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Saturday, November 19, 2022

LNG -- US Defeats Canada -- November 19, 2022

Updates

Later, 00:22 a.m. CT: link here. 

Original Post 

Link here.

The Globe And Mail.

Long, long article. Archived.


This is perhaps one of the best articles I have ever seen on this subject. 

No paywall yet. 

Just one small excerpt from a very, very long article:

Despite anti-LNG protests in the U.S., proponents of more than 25 new projects and expansions there are jockeying for position to get their terminals built, with most of them clustered in Louisiana and Texas.

Given the fierce competition and limited pipeline capacity, industry experts expect two-thirds of the proposals will be suspended or outright cancelled. Yet that still leaves room for perhaps seven or eight new terminals, in addition to the three already under construction.

Of the total exports recently of LNG from the U.S., about 70 per cent went to Europe and the rest got shipped to Asia and other overseas markets.

Depending on how many new U.S. projects move ahead and how quickly, the country’s export capacity could surge to 150 million tonnes a year by 2029, or nearly 11 times higher than LNG Canada’s initial capacity. Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG, which plan to start exporting in 2027 from B.C., are both small-scale projects.

The U.S. LNG export renaissance began in February, 2016, when Sabine Pass LNG started shipping the fuel from its Louisiana site near the state’s boundary with Texas – the first project to begin exporting LNG from the lower 48 states.

But the roots of that revival date back to 2006. The U.S. was preparing for a wave of LNG imports, and companies built facilities to accept foreign supplies.

Clark Williams-Derry, a Seattle-based analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the U.S. had a head start over Canada with planning and existing infrastructure because five of the current U.S. export terminals were originally configured as sites to handle imports. They provided the foundation for the post-2016 boom.

USC Defeats UCLA — November 19, 2022


My alma mater. No regrets but how I would love to re-live those years!



East Coast Storm -- ISO NE -- November 19, 2022

ISO NE:

  • demand, only: 14K MW
  • $135 / MW

New York, link here:

Residents in western New York got even more snow Saturday after a major winter storm walloped the region Friday, dropping a total of more than 6 feet in some areas and shutting down schools and businesses.
The National Weather Service said snow was falling in parts of Niagara County at a rate of two to three inches per hour on Saturday afternoon.
Jurkowski called the whopping 6 feet of snow one of the top three heaviest snowfalls in recorded history for the Buffalo region.
It hasn't received this amount of snow since 2014. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Saturday that it could be the most snowfall in a 24-hour period in New York's history. She said she had deployed 150 National Guard and that she was requesting a federal emergency declaration.

From Josh Young:

Flashback: January 5, 2018.

CBS And Twitter: If Only -- November 19, 2022

Updates

November 20, 2022:  just now, link here:

Original Post 

Link here.

Not only is the original tweet misleading, CBS will not only remain on Twitter, it will pay the corporate fee for "blue check" verification or it will cede its message on the #1 social media site to the opposition.


From my perspective, CBS provides no "value added" to twitter. I've never seen a CBS tweet.

And as far as "value added" goes, Elon Musk knows that also.

How Much Is Earmarked For California? November 19, 2022

Important, announced yesterday:

Most important: "who" gets the $13 billion? How will it be spread around? Conventional grid infrastructure or semiconductors to manage the grid or money direct to renewables, like batteries?

Dueling Charts -- November 19, 2022

Link here:

And, then this. Does the link / chart below corroborate "my favorite graph"? If so, incredibly subtle. Incredibly subtle. I think it's wishful thinking, a mirage, or click bait.

Ranting And Raving -- Where Are My Meds? November 19, 2022

Updates

Later, 9:52 p.m. CT: WSJ confirms my feelings about the "misery index" and why there was no "Red Tide."

  • inflation rate of 5% vs 8% not even noticeable by most voters;
  • unemployment at record lows a much better "indicator" -- everyone has a job who wants a job
  • an accurate misery index must overweight employment/unemployment; underweight inflation
  • if employed, can mange inflation;
  • if unemployed, inflation doesn't matter;

Original Post 

You have no idea how many e-mails I get from readers regarding the price of turkeys compared to the few replies I get regarding the Bakken. LOL. 

We have it pretty good in America when our chief concern seems to be the price of a Thanksgiving dinner.

While on the treadmill earlier today, I was thinking about that. I doubt any of my readers are affected by the price of:

  • hotel rooms on a daily basis;
  • used cars on a yearly basis;
  • furniture, ever;
  • appliances, ever;
  • clothing, ever; or,
  • recreation, on a daily basis.

And that's where the inflation is. See below.

Ex-energy.

Ex-groceries.

With regard to groceries, that annual increase can be managed relatively easy.

Transportation? My hunch: total annual transportation costs have decreased as a percent of disposable income for most of my readers over the past ten years.

And used cars? Talk about transitory:


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Inflation

From September 13, 2022:

Whenever I see stories about high inflation here in the states, I keep coming back to this graph:

I was reminded of that when I came across this today (link: https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1549346241737379843):

North Dakota Posts Record Natural Gas Production, Capture Rates; TC Eyes Northern Border Expansion -- November 19, 2022

From Geoff Simon this week, top North Dakota energy stories:

Link here.

Note the URL: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/north-dakota-posts-record-natural-gas-production-capture-rates-tc-eyes-northern-border-expansion/.

This is such an important article I've archived it

I still feel strongly that this is a Trojan horse. North Dakota does not need coal-generated electricity from Colstrip, Montana. North Dakota needs to figure out what to do with all that natural gas or North Dakota is going to have a real problem, as soon as two years from now. 

From the linked article with regard to TC's expansion hopes:

On TC’s third quarter earnings call earlier this month, Vice President Stanley Chapman, who is in charge of U.S. and Mexico natural gas pipelines said Northern Border “is a critical part of our unparalleled asset footprint across the U.S. 

