Pages

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Five Bios -- November 10, 2022

Jack Welch: ruthless; "took advantage of a banking loophole" to build a US conglomerate; the enterprise was so vast, others were unable to see the mess he had created; handed it over to an unsuspecting Jeff Immelt who spent seventeen years trying to right the ship; unsuccessful.

Elon Musk: buys Twitter $44 billion, a company that might have been worth $11 billion when the deal closed; no clear plan how to monetize it; he hasn't ruled out Twitter bankruptcy in 2023.

Mark Zuckerberg: way over-hired (too many employees); "group-think" led him to the metaverse which even if it works, was decades premature going down that road; there is real risk of Zuck losing the entire company.

Jeff Bezos: buys and successfully monetizes Thursday Night Football for $1 billion on an annual basis; foresaw slowdown and cut back on warehouse real estate;

Tim Cook: viewed as an expert in logistics, but real talent may be understanding basic human needs.

************************
Talking Turkey

After posting a note on Thanksgiving meal expenses, I ended up in an e-mail discussion with a reader from Minnesota. Both he and I were comparing notes on grocers giving frozen turkeys away as promotional items if customers bought $50 to $100 worth of groceries.

If grocers are giving away turkeys as promotional items that suggests to me there is not a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys as the mainstream media would have us believe. 

I also noted the price: that a non-Butterball turkey was actually slightly less expensive than last year (although I might be comparing non-Butterball with Butterball turkeys). Be that as it may, you can still get a Thanksgiving turkey for less than $1.00 / pound.

Curious, the Minnesota reader simply typed in Butterball in his google search and this was his return:

Google/Walmart was tracking his location and referred him to a Mankato, MN, Walmart store. Note: this Butterball turkey at Walmart was priced at $1.18 / pound, a decrease from the "original" or perhaps competitor's price of a $1.70 / pound. 

This certainly suggests to me that there is not now a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys and they aren't much more expensive than last year.

However: my hunch is that by the last week in November, before Thanksgiving Thursday, it may be hard to find a turkey at your local grocery story. Plan accordingly. 

.... it never quits. Now this, another google search that took me to Amazon:

**************************
The Book Page

Ordered from Amazon today; will arrive tomorrow:

  • Cinema Speculation, Quentin Tarantino, published November 1, 2022. 

Considering Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of An American Icon, William D. Cohan, to be released November 15, 2022. Weighs 2.55 pounds; 816 pages. Rank:

  • best seller list: #2,864
  • oil and energy: #1 -- this is why I will get the book if I get the book.

NDIC Office Closed -- Winter Storm -- November 10, 2022

CDC flu statistics updated: November 10, 2022.

Market surges:

*************************
Back to the Bakken
As expected: no daily activity report
Office closed for inclement weather
Holiday tomorrow

Active rigs: 39 (yesterday)

WTI: $86.82.

Natural gas: $6.077

Another Look At That Thanksgiving Turkey -- November 10, 2022

Updates

10:15 p.m. CT, November 10, 2022:

After posting a note on Thanksgiving meal expenses, I ended up in an e-mail discussion with a reader from Minnesota. Both he and I were comparing notes on grocers giving frozen turkeys away as promotional items if customers bought $50 to $100 worth of groceries.

If grocers are giving away turkeys as promotional items that suggests to me there is not a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys as the mainstream media would have us believe. 

I also noted the price: that a non-Butterball turkey was actually slightly less expensive than last year (although I might be comparing non-Butterball with Butterball turkeys). Be that as it may, you can still get a Thanksgiving turkey for less than $1.00 / pound.

Curious, the Minnesota reader simply typed in Butterball in his google search and this was his return:

Google/Walmart was tracking his location and referred him to a Mankato, MN, Walmart store. Note: this Butterball turkey at Walmart was priced at $1.18 / pound, a decrease from the "original" or perhaps competitor's price of a $1.70 / pound. 

