Off The Net -- September 11, 2022

The Dallas Cowboys are not impressing me. Later: Dak Prescott "out" for several weeks due to "broken thumb" requiring surgery. Well, there goes someone's Fantasy Football season. And Aaron Rodgers isn't doing too great either. 

The Dallas Cowboys: the only NFL team to NOT score a touchdown in the opening week.

The Dallas Cowboys: the only NFC East team not to have won in the opening week. After first week:

Belichick vs Brady: I may have this wrong, but it seems I read any number of stories debating whether the credit goes to Belichick or Brady for the success of the New England Patriots. It appears to me that the credit goes to Brady. 

Vikings: perhaps the most entertaining / best Sunday game. Packers vs Vikings. The best part: a true regional rivalry. The fans must have loved it. Well, at least some of the fans.

NASCAR: Bubba Wallace won the NASCAR race today. Even NASCAR doesn't interest me much right now. 

Market: I'm too excited about the market. I'll be up early.

Good luck to all.

On another note: https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Walter%20Reed%22&src=trend_click&vertical=trends. Later: still no explanation at 2:15 a.m. Monday morning, September 12, 2022, and the mainstream media has not picked up the story. But I have to admit: getting off a flight in golf shoes after flying from Florida and landing in Washington, DC, with no comment from the FPOTUS is very, very strange. Did Merrick Garland make his move? The animosity between POTUS and FPOTUS is palpable. Nothing would surprise me any more.

2035: Every New Car Sold In California Will Be An EV -- September 11, 2022

Of course we know that's not going to happen.

Pause, deep breath.

Or do we?

Let's say only 90%, not 100% of all new cars. 

Still a bridge too far?

Okay, 75%.

A charging station too far?

Okay, 50%.

Pick a number, any number.

Right now, it's, what? Two percent?

SRE surged $5 in one day, last week, hitting a 52-week high, which I believe was also an all-time high.

And that was on no news. Or at least any news of which I was aware.

Apparently there are more than 40 public utilities in California. Most folks, I assume, know only two. 

These two are also the two largest utilities, #1 and #2, in America.

I'll let the reader connect all the dots.

Why aren't "we" accumulating as many shares of these two publicly traded utilities as we can afford between now and oh, let's say, 2035?

By the way, if California bans gasoline cars, a number of other states will, by state law / regulation / policy / politics also be forced to ban gasoline cars.

Imagine if California decreed that every laptop computer in 2035 must use MacOS. Just saying.

Energy Odds And Ends -- September 11, 2022

New Jersey, link here:

Vancouver, link here:

Soft landing.

India:

Sempra: Someone Likes It -- September 11, 2022

Link here.

• Russia has completely stopped supplying natural gas to Europe, and Sempra stands to benefit.
• This has major consequences for companies that depend on natural gas and consumers in Europe.
• Sempra has already signed 3 contracts with European LNG customers to supply Europe with American LNG.
• This should be a major catalyst for Sempra.

Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

In 2035, Sempra will be one of only a handful of utilities charging every new car sold in California. What's not to like? It's an open-book test.

Grandfather Bragging -- Nothing About The Bakken -- If You Hate To Listen To Parents/Grandparents Bragging, Skip This Post -- September 11, 2022

Earlier today I posted:

Is the NFL back? Our middle granddaughter who is academically at/near the top of her high school sophomore class; lives and breathes soccer; is an accomplished painter and sculptor; is her class treasurer; won recognition (and money award) in the New York Times photography contest two or three years ago; has been asked to "run" the high school robotics club in lieu of simply being a member of the club; and the list goes on. Today, I learned that she is playing Fantasy Football with her soccer friends, and is upset that she picked the wrong "Cook," but fortunately she "has him sitting on the bench and he's not hurting her line-up too much."

Moments ago my wife sent me this note:
 

Olivia is our granddaughter. 

"GHS" is Grapevine (Texas) High School. ASPIRE might be referred to as "talented and gifted" in other settings.  

Disney -- September 11, 2022

For "investors":

• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Link here.

The blog has been huge for me. The blog has probably done more for my quality of life and investing than anything I've done outside of family and "significant others." Wow, I've learned a lot. Without the blog, I never would have followed "the streaming wars."

Now, this from The Motley Fool: 

A new member loyalty program could provide the entertainment giant with multiple cross-selling opportunities.