The fundamentals still remain very strong and support the need for an expansion.” He said that flows on Northern Border were up quarter/quarter during 3Q2022, and that the firm has closed a nonbinding open season to expand capacity.

“We are still negotiating with our customers to get to definitive agreements,” Chapman said, “and while it’s taking a little bit longer to get that done, our in-service date of early 2026 and our capital estimate to get that project done hasn’t moved.”

The Grid -- Again, Biden Is Getting It Done -- November 19, 2022

Investors.

EVs: not for me. But I will be investing in "picks and shovels."

"Picks and shovels" includes those engaged in the "grid," the infrastructure" that will be required to support all those EVs, win or lose.

Important, announced yesterday:

Most important: "who" gets the $13 billion? How will it be spread around? Conventional grid infrastructure or semiconductors to manage the grid or money direct to renewables, like batteries?

The most simple example. Take a walk around your neighborhood. Look up. Note the transformers on the utility poles. All of these transformers will have to be replaced, or additional transformers will need to be fixed to the utility poles to support all the new EVs in each neighborhood. Rule of thumb: in a typical US neighborhood, the current infrastructure will not support more than three EVs. 

Who manufactures those transformers? Start here

Other screenshots:





My current "new-money allocation" won't change for now. Plenty of time to change that allocation.

My current "new-money allocation" remains:

  • Buffett, blue-chip: 40%
  • tech infrastructure (mostly chips): 30%
  • energy (mostly oil): 20%
  • mRNA: 10%

Any "new money" for electric grid infrastructure will go into the "Buffet, blue chip" bucket since the big manufacturers already have this locked up.

For Investors: LTM Vs NTM -- November 19, 2022

LTM vs NTM, link here:


Read the thread to see why "SNOW" is not in the upside-down pyramid, link here:

Céline Dion, Whitney Houston, Taylor Swift: Going Down A Rabbit Hole -- November 19, 2022

Link here.

Six of the best, link here

  • the songs (excludes "Motown"):
    • Beyoncé -- "Love on Top"; four key changes
    • Adele -- "All I Ask"; a song driven by the key change
    • Taylor Swift -- "Love Story"; marked the start of her crossover from country to pop
    • Daft Punk -- "Within"
    • Lady Gaga -- "Perfect Illusion"; one of the boldest key changes ever sung
    • Ariana Grande -- "Greedy"; a key change that needs to be heard to be believed
  • the fact that Coolaccidents failed to mention Céline Dion and/or Eric Carmen (The Raspberries; "All By Myself") tells me everything I need to know about Coolaccidents.

Songs with prominent key changes, link here:


Modulation: wiki. Sentiment is accurate: "Motown" is misspelled and source is incorrect. Source was corrected later at the link. 

Correct source: Forte, Allen (1979). Tonal Harmony in Concept & Practice, p. 265. ISBN 0-03-020756-8.

Motown music, modulation was key, link here.

Taylor Swift, link here.


The most elegant key change in all of pop music, link here:

And of course, then we have Del Shannon's "Runaway," link here:

EVs: Not For Me -- November 19, 2022

Investors.

EVs: not for me. But I will be investing in "picks and shovels."

In the same sentence: bleeding, RIVN, LCID, GM.

Now, this

PPI MOM -- October, 2022

The number one "reason" for US inflation when it spiked a few months ago? Used cars.

Now, price of used cars in the US falling at the fastest rate in history. 

Fact-check me on that. 

That story -- price of used cars -- started appearing two weeks ago. 

This story started appearing everywhere this week. 

This is US PPI MoM for October (has anyone been following housing prices in the US -- collapsing).

  • 0.2%
  • came in less than expected

This is the Canadian PPI MoM for October (has anyone been following housing prices in Canada -- surging):

  • 2.4% (is that 12x what US had?)
  • came in way more than forecast:
    • forecast: 0.5%

And, yes, US PPI MoM is tracked:




Price Of Oil Diverges From The Josh Young Narrative -- November 19, 2022

Updates

November 20, 2022: see this post.

Original Post

Contributing?

Short-term, this week:  

First. This is perhaps the #1 reason; Europe has run out of storage space for more oil.

Second reason: Zydeco. This pipeline, when shut down, forces oil from Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and the Permian to be re-routed to Cushing. Cushing is WTI. Link here.

Zydeco: story everywhere. One link.

Long-term, 2023:

#1 reason: recession.

#2 reason: decreasing demand. 

Both subjects covered here. Highly recommend that readers subscribe to this channel:

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Huge Story

Can You Connect The Dots?
Novorossiysk

Novorossiysk: a city in Krasnodar Krai, Russia. 

It is one of the largest ports on the Black Sea.
The city sprawls along the shore of the non-freezing Tsemess Bay, which has been recognized since antiquity as one of the superior bays of the Black Sea.
The Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port–with the market capitalization of $1.1 billion and shares listed at Moscow Exchange and London Stock Exchange–serves Russian sea trade with regions of Asia, Middle East, Africa, Mediterranean, and South America.
It is the busiest oil port in the Black Sea and the terminus of the pipeline from the Tengiz Field, developed by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
Novorossiysk is also an industrial city, dependent on steel, food processing, and the production of metal goods and other manufactures. Extensive limestone quarries supply important cement factories in and around the city. The town is home to the Maritime State Academy and Novorossiysk Polytechnic Institute [think "Houston" in this region].

Peter Zeihan first reported this a day earlier

Then yesterday

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Flashback

This was tweeted yesterday but tthe tweeter posted a Hess CEO quote from 2016 that probably still holds true.

Link here.


Advice to investors:
  • have a plan.
  • stick to the plan.