This certainly suggests to me that there is not now a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys and they aren't much more expensive than last year.

However: my hunch is that by the last week in November, before Thanksgiving Thursday, it may be hard to find a turkey at your local grocery story. Plan accordingly. 

.... it never quits. Now this, another google search that took me to Amazon:

**************************
Original Post

From October, 2022:

New York Times: "turkeys will cost more than ever this year." Let's fact-check that.

Walmart, yesterday, turkey: $1.48 / pound, not Butterball.

Last year: $99 cents / pound. See here.

An increase of 50%. 

Well, let's taken another look

Yesterday at one of our "high end" grocers -- "high end" with regard to selection and quality for "foodies."

First, Butterball turkeys appear to have gone up from $1.00 / pound to $1.50 / pound, meaning that a 20-pound turkey will cost $30 this year compared to $20 last. Most Americans won't notice. 

But hold on for just a minute.

I assume any family of four (or more) will easily spend $100 on a grocery shopping trip this month. At that "high end" grocery store, if you spend $100 you get a free turkey, any size -- repeat, any size -- no hidden fees; no small print -- a free turkey. 

Unless someone pays you to "take" a turkey, I doubt you can find a less expensive turkey: $0.00 / pound.

 Okay, so there's that.

But let's say you don't want to spend a $100 on toilet paper, paper towels, wine, cranberries and a table floral arrangement, you can buy that same turkey for two cents less per pound than last year, at 97 cents / pound.


Americans have it pretty good.

HallÄ, Greta -- Daily Activity Report May Be Delayed -- November 10, 2022


 Snowfall records, link here


 We have "hola"; "hey, Siri"; and, "Alexa." 

Now we need: "hallÄ, Greta."

Industrializing Biden's America -- November 10, 2022

Disruptive:

Lordstown - Foxconn partner: link here.

  • Ohio-plant
  • Lordstown: "working" to increase production oof its debut model, the Endurance.
  • $170 million: to hire engineers and fund operations
  • to include building the first 500 pickup trucks
  • but will also develop an electric vehicle with the Taipei-based contract manufacturer

 Industrializing America, link here:

Chips: INTC Vs TSMC -- November 10, 2022


Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Intel: laying off 20% of workforce.

TSMC: to build another fabrication plant in Arizona alongside the $12 billion factory it has already committed to in Phoenix. Link here.

The second plant will be located north of Phoenix and investment is expected to be roughly similar to the $12 billion the company committed to in 2020, according to people familiar with the plans who spoke to WSJ.

The original plant was originally expected to exclusively mass-produce 5nm chips, but it is now gearing up to also produce more advanced 4nm chips with larger capacity at the facility, according to WSJ's sources. The plant is expected to start mass production in 2024.

Meanwhile, the second plant is expected to manufacture cutting edge next-generation 3nm chips, a process that Apple is rumored to be moving its custom silicon to starting with the M2 Pro or M3 chip. Both Apple's M3 chip for Macs and A17 chip for iPhone 15 Pro models are expected to be manufactured based on TSMC's enhanced 3nm process. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has said he expects the M2 Pro to be used in the 14-inch MacBook Pro, 16-inch MacBook Pro, and a high-end Mac mini.

The news about TSMC's unannounced plans follows attempts by the Biden administration to attract investments in U.S. chipmaking by offering companies billions in financial support to become established in the country. The efforts aim to counter China's tech sector ambitions and secure components considered vital to national security. The efforts were accelerated after the chip shortages in late 2020 and 2021 underlined how important semiconductors have become in the world of consumer electronics.

Morning Quickie -- November 9, 2022


No, Jay Powell
won't quit raising rates. Investors are simply taking advantage of huge sell-off yesterday.

Inflation peaking? Link here.

Inflation went down faster than expected in October, dropping to a year-over-year rate of 7.7%.
Inflation is down from its 9.1% June year-over-year peak, but still nowhere near the Federal Reserve’s benchmark target rate of 2%. 

