McDonalds’s with huge increase in quarterly dividend, from $1.38 to $1.52, record date, December 1, 2022; payable, December 15, 2022.
I think there’s a bigger story here than folks realize.
Saturday, October 15, 2022
Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2022
The wells:
- 38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H, Rattlesnake Point, no production data,
- 38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA, Mandaree, no production data,
- 38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H, Rattlesnake Point, no production data,
- 38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB, Mandaree, no production data,
- 38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX, Mandaree, no production data,
- 38603, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HW, Mandaree, no production data,
- 38858, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HIL, Mandaree, no production data,
- 38365, conf, CLR, Fuller 5-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
- 38849, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR, Siverston, no production data,
- 38366, conf, CLR, Fuller 4-2H1, Little Knife, no production data,
Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 15, 2022
Wednesday, October 26, 2022: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 477 for the year.
38783, conf, CLR, Bonneville 8-23H,
Tuesday, October 25, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.
Monday, October 24, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
None.
Sunday, October 23, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 476 for the year.
38602, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HA,
Saturday, October 22, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 475 for the year.
38784, conf, CLR, Bonneville 9-23H,
38736, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HB,
38604, conf, WPX. Samuel Packineau 8HX,
Friday, October 21, 2022: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 472 for the year.
38603, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HW,
Thursday, October 20, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 471 for the year.
38858, conf, WPX, Samuel Packineau 8HIL,
Wednesday, October 19, 2022: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 470 for the year.
38365, conf, CLR, Fuller 5-2H,
Tuesday, October 18, 2022: 24 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 469 for the year.
38849, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5HR,
38366, conf, CLR, Fuller 4-2H1,
Monday, October 17, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None
Sunday, October 16, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None
Saturday, October 15, 2022: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 467 for the year.
None
Top Story Of The Week -- October 15, 2022
Updates
Later, 10:36 p.m. CT: the poll is out.
- Tennessee jumped to #3;
- Alabama dropped to #6.
- USC dropped from #6 to #12 after a one-point loss to Utah.
- Utah jumped from #20 to #15 after that one-point win over USC.
Original Post
How far will Alabama fall in the ratings? The AP poll will be released tomorrow, Sunday, October 16, 2022, about noon.
Preliminary Discussion -- Crescent Point, Three-Mile Laterals -- October 15, 2022
I've delayed getting into this one because I don't have a lot to offer yet. Perhaps readers may know more.
A long-time reader sent me this query:
Can you do a report on the 3rd level oil reserves in ND?
Interests: 158-101(KODA) and 159-101 (Crescent Point)
Crescent Point told reader they would be doing three-mile-long laterals in the "third level oil reserves."
- they say it’s more economical and the NDIC wants companies to drill longer laterals.
- what do you know about this? Does it really payoff in the long run? How much more does it cost to run an extra 1mile horizontal leg?
- I did notice that Crescent point did a pooling interest in almost all of 158 -101.
It seems they are trying to create 3-mile-horizontal drilling units / 3-mile-long horizontals
What do you know about KODA?
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Preliminary Thoughts
Crescent Point view, February 21, 2020: link here.
Crescent Point, 2Q22, results, link here. And, here.
Crescent Point, 2Q22, results, corporate presentation.
- unfortunately, over the years, with regard to the Bakken boom, corporate presentations (all operators) have trended toward less operational information and more financial information
1. Yes, it is accurate that the NDIC is pushing for longer laterals, specifically, three-mile long / three-section laterals.
