The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 09/24/22

Saturday, September 24, 2022

I Still Maintain That "Our Current Problems" Can Be Traced Back To Biden Keystoning And Gaslighting America -- September 24, 2022

Random Update Of A BR Morgan Three Forks Section Line Well -- September 24, 2022

The usual disclaimers. This was done very quickly while watching NCAA football. I think I am now done with this one.

A section line well, still active and a steady Eddy with regard to performance, albeit not particularly remarkable:

Compared to the other three wells on this pad, this well has struggled. The production profile suggests BR has been trying to get this well going.

Frack data:

Three Forks stimulated, 9/28/2015; 36 stages; 3.9 million lbs proppant (very small frack), but this is similar to #29803 with 36 stages, also, 4.2 million bls proppant (small frack)
the geologist's report did not suggest any problem; the lateral was in the target zone for most of the lateral.
TD = 21,010; which was slightly longer than #29803
bottom line: nothing to explain why this well not as good as the other three; simply the vagaries of the oil business?

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2022	29	1148	1188	832	6692	6080	89
BAKKEN	6-2022	21	925	905	555	4631	4169	65
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1189	1185	875	6287	5603	88
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	1045	1037	827	4836	4779	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	21	1138	1130	850	4584	4532	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	948	962	935	3159	3089	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	1166	1166	828	3816	3093	651
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1498	1513	1051	4332	3492	763
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1527	1533	1063	4600	4404	122
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1853	1801	1295	4981	4800	104
BAKKEN	9-2021	9	421	446	662	1365	625	718
BAKKEN	8-2021	27	614	668	485	2808	2741	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1688	1674	1666	8766	8338	351
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1919	1873	1802	7732	6439	1219
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1754	1803	1458	5908	4788	1043
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1722	1681	1132	4211	3804	333
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1753	1699	1332	3030	2953	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	2	11	11	244	51	11	35
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	1	9	9	134	2	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	1	0	17	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	5	286	326	253	1241	1229	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1453	1459	1298	6084	5998	12
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	1945	1940	1358	6497	6420	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	2101	2211	1778	5608	4944	587
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	98	447	536	130	16	40
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	1312	866	1141	5504	5427	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	1713	1708	1227	5657	3856	1727
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	1772	1751	1262	4988	4239	672
BAKKEN	2-2020	23	1456	1461	1145	3277	2033	1187
BAKKEN	1-2020	20	1180	1214	860	3536	2989	497
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	2151	2143	1387	5913	5836	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2532	2519	1494	5474	3453	1947
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	2604	2594	1690	5656	4873	706
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	2388	2400	1757	5396	4855	467
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	2626	2646	1906	4944	4123	744
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	3147	3063	2178	4800	2649	2074
BAKKEN	6-2019	2	22	21	62	45	0	40
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	10	563	629	407	1073	1014	34
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3203	3281	2481	5431	5084	270
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	3182	3200	2575	4913	4843	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	3787	3709	2934	4577	2411	2089
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	2752	2766	2450	3972	3179	721
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	2784	2763	2726	3824	3738	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	3113	3200	3653	4702	4614	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	3973	3798	5453	4768	4676	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	12	11	17	3	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	62	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	15	989	1039	435	2534	2491	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2284	2291	1081	5064	4979	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2633	2526	1344	4182	4094	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	7	224	212	197	189	168	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	1	0	66	0	19	19	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	30	1885	1926	965	5016	4930	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	2265	2236	1084	4944	4858	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	2698	2629	1327	4729	4639	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	5	223	277	162	235	220	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	21	1624	1614	784	3844	3781	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1890	1891	985	3918	3829	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2335	2441	992	3720	3635	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2269	2319	1505	3725	3633	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	2734	2618	1329	4424	4334	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	2705	2669	1495	4050	3954	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	8	836	945	348	758	733	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	28	3910	3826	1690	9447	9360	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	3933	3907	1467	10300	10208	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	4285	4282	2058	13204	13118	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4615	4612	2214	13320	13231	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	4911	4913	2140	13586	13500	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	5779	5780	2297	13907	13819	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	7048	7074	3187	12278	12189	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	29	8334	8275	2814	17327	17313	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	7	2942	2920	1305	5800	5797	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	36	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	16	5954	6182	2829	13379	13200	172
BAKKEN	12-2015	1	2874	2611	600	1224	1098	125
BAKKEN	11-2015	19	3514	3514	6802	5223	0	5203

The graphics:

The four wells on this pad, two run north, two run south:

29805, see above. 802, BR, Morgan 14-21TFH ULW, t11/15; cum 160K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing.
29867, 3,126, BR, Kirkland 14-21TFH ULW, t10/15; cum 714K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing;
29804, 2,806, BR, Kirkland 14-21MBH, t11/15; cum 419K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing;
29803, 2,325, BR, Morgan 14-21MBH, t11/15; cum 300K 7/22; a section line well, four-section spacing.

