf, Enerplus, Pancake 151-94-16B-21H,
38174, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FUI 11-28H,
37964, conf, Enerplus, Omelet 151-94-16B-21H,
29285, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 4-19-30TFH,
RBN Energy: counterintuitive premises at heart of debate over RINs policy.
The Renewable Identification Number, or RIN, market is so misunderstood that even its main participants don’t agree on its financial impact, effectiveness, or even basic fairness. RINs are a feature of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which requires renewable fuels like ethanol and bio-based diesel to be blended into fuels sold in the U.S. And depending on your point of view — trader, farmer, refiner, blender, consumer, politician — you may have a very different perspective about how the system works. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report that attempts to make sense of the complexities of the RINs market.
Huge Developments With Apple, TSM, Twitter And China -- All Good -- December 1, 2022
China: lock downs easing?
Twitter: joining forces Apple; Tim Cook and Elon Musk love-fest.
TSM: Joe Biden to visit TSM facility in Phoenix next month.
Chip race: updated over at wiki.
Apple / TSM: to move to 4 nm sooner than expected.
All this and more -- with links and charts and comments -- later today.
Investors.
Chips, semiconductor: link here. Not updated yet; will be by end of day.
Market -- three things
- Dow officially entered bull market territory yesterday, November 30, 2022
- TSM: up 4.6% yesterday; up $3.65; trading at $83.
- AAPL: up 4.86% yesterday; up $6.88; trading at $148.03
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.