Taking flight: link here.

  • Bookings down but fares up = nice returns for airlines.

Ukraine: attacks Russians retreating from Kherson; Moscow never requested "green corridor."

This is not an investment site; no recommendations. Usual disclaimers apply.

Bloomberg Gets It: Diesel Crisis Is Logistical, Not Inventories -- November 10, 2022

Copper: a shortage looms, Barron's

OXY: opportunity?

XOM: credible source, but can't find verification. I don't believe it.

INTC: one outlier in this list --

Buybacks: link here. They work for a few companies, for a few investors.

META: folks actually talking about META "completely failing."

Is META foreshadowing EV industry?

Ukraine: Russian forces withdraw from Kherson -- Peter Zeihan.

Mid-terms:

************************
Bloomberg Opinion
Diesel

From today:

Having seemingly dodged a bullet over gasoline prices in the midterms, Democrats’ next energy hurdle concerns diesel.

With winter finally gusting into the Northeast, US stocks of the fuel are low, representing just 26 days’ worth of trailing demand (the 10-year average is 35). Hysteria about spigots running dry by Thanksgiving should be tempered by the fact that those 26 days only really mean something if the entire US oil industry were to shut down — a scenario in which we may have bigger concerns.

Nonetheless, we are clearly below norms, and low-sulfur diesel in New York Harbor has spiked back to almost $5 a gallon, or $209 a barrel.

The East Coast should use about 275 million barrels of distillate between November and May. Only about 40 million-45 million of those get produced in the region, with another, say, 165 million usually flowing in from Midwest refineries. That leaves a gap of at least 65 million barrels; maybe as many as 85 million if intrastate flows are low like last winter.

About 106 million barrels are stockpiled in the US, with about 25 million of those on the East Coast and another 66 million in the Midwest. Last winter, the East Coast also imported 62 million barrels.

So the math certainly is challenging but, in strictly domestic terms, not insurmountable. After all, US distillate production has outpaced demand by roughly 1 million barrels a day, on average, for a decade.

The big problem is logistical: the Northeast’s heavy dependence on barrels from other states and from across the Atlantic, leaving it prone to squeezes. In bidding for cargoes, it is hampered by the Jones Act, making state-to-state shipments from the Gulf Coast costly. Waivers or — keep dreaming — repeal would help enormously.

The other intervention the White House has actually talked about, however, is restricting product exports. As a further impediment to flows, this would be misguided. It also would prompt more backlash from the oil industry and potentially harm European allies on the front line of Russia’s energy war. Even so, President Joe Biden may now be feeling emboldened enough to act anyway.                                --Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion

Enerplus Reports Whales -- November 10, 2022

Peter Zeihan: link here.

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $85.21.

Natural gas: $5.961.

Friday, November 11, 2022: 21 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 603 for the year.
38725, conf, Slawson, Sauger Federal 5 SLTFH,
38380, conf, Oasis, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 2B,

Thursday, November 10, 2022: 19 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 601 for the year.
35491, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-15T,
35490, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-13B,

RBN Energy: a decade after 'RINsanity,' markets not iimmune to future price shocks, part 2.

The dramatic increase in the price of the D6 Renewable Identification Number a decade ago was one of the more spectacular moves in the history of major commodity trading. The spike in the price of RINs — the credits used to certify compliance with the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) — was brought on by a sudden uptick in demand and stakeholders who lacked sufficiently deep awareness and understanding of the complex RIN credit system. In today’s RBN blog, we use the story of 2013’s “Big Bang” in D6 RIN prices to explain the fundamental mechanism that determines RIN prices, consider whether such a price shock could occur again, and discuss what stakeholders can do to prepare.

FTX -- November 10, 2022

Link here.

$32 billion valuation to $0 in two days? Or was it two months?

This was the crypto being mined in El Salvador.