What A Great Surprise! Movie Night With Vern Whitten! Get Out The Popcorn! September 24, 2022

Link here.

Mr Whitten says:

First, you'll fly over Fargo-Moorhead on a summer evening.

Next, you'll cruise the Red River Valley coming from south of Casselton towards Fargo.
(If you look near the bottom of the video on the right, you'll see the airplane's shadow.)
Finally, we're in Bismarck flying by the State Capitol down to the Missouri River.

So, let's go.

Of the three video clips, I think I enjoyed the Red River Valley from Casselton to Fargo the best.

I did love the summer-evening "lighting" of Fargo-Moorhead.

That "wide" Missouri River -- the Bismarck clip -- is breath-taking. Really amazing.

I'm sure Vern would love to hear from you. Drop him a line, thanking him for sharing his photos and videos of North Dakota and Minnesota.

Vern Whitten Photography
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658

Off The Net -- Parting Shot -- September 24, 2022

I assume readers have noticed that same thing I've noticed in grocery stores: there are still spot shortages of some items.

I don't foresee any major supply chain shortages that we saw a year ago, but these random sport shortages are concerning.

Every time I go to Target to get an item I need (like bread or orange juice), I pick up something that I don't immediately need but would be severely inconvenienced with a spot shortage.

I'm also watching the price of eggs, now at their lowest prices in quite some time. I'm not wasting money on frivolous things like pumpkins. Paper products? Yeah, I would be prepared.

I'm also making sure that my automobile gasoline tanks don't drop below the half-way mark. Hurricane Ian won't impact energy infrastructure in the gulf but the oil and gas sector is so skittish about an environmental event, that "they" may take some infrastructure off line "just to be safe."

Off the net -- going biking.

***********************
Central Market -- Southlake, Texas

Thirty-five minute ride. One way. Easy. Beautiful weather.

I had forgotten how nice Central Market is. When one walks into the produce section, one is immediately reminded of Farmer's Market, west/central Los Angeles. I wonder if Central Market might not be nicer?

Just a thought.

Remember my problem finding anchovies earlier? Not a problem at Central Market. No less than six brands, but wow, three to four times as expensive as Amazon's. And I bet not much difference in taste. Also, octopus and squid, also in oil in tins. Very, very expensive.

Amazing how expensive fresh beef, fresh fish has become. I did not check the prices of chicken.

One can actually find orange juice slightly less expensive than at Target, but Target, for some reason, has really priced their orange juice on the high side. And then bring it down with "sales."

The store is very, very, very busy. One out of ten visitors wear a Covid-19 mask.

Family responsibilities soon, so back on my bike.

What Changed? September 24, 2022

In 2022 The New Yorker was looking for the oil and gas industry to solve "the energy problem."

This reminds me of The New Yorker article in 2011:

Just a few years later, the oil and gas industry is seen by the US SecEnergy as a boogeyman / Frankenstein / environmental terrorist or worse.

And the US economy is in deep trouble.

Do the dots connect?

By the way, this is a very, very interesting story to explore, how the US went from 2011 to 2022. I don't know if I've ever explicitly explained how this happened but I've talked about it in bits and pieces over the years.

Horizontal Drilling -- Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion From Watford City To Tioga -- September 24, 2022

This post began with a note from a reader. Thank you very much.

This reminds me of The New Yorker article in 2011:

It also reminds "how much we lost" due to Covid, and how many years (a decade?) we will be paying for that lost year or two.

This story is important for many reasons, has several data points of note.

North Dakota gas plants.

Note, regarding the charg:

no increase in natural gas processing capacity, 2022 (this year) over 2021 (last year);
next year, 2023, should see an increase of 200 MMCFD
from 4,037 to 4,237, a 5% increase

The increase will be at ONEOK's new Demicks Lake III plant.

Demicks Lake I, in service, 2019: 200
Demicks Lake II, in service. 2020: 200
Demicks Lake III, in service, 2023: 200

Will need pipeline for takeaway from Demicks Lake III.

Enter, WBI Energy Transmission, link here:

Bakken Gas Pipeline Expansion project
origin: Demicks Lake III, Watford City, ND
terminus: Northern Border Pipeline interconnect, Tioga, ND --> midcontinent
175,000 dt/d expansion of its pipeline system
in-service: November, 2023
$32.6 million
expansion of its existing Line Section 27 system
two 24-inch-diameter, 500-foot-long pipelines
two new compressor stations (?)

if I'm reading this correctly, $33 million for a 1,000-foot expansion?