- at the beginning of the boom, the standard quickly became two-mile laterals
- time was of the essence at the beginning of the boom; time more important money
- longer laterals: took more time; NDIC had not approved longer drilling units; subject to increased risk of falling short of planned TD
- it took upwards of 60 days to drill a two-mile horizontal; now they're drilling the horizontal portion in less than six days; not that much longer to drill an extra mile
- Crescent Point says they averaged 14 days/well on a recently completed pad; seems a bit long;
2. The cost:
- the big cost is now fracking, not drilling
- drilling: day rates on rigs; time to drill
- fracking: hard to find frack spreads; sand is very expensive; worse: transportation costs are surging -- diesel now trending towards $5 / gallon or more
- if current wells are costing $6 million, could three-mile-laterals cost $9 million
3. Crescent Point is one of the handful of Bakken operators still drilling
4. "Third level oil reserves": I assume Crescent Point meant "Tier 3" (economical/financial term) and not formation (first level: middle Bakken; second level: Three Forks, first bench; third level: Three Forks, second level), but I could be wrong.
5. I will start watching Crescent Point more closely:
- permits
- planned TD (two-mile vs three-mile)
- quarterly reports for well costs
6. KODA
- I can find very, very little on KODA.
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read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
CDC Flu Update -- October 15, 2022
The Book Page
I'm starting to put together a Covid-19 library.
First three books:
- Breathless: The Scientific Race To Defeat A Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022
- The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race, Walter Isaacson, March 9, 2021
- Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story, Jeremy Farrar, Anjana Ahuja, July 22, 2021
From The [London] Guardian: link here.
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Autumn Reading Program
To date, the Autumn Reading Program, 2022:
- Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, Daviid Quammen, 2022.
- The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race, Walter Isaacson, March 9, 2021
- Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story, Jeremy Farrar, Anjana Ahuja, July 22, 2021
- Like a Rolling Stone: A Memoir, Jann S Wenner, September 13, 2022
- The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, Peter Frankopan, March 7, 2017
- Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones, James Clear, October 16, 2018
*****************************
CDC Flu Update
How many errors can you spot? I see three:
**************************
Watching Their Big Screen Monitors
I guess this is what happens when the "screen freezes" or on has really, really slow streaming.
Diesel Is The Real Problem -- Diesel Moves America -- October 15, 2022
Diesel costs will impact every product sold in America.
Ninety-nine percent of Americans do not worry about the price of diesel because they don't buy it (needs to be fact-checked).
Did anyone notice that US refiners are now operating below 90% of their capacity? Link here.
- U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending October 7, 2022
- 279,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average
- refineries operated at 89.9% of their operable capacity last week.
- gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day;
- distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day
Diesel: the real concern has moved from gasoline to diesel
- if one wants to see why diesel fuel is now the real concern, not gasoline, drive I-40 from Memphis to Nashville
- from this week's EIA weekly petroleum report
- distillate fuel inventories decreased by a whopping 4.9 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
- propane is in good shape:
- propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.
The "numbers" this week were absolutely stunning.
Gasoline Demand -- October 15, 2022
Gasoline demand, link here.
Some say there may have been come EIA manipulating of the graph earlier this summer, and I did not argue against that. Regardless of what may or may not have happened during the summer, I am now confident that the graph is accurate to thee extent that such data is ever accurate.
Four things:
- the price of gasoline is trending higher again, and folks know how to conserve gasoline if they need to;
- the Florida hurricane
- driving season is way over
- cars really are getting great mileage
EVs are not the reason.
Before we get to the graph, did anyone notice that US refiners are now operating below 90% of their capacity?
Look at the weekly drop, astonishing, in million bpd:
- 9/23/22: 8.825
- 9/30/22: 9.465
- 10/7/22: 8.276 -- a 13% drop in gasoline demand week-over-week
Inflation, for the individual,
- the cost per gallon has increased significantly, but
- the overall amount being spent on gasoline may be decreasing?
- that's certainly true for some of us
- I was quite surprised how little I actually paid for gasoline from DFW to Nashville driving a Enterprise rental Hyundai Kona.
- if one wants to see why diesel fuel is now the real concern, not gasoline, drive I-40 from Memphis to Nashville
- from this week's EIA weekly petroleum report
- distillate fuel inventories decreased by a whopping 4.9 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
- propane is in good shape:
- propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.
The "numbers" this week were absolutely stunning.