Crash

Cryptocurrency crashed on Wednesday, November 9, 2022, with most coins and tokens plummeting to multi-year lows.
Bitcoin has lost one quarter of its value this week alone as major crypto exchange FTX halted customer withdrawals and lost a potential buyout bid Wednesday from rival firm Binance.
Until a few days ago, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was considered an industry leader and a lender of last resort.
The media compared him to the Federal Reserve, Warren Buffett and J. P. Morgan. Now, potential lenders are backing away from FTX's toxic balance sheet. Bankman-Fried, just 30 years old, has lost most of his billions of dollars in wealth.
The fallout could trigger more large-scale failures in the cryptocurrency world. Cryptocurrency could tumble further after the market cap for the entire sector fell below $1 trillion on Wednesday. Regulators and politicians could seize the moment to warn of crypto's risks. But ultimately, cryptocurrency is here to stay. Some in the industry would argue that cryptocurrency companies will benefit as investors continue backing away from FTX.

I wonder how Kevin O'Leary's plan for crypto mining in North Dakota is working out?

Link here. As of October 12, 2022:


Will wonders never cease?

Meanwhile, link here:

Archived.

Dahl Federal -- Oasis -- 153-101

Sited in section 15. Run north, sections 10/3; or run west?

The names suggest the wells will run west-to-east, but the parent well ran south-to-north. All other wells in this area run north/south (or south/north) so it seems strange -- despite the names -- that these new wells would run west/east. 

Oh, good, here it is -- wells are conf but permits are available, see below.

The wells:

  • 38758, drl, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 5B, Baker, sections 3/10; spud 11/2/22;
  • 38757, conf, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 4B, Baker, sections 3/10;
  • 38756, conf, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 3B, Baker, sections 3/10;
  • 38755, conf, Dahl W Federal 5301 13-15 2B, Baker, sections 3/10;
  • 21796, 791, Dahl Federal 2-15H, Baker, t5/12; cum 343K 9/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20221456870510596065760
BAKKEN8-2022311153128924371260117527
BAKKEN7-20223112981251706141713610
BAKKEN6-202230108194325681149847241
BAKKEN5-20223110391090230598391611
BAKKEN4-20222887080616446726320
BAKKEN3-2022311090130583410359860
BAKKEN2-2022288725438657727263
BAKKEN1-2022144198693074103890
BAKKEN12-20213111631102878156015020

The graphics:


Eightmile

Graphics:




The wells: to be updated.

  • 37942, loc/A, Bowline, Missouri W 152-103-4-9-7H, Eightmile, t--; cum 145K 9/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20223019321194373940921781122898631
BAKKEN8-20223120392203774827118217106906665
BAKKEN7-20223122646226555720520415843111200
BAKKEN6-20223025195251136419421958813012990
BAKKEN5-20222924636247536224520127109438279
BAKKEN4-20222928052277987587325564699717360
BAKKEN3-20228439842601771040912223579
  • 36157, 895, Bowline, Missouri W 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile, t12/19; cum 302K 9/22; early production
BAKKEN7-2020311078710689380274813475360
BAKKEN6-202030121611207034307641312055208
BAKKEN5-202030114011140737945970309703
BAKKEN4-20202814972150154212314560014560
BAKKEN3-20202917643173894797916032016032
BAKKEN2-20202915511157014722416186016186
BAKKEN1-20203126232262167595624180024180
BAKKEN12-201931306653024510202720718020718
BAKKEN11-2019121192600101

**************************
An Old Madison Well

The well:

  • 10080, PA/73, Paul Rankin Inc, Grace Oyloe 1-4, Eightmile, formation: Madison; vertical; TD = 9300; t5/84; cum 138K 11/18; initial production:
MADISON1-19853016982023177018400
MADISON12-198421128916618402980163
MADISON11-198422109783812764970355
MADISON10-1984261588141417423670264
MADISON9-1984291960171217405280342
MADISON8-19843119692296207719900
MADISON7-1984181234129013503190196
MADISON6-1984241723165217284510250
MADISON5-1984179414101428122001071