Judith Durham: July 3, 1943 - August 5, 2022.
This, 2017, must have been a very, very bittersweet moment for all.
Only 79 years old.
Friday, October 7, 2022
Breaking -- Rivian -- Really Breaking -- October 7, 2022
Can you imagine if the headline ran: "GM recalling all of its vehicles"?
In my daily bike rides of about ten miles, I see, for every 100 vehicles (pickups and cars):
- two Teslas (we are ground zero for Tesla in this area)
- eight Porsches
- twenty Mercedes
- everything else
I saw my first Rivian "in the wild this week." A mom was picking up her child from daycare. Yeah, this is a high-rent neighborhood. The Rivian looked awesome but for $100,000, it should. Too bad it's being recalled. Hopefully, they got home safely.
It Looks Like Flu Season Is Arriving Early This Year -- October 7, 2022
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Breathless
Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022.
Read the first chapter.
Puts things into perspective.
Downright scary.
Hindsight is 20/20. In real time, absolutely scary.
Very likely decisions made in 2003 (President Bush II) connect with outbreak in 2019/2020. What was Tony Fauci doing in 2003?
The Florida surgeon general is certainly doing a disservice for his/her 70+ population. I'm not impressed.
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Finally Found The Cause
Thirty or forty years ago there were many stories of healthy male athletes in their teens and twenties -- apparently healthy -- collapsing on the field and dying without explanation. These stories made the news even without help of social media, the internet, and high school graduates who had become experts in virology.
Finally, we now know: the mRNA vaccines for Covid-19.
With Gasoline At $8 Per Gallon In California, How In The World Did Biden Get Us Into A Fight With OPEC+? October 7, 2022
This is not the big story, but it is part of the big story.
The big story: how in the world did Biden get us (US) into a fight with Saudi Arabia?
Several months ago I mentioned that there were two "wings" in the West Wing:
- the idealists: the far left, Bernie Sanders / John Kerry liberals, green wing; and,
- the pragmatists: the less far left, liberal, political, pragmatic wing.
The idealists don't care about politics, winning elections; they will leave that up to the other, pragmatic, political wing.
The two wings are running rings around the president. He doesn't have time for the far left liberals so they are setting the agenda. He's only interested in politics, winning the mid-terms.
Unfortunately, while listening to the political wing which led to the SPR release, the far left wing set him up for failure, setting the stage for a fight with OPEC (which the US cannot win).
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Follow The Science
Modified Mediterranean Diet -- Friday -- Fish Day -- October 7, 2022
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Up-To-Date
My second Covid-19 booster:
- I always get the Pfizer vaccine
- "no one" has Moderna right now;
- not enough Moderna was made -- can you believe that?
- hunch: more folks are being immunized than Trump supporters would like to believe
- huge numbers of folks are still dying each month from Covid-19 worldwide
- most experts agree: vaccines are making a difference; the other measures? Probably not so much;
- mRNA
- Omicron
- good for six months
- you have no idea how good I feel (emotionally) after getting my Covid-19 shots
- I still wear a mask but not as often as I used to
- at my neighborhood Target, I estimate 1 out of 20 shoppers wear a mask; almost no Target employees wear a mask
Ranked by new deaths, daily, link here:
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Reunion
I did not know about this reunion in San Antonio. I flew with the 36 TFW, Bitburg Air Base, Germany for seven years -- two different assignments. Best years of my life.
At the time I was assigned, three F-15 squadrons:
- the 22 TFS: the Stingers (my squadron)
- the 53 TFS: the (NATO) Tigers
- the 525 TFS: the Bulldogs
If I had to "assign" a personality to each squadron:
- the 22 TFS: Dallas Cowboys
- the 53 TFS: New England Patriots (with Tom Brady)
- the 525 TFS: the Oakland Raiders
Week 40: October 2, 2022 -- October 8, 2022.
