The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/21/22

Friday, October 21, 2022

Covid-19, "Seasonal Flu," A New Season And New Vaccines -- October 21, 2022

For background, see these two posts:

The weekly US influenza surveillance report, October 21, 2022, has just been released.

I wonder if anyone is paying attention.

This is only October. Height of "seasonal flu" season is January, February time frame, and already:

And, then, look at this, the graph below: this is the percentage of outpatient visits for all respiratory illnesses for all seasons beginning with the 2017 - 2018 season, through the Covid-19 seasons (2019 - 2020, 2020 - 2021) and including the 2022 - 2023 season.

The "season" begins with "week 40," far left of the graph.

The current season, at 3%, is three times higher than the 2021 - 2022 season, one year ago, same point in time. And, the current season is the "worst," by far of all six seasons.

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"Seasonal" Flu

Viruses come in two different flavors: DNA and RNA.

RNA is, by far, much worse than DNA viruses.

Bad news: both Covid-19 and "seasonal flu" viruses are RNA viruses.

The "seasonal flu" vaccines use old technology and fall short of what is needed.

But good news: both Moderna and Pfizer are in Phase 3 stage trials for mRNA vaccines for "seasonal flu." It takes upwards of eight months to develop a "seasonal flu" vaccine; it is hoped that mRNA vaccine technology will be much faster.

CLR With Ten New Permits; BR Renews 22 Permits; Natural Gas Drops Below $5 -- October 21, 2022

Quite stunning: I hope everyone is paying attention. CLR with ten new permits and BR renews 22 permits. They are anticipating the end of SPR releases, and the beginning of driving season next summer, 2023.

Active wells: 44.

WTI: $85.05.

Natural gas: $4.959.

Eleven new permits, #39328 - #39338, inclusive:

Operators: CLR (10): Petro-Hunt
Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Charbonneau (McKenzie)
Comments:

CLR: see this note;
Petro-Hunt has a permit for a Mongoose well in Charbonneau field, SESW 8-149-102;

to be sited 249 FSL and 1615 FWL

Twenty-six permits renewed:

BR (22):

eight Parrish permits, McKenzie County;
eight Boxer permits, McKenzie County;
two Rink permits, McKenzie County;
two Boxstone permits, McKenzie County;
two Kermit permits, McKenzie

EOG (2): two Mont permits in Williams County, section 34-155-102;
Iron Oil Operating (2): two Buffalo permits in McKenzie County;

CLR: Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead -- October 21, 2022

In today's daily activity report, CLR with ten new permits, #39328 - #39337, inclusive:

39328, conf, CLR, Arthur 6-12H, Little Knife,
39329, conf, CLR, Arthur 7-12H1, Little Knife,
39330, conf, CLR, Arthur 8-12H, Little Knife,
39331, conf, CLR, Arthur 9-12H1, Little Knife,
39332, conf, CLR, Arthur 10-12H, Little Knife,
39333, conf, CLR, Hegler 6-13H, Little Knife,
39334, conf, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1, Little Knife,
39335, conf, CLR, Hegler 8-13H, Little Knife,
39336, conf, CLR, Hegler 9-13H1, Little Knife,
39337, conf, CLR, Hegler 10-13H, Little Knife,

The wells, location:

Hegler wells, SWSE 12-146-97; to be sited 323 FSL and between 2626 FWL and 2453 FWL
Arthur wells, SESW 12-146-97; to be sited 324 FSL and between 2401 FWL and 2581 FWL;

The graphics, pending

Existing wells:

18748, 718, CLR, Arthur 2-12H, Little Knife, t9/10; cum 241K 8/22;
18747, 689, CLR, Hegler 2-13H, Little Knife, t9/110; cum 261K 8/22;
18513, 714, CLR, Arthur 1-12H, Little Knife, t9/10; cum 149K 8/22;
18515, 418, CLR, Hegler 1-13H, Little Knife, t9/110; cum 149K 8/22;

It's going to be so much fun to see the daughter cells be much greater wells than the parent wells, something the "experts" say is not supposed to happen. The big question: will we see the halo effect?

Week 42: October 16, 2022 -- October 22, 2022.

Top story:

Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

Ukraine war drags on; ninth month.

