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Saturday, October 15, 2022

Gasoline Demand -- October 15, 2022

Gasoline demand, link here.

Some say there may have been come EIA manipulating of the graph earlier this summer, and I did not argue against that. Regardless of what may or may not have happened during the summer, I am now confident that the graph is accurate to thee extent that such data is ever accurate.

Four things:

  • the price of gasoline is trending higher again, and folks know how to conserve gasoline if they need to;
  • the Florida hurricane
  • driving season is way over
  • cars really are getting great mileage

EVs are not the reason. 

Before we get to the graph, did anyone notice that US refiners are now operating below 90% of their capacity?

Look at the weekly drop, astonishing, in million bpd:

  • 9/23/22: 8.825
  • 9/30/22: 9.465
  • 10/7/22: 8.276 -- a 13% drop in gasoline demand week-over-week

Inflation, for the individual,
  • the cost per gallon has increased significantly, but
  • the overall amount being spent on gasoline may be decreasing?
  • that's certainly true for some of us 
  • I was quite surprised how little I actually paid for gasoline from DFW to Nashville driving a Enterprise rental Hyundai Kona.
Diesel: the real concern has moved from gasoline to diesel
  • if one wants to see why diesel fuel is now the real concern, not gasoline, drive I-40 from Memphis to Nashville
  • from this week's EIA weekly petroleum report
    • distillate fuel inventories decreased by a whopping 4.9 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
  • propane is in good shape:
    • propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.

The "numbers" this week were absolutely stunning.

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