Top story:
- Joe Biden picks fight with Saudi Arabia
- OPEC+ announces a cut of 2 million bopd
- Biden responds with another 10-million-bbl draw from the SPR
- Congress moves to enact "NOPEC" law
- Joe Biden is still president
- Fed won't pivot: unemployment rate plunges
- Hurricane Ian: already forgotten by mainstream media
Top international non-energy story:
- Ukraine war drags on: Ukraine is destroying the Russian army;
- nuclear threat hangs over Europe
- if Russia didn't have nuclear weapons, this war would be over
Top international energy story:
- OPEC+ announces a cut of 2 million bopd
Top national energy story:
- WTI surges to $92 on news that Biden picks fight with Saudi Arabia
Javier Blas:
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:
Entertainment:
- Indianapolis Colts defeat the Denver Broncos in one of the "worst" NFL games ever;
Russia's Soaring Defense Spending Is Unsustainable -- Contributor To Oilprice -- October 7, 2022
Link here.
Since May 2022, the Russian government has not released much data on the defense budget.
Nevertheless, defense spending from January to April totaled almost $26.4 billion, with about 5$8.3 billion of spending per month for March and April. Considering these dynamics in comparison with Moscow’s defense spending in previous years—roughly $5 billion per month—and the fact that the original defense budget in 2022 was 3.85 trillion rubles ($63.6 billion), the true amount for Russian defense spending in 2022 may well reach as much as $90.9 billion by the end of the year.
This estimation correlates with two key facts. First, in June 2022, the additional planned spending for arms manufacturing was officially estimated at $9.9 billion–$11.6 billion.
Second, after revising it in September 2022, the estimate for the entire Russian defense budget in 2022 was adjusted to $77.7 billion, and this change will definitely not be the last.
In this way, defense spending itself is throwing the Russian state budget out of balance. And this spending does not include funding for security and law enforcement agencies, such as Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) and the Russian Federal Security Service, which are also involved in the war against Ukraine.
Originally, the 2022 budget for security and law enforcement organizations was set at $46.3 billion, but evidence shows that the plan has been significantly changed a number of times since then.
The turbulence in Russian defense spending will probably increase in 2023.
The budget proposal for 2023 considers almost $82.6 billion for defense and $69.4 billion for security and law enforcement, up from the previously planned $59.5 billion and $47.9 billion, respectively.
However, the ongoing mobilization casts doubt on this plan from the outset, as clear parameters for this process have not been delineated, and it is already carrying on in quite a chaotic manner. In this way, if the war continues into 2022, then Russian defense spending will most likely be significantly higher than $82.6 billion.
Slawson With Two New Permits -- October 7, 2022
Yellen vs Powell:
- link here;
- SecTreasury has to find the trillion dollars to for the Fed's actions
- Powell: a fist pump;
- Yellen: a scowl, and looking forward to retirement;
Germany, Peter Zeihan: the real story is that retail sales in the US (black line) have soared and are staying at historic records. Not only did retail sales collapse in Germany, but after a brief recovery, have slumped again (the blue line), link here:
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 44
WTI: $92.64. Up 4.74%; up 44.19; closed at $92.64.
Natural gas: $6.748. Down 3%.
Two new permits, #39297 - #39298, inclusive:
- Operator: Slawson
- Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
- Comments:
- Slawson has permits for a Hunter Federal well and a Jericho well, SESE 6-151-92,
- one will be sited 609 FSL and 420 FEL; the other 559 FSL and 420 FEL.
Twelve permits renewed:
- Slawson (6): three Loon Federal permits; two Genekat Federal permits, and one Genesis permit, all in Mountrail County
- BR (4): four Carlsbad permits in McKenzie County;
- Bowline: one Novak permit in McKenzie County;
- Grayson Mill: one Tufto permit in Williams County;
Seven permits canceled:
- MRO: the following permits all in Dunn County -- Anseth, Basham, Bergelie, Quam, Sahaydek, Calvin, and Arnew;
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 38608, 1,658, CLR, Bang 11-4H1,
- 38696, 489, Lime Rock Resources, Harstad 9-1TFH-155-91;
WTI: My Age Plus 20 -- October 2022
Updates
Later: 10:58 a.m. CT.
- $92.33.
Later: 10:09 a.m.
CT.
- WTI now trading at $91.41.
Later: 10:05 a.m. CT. Does this look like a UN worried about global warming? Sorry, Greta. Link here:
Joe Biden: released oil from the SPR with eyes on the midterm elections.
OPEC+: cut production to keep something in reserve if needed. Spare capacity is a "thing."
Original Post
Biden: "NOPEC."
Prince MBS: "NO-OIL."
Californians: "OH-SH*T."
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The Book Page
Word for the day: pangolin.
"NOPEC" -- "NO-OIL" -- October 7, 2022
How in the world did Joe Biden get us into a fight with Saudi Arabia? With California dependent on Saudi oil and Californians paying $8 / gallon of gasoline. Holy mackerel!
US: votes "NOPEC."
Saudi Arabia: responds with "NO-OIL."
China will easily take all the Saudi oil
This is going to be absolutely fascinating to watch.
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On Another Note
Public education.
Is this good or bad?
Half of each demographic is male / the other half is female / or thereabouts.
The arrows in the graphic:
- B: the boys will get full college scholarships to play basketball.
- F: the boys will get full college scholarships to play football.
So, again, is this good or bad?
The September, 2022, Jobs Report
Stagflation: requires three things --
- rising unemployment
- rising inflation
- and something else
We won't know for awhile, but it appears inflation has peaked. Maybe. Maybe not.
But unemployment? LOL.
I guess folks are going back to work in order to pay:
- for gasoline; and,
- for marijuana, now that President Biden has effectively legalized it.
I think North Dakota is, right now, trying to figure out if it wants to legalize marijuana. Maybe Biden's actions will help. But I digress. Back to jobs.
BLS: link here --
Here We Go -- October 7, 2022
With regard to Russia using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine I suggested folks might want to follow a few data points to predict when/if that will happen. One of those "things" I suggested folks follow was the distribution of iodine tablets to the Ukraine soldiers. From Common Sense with Bari Weiss this morning:
Two alarming data points: Government officials in Kyiv are reportedly distributing potassium iodine pills in the possible event of a Russian nuclear strike. And last night, at a Democratic fundraiser, President Biden said: “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.”
Facing Armageddon in Ukraine, and picking a fight with Saudi Arabia (one he won't win), Biden has really stepped in it.
WTI: has been rising all night. Now, solidly over $89. Up 1.11%; up almost a dollar; now trading at $89.43.
CVX: up a bunch yesterday; flat so far in pre-market trading.
Nobel Peace Prize:
The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski of Belarus and two groups, Memorial, a Russian human rights organization, and the Center for Civil Liberties, a Ukrainian organization.
Saudi Arabia: in case you missed it. Link here. It should be noted that imported Saudi oil goes to California, now paying over $8/gallon for gasoline. Tea leaves: if Biden bans US oil exports, OPEC+ bans exports to the US. California may want to move its 2035 energy plan to 2023.
Off-shore drilling ban: yes, the Biden administration is one step closer. Pretty soon we can start calling Biden, "Merkel." Though he's becoming a huge friend of the Bakken. WTI: $89.33. Looking for $90 today.
US auto manufacturers: are going to get absolutely crushed during the transition to EVs. Absolutely crushed. Ford has "no choice" but to raise F-150 Lightning prices again" -- analyst. Still cheap at $52,000 for the base Pro model. And then all those tax credits and other incentives.
US auto manufacturers: are going to get absolutely crushed during the transition to EVs. Absolutely crushed. Link here.
US auto manufacturers: I drive pass one of the biggest Chevrolet dealers in the US everyday. The lot is about one-fourth full of pick-ups and a smattering of EV Bolts (or Volts or whatever Chevy EVs are called now -- "Revolts"?). And I never see any change -- it appears the dealership is receiving very few new vehicles to sell, and despite the shortage, they're not flying off the lot (in sales). Meanwhile, the Honda dealership looks like it's recovering nicely. Not sure. Need to check. They know me there. I'm looking to upgrade to a 2023 Honda Civic. Or a 2024 if I can hold out for one more year.
US auto manufacturers: but somehow, Ford will show great 3Q22 results.
OXY:
- clickbait, link here.
- not clickbait, link here.
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Family Notes
This is pretty funny. Sophia is participating in three after-school activities at a very high level of training: gymnastics, dance (ballet) and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
She had a fourth -- swimming -- but that stopped during the Covid lockdowns. The good news: she's an excellent swimmer and may take up "swim team" in middle school.
Gymnastics had/has always been her favorite activity. Then she was signed up for ballet and martial arts.
Without hesitation, she says jiu-jitsu is her absolute favorite. Wow, talk about her competitive spirit. She was selected earlier this week to fight in the end-of-practice select match -- two top performers face off for the match of the day. I believe she might have lost, but it was officially declared a draw, I guess. It was a bit confusing due to all the excitement from the other athletes watching.
Whatever.
So, earlier this week, she was a few minutes late to her weekly gymnastics course -- not her fault, not my fault. The mom that drove her there was delayed by work.
Sophia missed but a few minutes and I considered it a full work-out.
Because Sophia missed roll call, she was signed up for a make-up session later today. LOL. Sophia is so excited to get an extra gymnastics session. We're thinking of showing up five minutes late every Wednesday just to get that free make-up session.
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Family Covid
This is pretty cool.
About a year ago, The NYT ran a competition for children to submit entries for an upcoming book about the impact Covid had on them.
The book is now "out" and we have a copy.
Sophia's father got hit by Covid pretty bad. I honestly don't recall whether he was vaccinated at the time or not. I assume he was but perhaps not. [He is "fully" vaccinated now -- just received his most recent booster two days ago in anticipation of an overseas business trip.]
His respiratory symptoms were significant but he did not require hospitalization. However, his neurological symptoms were downright scary. He lost feeling and strength in his extremities and noted mild-to-moderate cognitive symptoms. There were questions whether he would get back to normal. Ever. It took about six months, but as far as I know he's pretty much back to normal.
No one else in the family has had Covid to the best of our knowledge, and they've all been tested multiple times.
Olivia took the photo and submitted that article that was published by the NYT.
The Underuse Of Covid Treatments Is Leading To Many Needless Deaths -- NYT -- October 7, 2022
The power of Paxlovid.
First, a programming note: This is my last newsletter before starting a book leave. I’ll be back in late January. Until then, other Times journalists will be writing The Morning, and I look forward to reading their work along with all of you.
A worrisome pattern has emerged with Paxlovid and other drugs that reduce the severity of Covid: Many people who would benefit most are not receiving the treatments, likely causing hundreds of unnecessary deaths every day in the U.S.
There seem to be two main explanations for the drugs’ underuse. The first is that the public discussion of them has tended to focus on caveats and concerns, rather than on the overwhelming evidence that they reduce the risk of hospitalization and death. The second explanation is that many Americans, especially Republicans, still do not take Covid seriously.
Today’s newsletter will dig into both issues.
“A large chunk of deaths are preventable right now with Paxlovid alone,” Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House Covid response coordinator, told me. He predicted that if every American 50 and above with Covid received a course of either Paxlovid or a treatment known as monoclonal antibodies, daily deaths might fall to about 50 per day, from about 400 per day in recent months.
Dr. Rebecca Wang, an infectious disease specialist at Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center, has said: “Never really in recent history for a respiratory virus can I think of an anti-viral medication being as effective, demonstrated in scientific literature, as what Paxlovid has shown.”
Dr. Robert Wachter, the chair of the medicine department at the University of California, San Francisco, told me that he thought the underuse of Paxlovid was already associated with thousands of preventable deaths in the U.S. “The public doesn’t seem to understand that the evidence around hospitalization and deaths is really powerful,” Wachter said.
Bad-news bias
By now, you have surely heard about the downsides and shortcomings of Paxlovid.
The drug can produce a metallic taste in the mouth. (One member of my family described it as among the worst tastes she had ever experienced.) Some research has also found that the drug might not cause a statistically significant reduction in hospitalization among younger adults. Most prominently, people who take Paxlovid can endure “rebound” Covid — as both President Biden and Jill Biden did — in which symptoms return after the five-day course of pills has ended.
All of this is true. It also does not change the big picture. Covid is a deadly virus, especially for older people, and Paxlovid reduces Covid’s severity. It does so by inhibiting the virus’s replication inside the human body, the same process that has made H.I.V. treatments so effective.
With Paxlovid, both randomized trials and data from electronic health records have pointed to its effectiveness. Some research finds an effect across all age groups, while other research finds one only among older patients. But that is not surprising. The Covid death rate for people under 50 is already so close to zero that reducing it in a statistically significant way is difficult.
“I think almost everybody benefits from Paxlovid,” Jha said. “For some people, the benefit is tiny. For others, the benefit is massive.” (People who can’t take Paxlovid because it interacts dangerously with another drug they’re taking can usually take monoclonal antibodies.)
A recent analysis of about 568,000 patients by Epic Research found that 0.016 percent of Covid patients over 50 who received Paxlovid died. The death rate for patients who did not get the drug was more than four times higher, or 0.070 percent. And yet the Epic data showed that only about 25 percent of patients eligible to receive Paxlovid actually did, even though the drug is widely available and free for patients.
Perhaps the most shocking statistic about Paxlovid’s underuse — and Jha used the word “shocking” when describing it to me — is that a smaller share of 80-year-olds with Covid in the U.S. is now receiving the drug than 45-year-olds with Covid, according to data he has seen. Many doctors are evidently worried about side effects or rebound cases among their more vulnerable patients.
Even in rebound cases, however, symptoms tend to be milder than they would have been without Paxlovid. After Dr. Anthony Fauci, another White House adviser, who’s 81, contracted Covid in June and then took Paxlovid, he experienced a rebound — and also believed that the drug kept him out of the hospital.
“Medicine is about weighing costs and benefits,” Wachter said. “The recommendation should be clear and unambiguous for people at high risk: The benefits of the drug outweigh the downsides.”
Red Covid
When I last wrote about “red Covid” — the concentration of Covid deaths in conservative communities because of vaccine skepticism — almost eight months ago, I explained why the partisan gap could eventually shrink: Republican communities might have built up more natural immunity through previous infections, and treatments like Paxlovid were becoming more widely available.
This spring and summer, the gap did narrow somewhat. But it has begun growing again in the past two months, according to an analysis by my colleague Ashley Wu.
Data through Oct. 4, 2022, excluding Alaska. | Sources: New York Times database, Edison Research
One possible explanation is that Paxlovid takeup rates appear to be lower in Republican areas, even though they are the very places where the drug could do the most good, because of lower vaccination rates. Government data shows that of the 20 states with the least Paxlovid use between late August and late September (per 100 diagnosed cases of Covid), 18 were won by Donald Trump in 2020.
One possible explanation is that Paxlovid takeup rates appear to be lower in Republican areas, even though they are the very places where the drug could do the most good, because of lower vaccination rates. Government data shows that of the 20 states with the least Paxlovid use between late August and late September (per 100 diagnosed cases of Covid), 18 were won by Donald Trump in 2020.
Paxlovid data is between Aug. 29 and Sept. 25, 2022. | Sources: White House; Edison Research
The shunning of Paxlovid seems to be part of a pattern in which Republican voters have wrongly dismissed Covid as little different from the flu. That mistake has had tragic consequences. A new study by three Yale University researchers found that the wide partisan gap in Covid deaths remained even after controlling for other factors, like age.
Solutions
Jha told me that the Biden administration was committed to increasing the use of Paxlovid and monoclonal antibodies nationwide. “We are going to go after this problem hard,” he said. “We have got to fix it, and we’ve got to fix it in weeks.”
What might make a difference?
Persuading more doctors of Paxlovid’s benefits would probably have the biggest impact. Wachter thinks that accelerating research about rebound Covid — including whether a longer course of Paxlovid would help — could also increase use, given the fear around the issue. He added that he was surprised that government, academic and private researchers had still not learned more about what causes a rebound and how to prevent it.
In coming months, this newsletter will follow up and see whether this country can do a better job of using a widely available treatment to save lives.
Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 7, 2022
#2 story of the day: I thought this would be the #1 story of the day. Then I saw the results of the NFL TNF game last night. LOL.
#2 story of the day. How in the world did the US manage to get into a fight with Saudi Arabia when Californians are paying $8 per gallon of gasoline? But even worse, the Biden administration moves closer to banning all off-shore drilling. Wow.
Saudi will cut production and raise the official selling price (OSP) for oil sold to California. Did I mention that Californians are now paying $8 per gallon?
No-brainer: if US Congress passes NOPEC bill, Saudi Arabia will take a line from Seinfeld: no soup for you. LOL. China can easily soak up all that Saudi oil.
As predicted: Russian production is now falling. Link here.
EIA: if, in fact, the government manipulated the "gasoline demand" data earlier this year, the revisions will significantly impact price of oil as early as ....
WTI: $89 this morning and most analysts now expect to see $100 before the eend of the year.
#1 story of the day: I went to bed early so I missed the end of the game. It was such an incredibly bad game, I went to bed at the half. In the NFL is a "tie" worse than a "loss"? Apparently not. Russell Wilson went for a loss in overtime, fourth-and goal, at the one-yard line with the game on the line. Wow. He won; he got the loss. Are you kidding me? At the one-yard line? Needs to be fact-checked.
#3 story of day: Biden blinks on student loans.
#4 story of the day: the lack of any reporting on the A-10.
#5 story of the day: US auto manufacturers are going to be crushed in the transition to EVs. Absolutely crushed.
#6 story of the day: the press is worried about US senators investing in the US stock market, and then we see stories like the one in the RBN Energy blog today. See below, in red.
Manchin takes home a base salary of $174,000 per year from his government service, but his other ventures make his yearly salary $700,000 per year, and his estimated net worth is $8 million, according to Celebrity Net Worth. Manchin made his fortune as a founder of Enersystems, a coal brokerage firm.
Laser-focused on dividends: Between 2011 and 2020, he took home more than $5 million in dividends. In 2020 alone, he received $500,000 in dividends.
He has been listed as one of the 20 richest senators. Link here.
For the record: I have no problem with any of this. I want US senators to have skin in the game; but their investments must be made public in real-time.
#7 story of the day: CVX.
#8 story of the day: Ukraine.
#9 story of the day: flu season is here. At least in DC and Texas.
#10 story of the day: wow, wow, wow. I did not have a story to round out the top ten.
Then I went back to my e-mail and there, in my e-mail, the lead story from The New York Times. Covid. [Don't go to the link; it's archived. Might post it at this blog later.] Wow.
Yesterday, Bloomberg had an incredibly long article on Pfizer, also. I copied the entire story and archived it. For investors, an open-book test. Now today, The NYT follows up with another huge story that is one big advertisement for PFE.
So, two big positive stories on Pfizer in twenty-four hours: Bloomberg and NYT. An open-book test for investors.
Prediction: "the tent" will become the big story for the NFL this year. Before the year is over, upwards of 50% of starting NFL quarterbacks will visit "the tent."
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Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $89.19. Up almost a full percent in pre-market trading. See #2 story of the day.
Natural gas: $6.761. I guess Europe's problem with natural gas will be next year (2023 - 2024) not this year (2022 - 2023). Unless the Biden administration bans LNG exports.
Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,
Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,
Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 5-12-1-158N-100W-MMBH,
36991, conf, Enerplus, Minnow 149-94-36C-25H,
35626, conf, Bowline Lee 151-101-8-5-4H,
RBN Energy: Appalachian hydrogen hub may have it all, including support from a key US sennator.
The U.S. Department of Energy has laid out a clear set of criteria for the six to 10 clean hydrogen hubs it will select next year to receive up to $8 billion in federal support.
For example, DOE wants at least one hub to use renewable energy to make hydrogen (California), another to use nuclear power (Tennessee), and another to use fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) (North Dakota).
It also wants diversity among hydrogen end-users — geographic diversity too (at least two hubs must be in areas with the greatest natural gas resources) (Appalachia) — and the department says it will give extra weight to proposals likely to create the most opportunities for skilled training and long-term employment.
Yet another factor that’s sure to boost the prospects for hydrogen hub proposals in the heart of the Marcellus/Utica Shale is the looming presence of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, the Energy & Natural Resources Committee chairman who helped make hydrogen hub funding — and the rest of last year’s $1-trillion-plus infrastructure bill (and this year’s Inflation Reduction Act) — a reality.
In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the hydrogen hub proposals now under development in northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio. Over the past few weeks we’ve been reviewing the DOE’s hydrogen hub selection process — now getting under way in earnest — as well as a number of what we see as the leading proposals.
We started with a look at the proposed Houston Hydrogen Hub, then followed that up with blogs on planned clean-hydrogen hubs in the Corpus Christi area and Southern California. Most recently, we examined plans for a regional hub in Louisiana, Oklahoma and Arkansas and reviewed the details in DOE’s September 22 Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA), which officially launched the process of receiving and reviewing hydrogen hub proposals and, ultimately, deciding which proposals should receive federal dollars. As we said then, concept papers from hub proponents are due November 7, while full applications must be submitted to the DOE by April 7, 2023.
The department expects to notify the winners in the fall of 2023 and complete award negotiations with them in the winter of 2023-24. Most of the selected proposals would each receive between $500 million and $1 billion in federal support, though it is possible that a proposal could receive as little as $400 million or as much as $1.25 billion, again depending on its size and need.