Top international energy story:

Top national energy story:

Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

KAG -- Natural Gas -- October 21, 2022

Link here.

There Are So Many Story Lines Here -- October 21, 2022

Link here.

See if you can come up with the biggest story line.

Most Anticipated Earnings Story Of The Day -- SLB -- 3Q22 -- Another Company That Refused To Accept The Mainstream Media's "Woe Is Me"

SLB won't likely raise its dividend this go-around.

Just the graphics:

Did any of your wind / solar / renewable energy utility investments do this for you?

Legacy Fund Deposits For October, 2022

Link here. Legacy fund deposits for October, 2022, posted today.

Another Biden Win? Budget Defiicit Cut In Half -- Despite Aid To Ukraine? October 21, 2022

Link here.

So Much More To Post -- But Going Walking And Then Biking -- October 21, 2022

Link here.

Devon, link here:

Anticipation:

Covid-19 -- The Leading Cause Of Death Last Year Those Aged 45 - 54 Years -- October 21, 2022

Wuhan flu. The blog. Coronavirus: statistics. Seasonal flu: CDC.

The book page: I can't stress enough, that if you are serious "about" learning about Covid-19, you will start a Covid-19 library, perhaps starting with;

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022.

Updates

Later, 9:29 p.m. CT: see weekly report, just released.

Original Post

Re-posting.

I am absolutely convinced that the vast majority of Americans have never seen this graph. For those that have seen it, most have ignored it or have not studied it. Link here. It would be interesting to see a similar graphic in 1922 regarding the Spanish flu pandemic.

From 2017:

Now, from March, 2020 - October, 2021, from JAMA, July 5, 2022:

From March 2020 to October 2021, COVID-19 accounted for 1 in 8 deaths in the US and was a top 5 cause of death in every age group aged 15 years and older.

Cancer and heart disease deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths overall and in most age groups, whereas accidents were the leading cause of death among those aged 1 to 44 years.

Compared with the 2020 time period, deaths from COVID-19 in the 2021 time period decreased in ranking among those aged 85 years or older but increased in ranking among those aged 15 to 54 years, and became the leading cause of death among those aged 45 to 54 years.

The increased ranking of COVID-19 as a leading cause of death in some age groups is consistent with a downward age shift in the distribution of COVID-19 deaths in the US in 2021 compared with 2020, perhaps driven by higher COVID-19 vaccination rates in 2021 in the oldest age groups.

The pandemic also has had indirect effects on other causes of death in the US. From 2019 to 2020, death rates increased for heart disease, accidents, stroke, Alzheimer disease, and diabetes.

Potential explanations are fear of accessing health care or misattribution of COVID-19 deaths to other causes.

Accidental deaths (including drug overdoses and unintentional alcohol poisoning), assault, and suicide remain major causes of death in the US, particularly in younger age groups; the pandemic may have contributed to some of these deaths.

In summary:

Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death among those aged 45 t0 54 years;
during the worst months of the pandemic,

COVID-19 accounted for 1 in 8 deaths in the US; and,w
as a top 5 cause of death in every age group aged 15 years and older

Other:

if one eliminates heart disease and cancer, Covid-19 may be the leading cause of death in those older than 54 years of age;
heart disease is, to a great extent, preventable, and treatable;
the major causes of cancer can be prevented, and/or diagnosed earlier, improving survival rate: lung, colon, breast
mRNA vaccine research from the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to huge advances in cancer therapy

Pfizer -- An Open-Book Test For Investors -- October 21, 2022

Updates

October 24, 2022: These are going to get tedious. Link here. For a vaccine "no one" wants, they sure are upset about the price. LOL. It won't cost you a penny if you don't "take it."

Original Post

Covid-19.

This popped up yesterday in social media:

Pfizer today:

********************
US Public Education

From 2017:

Now, from March, 2020 - October, 2021, from JAMA, July 5, 2022:

From March 2020 to October 2021, COVID-19 accounted for 1 in 8 deaths in the US and was a top 5 cause of death in every age group aged 15 years and older.

Cancer and heart disease deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths overall and in most age groups, whereas accidents were the leading cause of death among those aged 1 to 44 years.

