Bloomberg Gets It: Diesel Crisis Is Logistical, Not Inventories -- November 10, 2022

Copper: a shortage looms, Barron's. 

OXY: opportunity?

XOM: credible source, but can't find verification. I don't believe it.

INTC: one outlier in this list --

Buybacks: link here. They work for a few companies, for a few investors.

• link here:
  

META: folks actually talking about META "completely failing."

Is META foreshadowing EV industry?

Ukraine: Russian forces withdraw from Kherson -- Peter Zeihan.

Mid-terms:

• same in Minnesota;
• Michigan: Democrats win back full control of the Legislature for the first time since 1983;

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Bloomberg Opinion
Diesel

From today:

Having seemingly dodged a bullet over gasoline prices in the midterms, Democrats’ next energy hurdle concerns diesel.

With winter finally gusting into the Northeast, US stocks of the fuel are low, representing just 26 days’ worth of trailing demand (the 10-year average is 35). Hysteria about spigots running dry by Thanksgiving should be tempered by the fact that those 26 days only really mean something if the entire US oil industry were to shut down — a scenario in which we may have bigger concerns.

Nonetheless, we are clearly below norms, and low-sulfur diesel in New York Harbor has spiked back to almost $5 a gallon, or $209 a barrel.

The East Coast should use about 275 million barrels of distillate between November and May. Only about 40 million-45 million of those get produced in the region, with another, say, 165 million usually flowing in from Midwest refineries. That leaves a gap of at least 65 million barrels; maybe as many as 85 million if intrastate flows are low like last winter.

About 106 million barrels are stockpiled in the US, with about 25 million of those on the East Coast and another 66 million in the Midwest. Last winter, the East Coast also imported 62 million barrels.

So the math certainly is challenging but, in strictly domestic terms, not insurmountable. After all, US distillate production has outpaced demand by roughly 1 million barrels a day, on average, for a decade.

The big problem is logistical: the Northeast’s heavy dependence on barrels from other states and from across the Atlantic, leaving it prone to squeezes. In bidding for cargoes, it is hampered by the Jones Act, making state-to-state shipments from the Gulf Coast costly. Waivers or — keep dreaming — repeal would help enormously.

The other intervention the White House has actually talked about, however, is restricting product exports. As a further impediment to flows, this would be misguided. It also would prompt more backlash from the oil industry and potentially harm European allies on the front line of Russia’s energy war. Even so, President Joe Biden may now be feeling emboldened enough to act anyway.                                --Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion