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Saturday, October 22, 2022

Autumn Reading Program — October 22, 2022

Autumn reading program, adding: Bridge to the Sun: The Secret Role of the Japanese Americans Who Fought in the Pacific in World War II, Deckle Edge, September 27, 2022.

The fact that my wife’s mother was Japanese played a major role in my decision to order this book. 

Show Me The Outlier -- October 22, 2022

Tyler: link here.

One thing about Tyler: he's confused.

Motley Fool: link here.

  • The drugs (2018 prices):
    • Xofigo, prostate cancer, Bayer: $12,657 / month:
    • Cyramza, non-small cell lung cancer, Eli Liilly, $13,256 / month
    • Zykadia, late-stage non-small cell lung cancer, Novartis, $13,672 / month
    • Lenvima, thyroid cancer, Esaly, $13,945 / month
    • Blincyto, acute lymphoblastic leukemia, Amgen, $64,260 / month

The following vaccines (and many, many more) were provided to all (military) active duty members and their families entirely free

Talk to Mira: link here.

  • HPV, adolescent female, prevents all cervical cancer; $196.32
  • MENB, all teenagers, meningitis, $119.93
  • MENB, ditto, $128.60
  • MMR/Varicella: all children, $144.63
  • Pneumococcal: all adults, !50.83
  • Rotavirus: infants, 6-months old: $74.73
  • Rotavirus, ditto: $99.44
  • Varicella: everyone, $115.77
  • Covid-19, everyone: $100
  • show me the outlier

CDC: link here. Pediatric price list, current:

  • dengue: $99
  • DTaP-Heb B-IPV: $90.04
  • DTaP-IPV-HIB-HEPB: $139.82
  • hepatitis A - hepatitis B 18: $116.79
  • HPV -- human papillomavirus 9-valent $268.77
  • MENB: $168.15
  • MENB: $201.30
  • MMR/Varicella: $262.37
  • Pneumococcal: $226.43
  • Varicella: $159.99
  • Covid-19: $100
  • show me the outlier

Gardasil: link here. Perhaps the best "new" vaccine ever. More on this one later.

Ticker PFE: link here.

  • p/e: 8.8
  • yield: 3.6%

Ticker MRNA: link here.

  • p/e: 3.9
  • yield: -- 

Comment:

  • PFE has made their money on their Covid-19 vaccine
  • PFE won't make money on their Covid-19 vaccine going forward
  • their break-even cost is well above $125, and they will market it between $100 and $130

For investors:

  • my current "new-money" allocation, on a twice-a-month schedule:
    • 50 - 30 - 20
    • 50%: Buffett-approved Blue Chip, value stocks
    • 30%: semi-conductor, tech
    • 20%: fossil fuel energy (oil)
  • with the new data, for the next few months:
    • 40: Buffett-approved Blue Chip, value stocks
    • 30%: semi-conductor, tech
    • 20%: fossil fuel energy (oil)
    • 10%: mRNA


 Semis
: we're not talking about trucks. LOL.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

***********************
Gardasil

Link here.

The vaccine was approved for medical use in the United States in 2006, initially for use in females aged 9–26. 
In 2007, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended Gardasil for routine vaccination of girls aged 11 and 12 years. 
As of August 2009, vaccination was recommended for both males and females before adolescence and the beginning of potential sexual activity.

By 2011, the vaccine had been approved in 120 other countries.

Would you -- I'm asking the women -- take a vaccine with no side effects, cost-free, and prevents breast cancer completely? 

In 2007, or thereabouts, I briefed the spouses (mostly women) of the leadership staff at the Air Intelligence Agency (think NSA, CIA, FBI rolled into one) on newly-released Gardisal.

The vaccine was approved for women aged 9 to 26 years of age. It would be provided by the military for free. It had zero -- zip, nada, zilch -- side effects. It would prevent all cervical cancer. It was the perfect vaccine and it was free.

I briefed the women. There were about sixteen in attendance.

The vaccine would be given to their daughters if they consented.

Pretty much across the board, all sixteen women said, "No, I won't give that to my daughter."

That's  about the time I said, "Enough is enough."

I was more than ready for retirement.

A Follow-Up To A Reader's Inquiry Regarding EOG In The Bakken -- October 22, 2022

Note: there may be typographical and content errors. I have been known to make huge errors on reading the NDIC map. Read at your own risk.

In early October, a reader asked about EOG in the Bakken

This past week the November, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets were posted. The following is a case, not a permit:

Wells of interest:

  • 17485, 749, EOG, Burke 19-28H, Parshall, t7/09; cum 318K 8/22;
  • 18366, 1,497, EOG, Burke 29-33H, Parshall, t6/10; cum 277K 8/22;
  • 17068, 1,206, EOG, Burke 1-34H, Parshall, t11/08; cum 406K 8/22;
  • 16768, 1,441, EOG, Austin 2-03H, Parshall, t12/07; cum 694K 8/22;
  • 17075, 2,310, EOG, Austin 9-11H, Parshall, t6/08; cum 827K 8/22;
  • 32720, 2,086, EOG, Austin 45-1113H, Parshall, t8/18; cum 323K 8/22;
  • 32719, 1,868, EOG, Austin 46-1113H, Parshall, t9/18; cum 173K 8/22;
  • 32718, 1,667, EOG, Austin 465-1113H, Parshall, t9/18; cum 232K 8/22;

Miscellaneous notes:

  • it was my understanding that EOG was pretty much "done" with the Bakken and, instead, concentrating on the Permain; to see EOG back in the Bakken is amazing;
  • this is quite surprising -- to see EOG back in the Bakken ....
  • note the chronological numbers in bold above -- we've talked about this before
  • tell me that EOG is not unitizing the Parshall by telling me EOG is not unitizing the Parshall
  • when I see this "activity" and the production data from these "early" wells, I am more convinced than ever that Leigh Price was right;
  • one wonders whether EOG geologists are re-reading the Leigh Price paper that was never formally published

The Book Page -- My Autumn Reading Program -- Update -- Octoober 22, 2022

My summer reading program

My autumn reading program has begun.

  • The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America, Peeter Zeihan, 2017.
  • Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, Daviid Quammen, 2022.
  • The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race, Walter Isaacson, March 9, 2021
  • Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story, Jeremy Farrar, Anjana Ahuja, July 22, 2021
  • Like a Rolling Stone: A Memoir, Jann S Wenner, September 13, 2022
  • The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, Peter Frankopan, March 7, 2017
  • Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones, James Clear, October 16, 2018

I'm currently reading the Jann Wenner memoir. Reading it slowly. Savoring it. Incredible book. This is now the third book I've read in the last six months that covers the 60s so well:

  • Like a Rolling Stone: A Memoir, Jann S Wenner, September 13, 2022
  • A Song For Everyone: The Story of Creedence Clearwater Revival, John Lingan, c. 2022;
  • Everybody Thought We Were Crazy: Dennis Hopper, Brooke Hayward and 1960s Los Angeles, Mark Rozzo, c. 2022

Of the three, the John Lingan's book was least enjoyable to read but great, great story of CCR. 

Jann Wenner, by far, is the best of the three. 

To complement these three books with regard to the 60s, two documentaries:

  • American Playboy: The Hugh Hefner Story, an Amazon original, 2017;
  • The Sound of 007, an Amazon original, 2022.

The Exercise Page, Part 2 -- October 22, 2022

See "the exercise page." 

They've just finished a complete renovation of our fitness center in the apartment complex, all new equipment. It is amazing. One now sees the problem "Peloton" had as a business model: no moat. We have two "pelotons" in the new fitness center but the brand? Echelon. Yup. 

Echelon Connect bikes with world-class instructors.

  • starting at $899
  • Peleton? starting at $2,500. 

During the couple of weeks that the apartment complex fitness center was closed for renovation, I had to change my exercise routine a bit, more walking and more biking. 

See the link above.

#2: hitting 10,000 steps a day is the most underutilized yet effective fat loss habit;
#11: get 15+ minutes of sunlight in the first hour of waking to seet your circadian rhythm;
#32: you don't have to eat breakfast; listen to your body; eat when you're hungry;
#35: sunshine is the #1 supplement to better sleep, mood, energy.

Because I did not have the treadmill, I began walking instead. I hate to exercise just to exercise; I have to have a destination. So, I went back to a place I never thought I would visit again (on a regular basis): Starbucks.

First thing when I get up, I now walk to a Starbucks, fifteen minutes away, do some reading and blogging, and then walk home in the sun (#2, #11, #32, #35 above). 

By the time I get home I'm hungry for a small bowl of oatmeal and then on my 80-minute "hard-exercise" bike ride. If I'm lazy and want to enjoy the ride, it's a 90-minute ride; if I want to see how fast I can make the round trip and with a good win, I can do the route in less than an hour.

They're going to need a larger Starbucks. This Starbucks is the standard medium-to-large seating area. Today, it was hard to find a seat, and the drive-through had a line of six cars.

The thing I miss most now that weather has turned cooler: swimming. The last two days the weather has been very warm, yesterday, hitting 90° -- but because it gets so cool/cold at night, the pool water remains very cool/cold. But yesterday, just to say I did it, I swam twelve laps. During the summer I often swam 20 laps, sometimes 30 - 40 laps, but never fewer than ten laps. Yesterday, I swan twelve laps. It really was great, I would have stayed in long but it gets "lonely." Boring.