Compared with the 2020 time period, deaths from COVID-19 in the 2021 time period decreased in ranking among those aged 85 years or older but increased in ranking among those aged 15 to 54 years, and became the leading cause of death among those aged 45 to 54 years.

The increased ranking of COVID-19 as a leading cause of death in some age groups is consistent with a downward age shift in the distribution of COVID-19 deaths in the US in 2021 compared with 2020, perhaps driven by higher COVID-19 vaccination rates in 2021 in the oldest age groups.

The pandemic also has had indirect effects on other causes of death in the US. From 2019 to 2020, death rates increased for heart disease, accidents, stroke, Alzheimer disease, and diabetes.

Potential explanations are fear of accessing health care or misattribution of COVID-19 deaths to other causes.

Accidental deaths (including drug overdoses and unintentional alcohol poisoning), assault, and suicide remain major causes of death in the US, particularly in younger age groups; the pandemic may have contributed to some of these deaths.

In summary:

Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death among those aged 45 t0 54 years;
during the worst months of the pandemic,

COVID-19 accounted for 1 in 8 deaths in the US; and,w
as a top 5 cause of death in every age group aged 15 years and older

Other:

if one eliminates heart disease and cancer, Covid-19 may be the leading cause of death in those older than 54 years of age;
heart disease is, to a great extent, preventable, and treatable;
the major causes of cancer can be prevented, and/or diagnosed earlier, improving survival rate: lung, colon, breast
mRNA vaccine research from the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to huge advances in cancer therapy

A Closer Look At The Three Iron Oil Operating Cases From The November, 2022, NDIC Hearing Dockets -- October 21, 2022

What's Iron Oil Operating up to in the Bakken?

From the November, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets, Iron Oil with three cases (again, these are cases, not permits):

case #29691

create and establish four overlapping 1920-acre spacing units in Little Tank and Bear Butte oil fields:

sections 1/12/13 - 148 - 102
sections 2/11/14 - 148 - 102
sections 5/8/17 - 148 - 101
sections 6/7/18 - 148 - 101

the active well in this area:

26707, 658, Iron Oil Operating, Bowline 1-2-11H, Little Tank, t5/14; cum 169K 8/22;

case #29692:

create and establish an overlapping 1920-acre spacing unit in the Bully oil field:

sections 4/9/16 - 148 - 100

the active well in this area:

22571, 287, Iron Oil Operating, Bear Butte 1-4-9H, Bear Butte, t9/12; cum 118K 8/22;

case #29693

create and establish two overlapping 1920-acre spacing units in the Bear Butte and/or Red Wing Creek oil field:

sections 1/12/13 - 148 - 101
sections 2/11/14 - 148 - 101

the two active wells in this aea:

23170, 322, Iron Oil Operating, Bear Butte 1-11-2H, Bear Butte, t12/12; cum 143K 8/22;
26637, 354, Iron Oil Operating, Bear Butte 1-12-1H, Bear Butte, t1/14; cum 165K 8/22;

Note: there are likely to be typographical and content errors in this note.

TGIF -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 21, 2022

Finally, someone gets it. The most recent announcement -- it was planned from the very beginning, six months ago.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $84.63.

Natural gas: $5.048.

Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,

Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
None.

Monday, October 24, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
None.

Sunday, October 23, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA,

Saturday, October 22, 2022: 29 for the month, 29 for the quarter, 474 for the year.
38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H,
38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB,
38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX,

Friday, October 21, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 471 for the year.
38603, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HW,

RBN Energy: lessons from the RINs price spike of 2013 and why they still apply.

Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are credits used to certify compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which requires certain minimum volumes of biofuels to be blended into fuels sold in the U.S. There are many types of fuels covered by the RFS and so RIN credits come in different categories. One category, the D6 RIN, applies to the blending of corn-based ethanol into refined gasoline to make the gasoline-ethanol blends we pump into our cars, SUVs and pickups. In 2013, the D6 RIN price skyrocketed 100-fold in one of the most extreme cases of panic buying in any major commodity market in history. In today’s RBN blog, we examine that event and address three key questions: How did it happen, what was the solution, and why does it matter today?

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Friday, October 21, 2022