As the streaming wars intensify, Walt Disney is exploring whether a membership loyalty program like Amazon Prime could not only drive more viewers to its Disney+ service, but serve as a vehicle to boost sales at theme parks, resorts, cruises, and stores.

Dubbed "Disney Prime" by insiders, according to The Wall Street Journal, Disney hopes it will allow the company to hit its aggressive streaming service subscriber targets as well as maintain the attendance growth it has achieved at its theme parks, especially if a global recession strikes.

Few companies enjoy the synergies Disney does -- a movie generates toys and theme park rides that creates a long tail of revenue growth -- so by offering discounts and perks in one seamless package, the entertainment giant could keep its sales juggernaut going.

I am not yet accumulating shares in DIS. Don't know if I ever will. No matter how good it is,

• there are plenty of better options; and,
• it doesn't pay a dividend.

By the way, on another note, my "Disney account" continues to grow. Our twin grandsons will be going to Disneyland when they are eight years old. Six years from now. Sophia will be fourteen; she's never been to Disneyland. Thinking.

Anyway, everyone says Disneyland is very expensive, too expensive to make it a destination for middle-income families. I disagree.

But to "manage" the expense, I started a Schwab equity account nicknamed "Disney Trip" and I fund it with a minimum of $100 on the 30th day of each month. Generally, I fund it with $200 / month. The money is "new" money; it is not a transfer of money from another Schwab account. There is a lot of "energy" in that portfolio now but no DIS. At the end of the year, I add an additional contribution to bring it even with the value of the portfolio one year earlier if there's been a year-over-year loss. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

What Money Managers Like -- September 11, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

What money managers like.

The billion-dollar club:

• AAPL
• XOM
• UNH
• Eli Lilly

Energy, the $500 million club:

• EOG
• COP
• NextEra Enery

Medical, the $500+ million club:

• Merck
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals
• Elevance Health

Other:

• Dollar General

Starting To Make The Case To Extend The SPR Release -- September 11, 2022

Link here. 

GS has a price target of $125 or thereabouts. 

That's fine. The new SPR: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian. Western Canada would be in the "new SPR" mix, but Biden killed the Keystone XL his first day in office. Best thing he ever did for the Permian. 

The Sports Page -- Rankings: College Football -- September 11, 2022

Updates

Later, 2:21 p.m. CT: the second week ratings are out. As projected, Texas dropped Alabama to #2.  

New ratings.

• Georgia -- up one
  
• Alabama -- down one
  
• Ohio State (U)
  
• Michigan (U)
• Clemson (U)
  
• Oklahoma - up one
• USC -- up three -- whoo-hoo
• Oklahoma State -- up three
• Arkansas-- up eight
• Utah -- breaks into the top ten
  

Original Post 

After week two, projections. 

Texas will drop Alabama from first to second.

Top ten, projected (U for unchanged)

• Georgia -- up one
  
• Alabama -- down one
  
• Ohio State (U)
  
• Michigan (U)
• Clemson (U)
  
• Oklahoma - up one
• USC -- up three -- whoo-hoo
• Oklahoma State -- up three
• Michigan State -- up five
• Arkansas -- up seven

Is the NFL back? Our middle granddaughter who is academically at/near the top of her high school sophomore class; lives and breathes soccer; is an accomplished painter and sculptor; is her class treasurer; won recognition (and money award) in the New York Times photography contest two or three years ago; has been asked to "run" the high school robotics club in lieu of simply being a member of the club; and the list goes on. Today, I learned that she is playing Fantasy Football with her soccer friends, and is upset that she picked the wrong "Cook," but fortunately she "has him sitting on the bench and he's not hurting her line-up too much."

Yes,  I would say the NFL is back. 

And, the NASCAR playooffs continue.

Cocktails: I've quit drinking martinis, but this might be good for the archives.

The Real Reason Egypt Is Moving Its Capital -- Vox -- September 11, 2022

This is a huge story. 

Over at Vox.

I hate video news, but this one is worth watching.

From wiki:

The New Administrative Capital is a large-scale project of a new capital city in Egypt that has been under construction since 2015. 

It was announced by the then Egyptian housing minister Mostafa Madbouly at the Egypt Economic Development Conference on 13 March 2015. The capital city is considered one of the programs and projects for economic development, and is part of a larger initiative called Egypt Vision 2030.

The new capital of Egypt has yet to be given a name. A competition was launched on the new capital's website to choose a new name and logo for the city. A jury of specialists was formed to evaluate the proposals submitted to list and determine the best among all the proposals. 

No official results have yet been announced by the Egyptian Government. In October 2021, transportation minister Kamel al-Wazir indicated the city might be named Egypt.

The new city is to be located 28 miles east of Cairo and just outside the Second Greater Cairo Ring Road, in a largely undeveloped area halfway to the seaport city of Suez. According to the plans, the city will become the new administrative and financial capital of Egypt, housing the main government departments and ministries and foreign embassies. 

On 270 sq mi total area, it would have a population of 6.5 million people, though it is estimated that the figure could rise to seven million.

Officially, a major reason for the undertaking of the project was to relieve congestion in Cairo, which is already one of the world's most crowded cities, with the population of Greater Cairo expected to double in the next few decades. Cairo, for comparison, has a population of nearly 20 million. 

Even wiki knows the "official reason" for the move is not the "real reason." Vox provides the real reason.

Time To Life Sanctions -- September 11, 2022

Link here.

Okay, that was yesterday.

Now this:

What catches your eye?

Yeah, that was written in March, about one month into the invasion and already things were not going well.

If that was a serious question then, with all the supporting arguments, imagine how much more things have changed for the worse for Putin.

I think it's time for the EU (and the US) to lift all sanctions on Russia's selling and moving oil and natural gas but lift none of the other sanctions. Doing so would do two things:

• "save" Europe with regard to energy, inflation;
• exhaust Russia's SPR.

It would have no effect on the outcome of the war. Analogy: Reagan's Star Wars. As far as I remember, Reagan put in place no sanctions on Russia. He simply went head-to-head with Russia, and won.

Salamis -- Waterloo -- Corinth -- Bastogne -- Tet -- 911 -- Izyum -- September 11, 2022

I thought about Corinth, Mississippii, and the US Civil War when reading about Isium (Izyum), Ukraine, over the past 72 hours.

Years ago I put together a US Civil War study guide for middle school students. It was based off The Memoirs of General US Grant. Corinth was perhaps the most important strategic point at that time of the war. It was at the crossroads of two major railroads held by the Confederates.

From wiki: Corinth

Corinth's location at the junction of two railroads made it strategically important. 

Confederate General P.G.T. Beauregard retreated there after the Battle of Shiloh, pursued by Union Maj. Gen. Henry W. Halleck. Beauregard abandoned the town when Halleck approached, letting it fall into Union hands. Since Halleck approached so cautiously, digging entrenchments at every stop for over a month, this action has been known as the Siege of Corinth.

Maj. Gen. William Rosecrans moved to Corinth as well and concentrated his force with Halleck later in the year to again attack the city. The Battle of Corinth took place on October 3–4, 1862, when Confederate Maj. Gen. Earl Van Dorn attempted to retake the city. The Confederate troops won back the city but were quickly forced out when Union reinforcements arrived.

As noted, I thought about Corinth and the US Civil War when reading about Isium (Izyum), Ukraine, over the past 72 hours.

Russia moves on rails, not on trucks. 

From Politico:

As Ukrainian troops race forward in what appears to be an unexpectedly successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, locals are coming out to greet their liberators with hugs and promises of pancakes, according to videos published on social media.

Ukrainian soldiers have punched through the Russian frontlines in a lightning maneuver and seem to be establishing a noose around Russian forces in the highly strategic town of Izyum, which is of crucial logistical importance for Moscow’s operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Seeming caught off-guard, Russia insists that it is sending reinforcements and is “evacuating” civilians in the face of the Ukrainian advance.

As they push deeper into the Russian-occupied territory, the Ukrainian soldiers are posting videos of their reception in towns and villages along the route of their breakthrough. 

Look how fast wiki is updating this webpage:

If indeed this is accurate what is now being reported, and, if indeed, Izyum is a(nother) turning point in the war, battle historians will be studying this for a long time. Will it grow in "stature" as the Battle of Bastogne has? Will it be compared to the Tet Offensive that some argue was the tipping point in that war.

Some things to explore:

• how did Russia manage to lose this strategic stronghold;
• were the Russians stretched too thin?
• were the Russians running low on munitions, vs a Ukraine army that had the US and, too some extent, NATO re-arming them?
• to what degree did US airborne intelligence provide the Ukraine generals with information regarding "soft" points?
• why now? Why did the Ukrainians do this now, not next month, or next spring?

At Least I'm Not The Only One That Feels This Way -- September 11, 2022

Link here.

When I hear Janet Yellen say "we will get rid of oil and gas," taking her at her word, this tells me she is incredibly naive (stupid would be a better word, but too crass); and,
very, very mean with no heart.

Let's Add MPC And APA To The Mix -- September 11, 2022

Two other oil stocks to buy before Devon Enery: link here.

Is Devon Oil a better energy play than Marathon Petroleum (a refiner)? Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.    

Devon Energy:

• market cap: $45 billion
• p/e: 8.68 (thank you, ESG)
• dividend: 6.8% (would be higher if share price had not appreciated so much -- darn it, all)

Others

• CVX: $313 billion; 10.69; 3.55%
• EOG: $73 billion; 12.7; 2.43% 
• OXY: $61 billion; 6.45; 0.79% (you can see why Buffett continues to accumulate OXY)
  
• PXD: $57 billion; 9.91; 10.62%
• MPC: $50 billion; 6.75; 2.32% (a refiner)
  
• MRO: $18 billion; 6.25; 1.21%
  
• APA: $12 billion; 4.3; 1.31%

The low p/e's are absolutely amazing:

• ESG
• Yellen: we will get rid of oil and gas

Dividends are about the only discriminator at this moment, for a first pass. If one is contemplating buying APA or DVN, one must first explain the wide spread between dividends.

P/Es are a secondary discriminator right now.

Market cap: merger, acquisition, predator, prey.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week; Operators Managing Their Assets; Incredibly Price Sensitive -- September 11, 2022

The wells:

• 38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Narwhal 34H, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
• 38723, conf,  Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-11H, Pembroke, no production data,
• 38204, conf, Whiting, Lehr 11-13-2HU, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2022	27531	17546
6-2022	30881	15379
5-2022	29167	14522
4-2022	28766	13851
3-2022	3112	900

• 38726, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 38727, conf, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 29784, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
• 29292, conf, Slawson, Phoenix 3-18H, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 29783, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30-3TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
• 29293, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 3-19-30H, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 29294, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
• 37693, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
• 29782, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 2H, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
• 37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH, North Fork, no production data, 
• 37828, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW, North Fork, no production data, 
• 37367, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H, East Tioga, no production data, 
• 29781, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
• 37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH, North Fork, no production data, 
• 37368, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-3H, East Tioga, no production data, 
• 35442, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23H, Alger, t--; cum 70K 7/22;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2022	25332	25610
6-2022	25110	24122
5-2022	10995	11463
4-2022	3660	2218
3-2022	3363	2538

• 38007, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa, 54K 7/22;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2022	7933	31144
6-2022	11573	31121
5-2022	15286	26198
4-2022	5086	13151
3-2022	22624	24996

• 37369, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week; A Long Stretch With No New CLR Well Being Reported -- September 11, 2022

Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 33 for the month, 83 for the quarter, 422 for the year
38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Narwhal 34H,
38723, conf,  Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-11H,
38204, conf, Whiting, Lehr 11-13-2HU,

Tuesday, September 20, 2022: 30 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 419 for the year
38726, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH,

Monday, September 19, 2022: 29 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 418 for the year
38727, conf, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H,

Sunday, September 18, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
None.

Saturday, September 17, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
29784, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H,
29292, conf, Slawson, Phoenix 3-18H,

Friday, September 16, 2022: 26 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 415 for the year
29783, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30-3TFH,
29293, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 3-19-30H,

Thursday, September 15, 2022: 24 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 413 for the year
29294, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH,

Wednesday, September 14, 2022: 23 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 412 for the year

• 37693, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH, North Fork,
• 29782, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 2H, Stockyard Creek,

Tuesday, September 13, 2022: 21 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 410 for the year

• 37694, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 2-1-17TFH,

Monday, September 12, 2022: 20 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 409 for the year

• 37828, conf, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 TFH-ULW, North Fork,
• 37367, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-3H, East Tioga,
• 29781, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 1TFH, Stockyard Creek,

Sunday, September 11, 2022: 17 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 406 for the year

• 37695, conf, BR, Lone Beaver 4-1-17MBH, North Fork,
• 37368, conf, Petro-Hunt, Estby 159-94-35C-26-3H, East Tioga,
• 35442, conf, Whiting, Lapica 34-23H, Alger, t--; cum 70K 7/22;

Saturday, September 10, 2022: 14 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 403 for the year

• 38007, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-5, Capa, 54K 7/22;
• 37369, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-2B-11-2H, East Tioga,