From The Bismarck Tribune, November 18, 2021:

Work is resuming in McKenzie County on a natural gas processing plant project delayed in 2020 by the coronavirus pandemic.

Oneok announced this week that it will complete the project known as Demicks Lake III, an expansion of the company's processing facilities near Watford City.

The company expects work at the site to wrap up during the first quarter of 2023. The new plant will have the capacity to handle 200 million cubic feet of gas per day. It will bring the company's total gas processing capacity across the Williston Basin to 1.9 billion cubic feet per day, which could accommodate about two-thirds of all gas produced in North Dakota. The project is expected to cost $140 million.

I can't say for sure, but it sounds like this partnership / nexus, for three major projects:

Watford City
Tioga
Demicks Lake gas plants (I, II, III -- 2019, 2020, 2023)
under-the-water pipelines, setting records in the process
Michels
Oneok
MDU
WBI Energy, a subsidiary of MDU

************************************
Most Recent Major Pipeline Expansion Project

Link here.

From the linked article, November 4, 2021:

Michels completed a 15,426-foot horizontal directional drill (HDD) of a 24-inch pipe crossing of Lake Sakakawea on the Missouri River in North Dakota, extending the limits of trenchless construction.
The crossing is part of a new pipeline being constructed from Tioga, North Dakota, to near Watford City, North Dakota.

The HDD crossing of just less than 3 miles is one of the longest of its kind, surpassing by 3,174 feet a 20-inch HDD crossing Michels completed in the Bakken region in 2019.

HDD minimized disturbances to the area and provided a delivery outlet for previously untapped energy sources in both instances. Although the crossings were similar in location, length, and technique, each project included its own unique and awe-inspiring accomplishments.

Prior to pullback, the 15,426-foot pipeline was assembled by Michels Pipeline, Inc., into two sections–one of 426 feet and another of 15,000 feet.

When laydown space allows, long sections of pipe can be advantageous because they require fewer pull stoppages to weld pipe strings together. While stopping can generally be accomplished, resuming movement of pipe can be challenging, even with a specific and well-planned drilling fluid and lubrication program. Like the 2019 project, the recently completed project used the pilot hole intersect method and two custom-made drill rigs, each with more than 1-million pounds of push/pull capacity.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Well Count In North Dakota -- September 24, 2022

Usual disclaimers. In addition, in one of the more recent years, I forget which one, I may have miscounted slightly, but it makes no material difference.

Number of wells that came off the confidential list:

CY2021: 342
CY2020: 746
CY2019: 303

Total, CY2018: 923

4Q18: 228
3Q18: 190
2Q18: 263
1Q18: 242

Total, CY2017: 694

4Q17: 200
3Q17: 177
2Q17: 177
1Q17: 140

Break/break

Total, CY2015: 1,870

4Q15: 297
3Q15: 379
2Q15: 519
1Q14: 675

From Lynn Helms, September, 2022:

well count;

with more three-mile laterals, it will mean fewer wells
NDIC has revised downward its projected total well count across the Bakken from 65,000 wells, down to 40,000 wells
currently 15,000 producing wells in the Bakken/Three Forks
currently 17,000 total producing wells in North Dakota

Tier 1:

80% drilled
future: EOR
currently three pilot projects: natural gas for EOR
CO2 for EOR will come eventually

Helms said a multitude of other energy opportunities exist, which have the potential to attract even more industry to the state.

"We're talking about backing up wind farms with gas-fired electricity. We're talking about connecting ethanol plants to CO2 pipelines to bring that to the center and ultimately to the northwestern part of the state. We're talking about value-added natural gas, locally-mined frac sand, and critical minerals, even being mined in southwestern North Dakota," Helms said.

"On top of all of that, we're talking about data centers ... and companies like Rainbow Energy, which are putting together this whole synergistic program down there at Underwood ... it is an amazing concept."

Back to well count.

back-of-the envelope
ultimately 40,000 Bakken wells
currently 15,000 actively producing Bakken wells
at height of activity, 3,000 wells per year
now, going forward, 500 wells per year
25,000 new wells / 500 wells per year = 50 years of Bakken drilling
originally, at the time of the Bakken boom, back in 2007 timeframe, drilling activity could continue to 2100
2022 +50 = 2075

Week 38: September 18, 2022 -- September 24, 2022.

Top Stories

Top story:

Putin says he's not bluffing about going nuclear.
US says response would be horrific.

Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition. Price of oil at 8-month low.

Top story of the week:

US equity market plunges; "Fed" raises rates 75 basis points; everyone expected that
guidance was the reason for the market's sell-off; recession likely; rates higher for longer.

Top international energy story: