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Wednesday, August 24, 2022

The Bakken Blog -- August 24, 2022

If you are interested in the Bakken, the best blog on the internet, with no ads, no subscriptions, no passwords ..... themilliondollarwayblog ... none better. Just saying.

Simply The Best Television On Television -- August 24, 2022

"Only Murders In The Building."

Just possibly the best "television series" I have ever seen.

Each season has ten episodes.

The second episode ended last night; the tenth episode of the second season.

The eighth episode, second season was forgettable. The ninth episode was incredible. I could not believe how much they squeezed into an episode. I didn't think they could come up with a better episode.

And then the tenth episode, last night. 

Unbelievable. 

My new favorite sandwich: liverwurst and marmalade. Or braunschweiger and grape jelly. LOL. 

Later: from a reader, see first comment -- https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/food-and-cooking/recipes/the-ultimate-braunschweiger-sandwich/article_934d9d73-72fe-59b8-967a-67aecf9db08c.html.  

Later, later: another comment on red onions -- https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/lifestyle/food-drink/eating-red-onions-might-just-8976584.

Music: here

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On the sunny side of the street: link here.

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The Apple Page

This is incredibly important to me.

This has nothing to do with investing. With regard to investing and Apple, I couldn't (or could) care less.

This has everything to do with how great I think Apple, Inc. is as a company, and nothing to do with investing.

This is very important to me / for me.

Remember, it was my younger daughter, Laura, and I who used to carry our prayer rugs to the mall when we arrived at the Apple store before it opened. 

From IBD

Apple stock is in a 34-week consolidation patternwith a buy point of 183.04, according to IBD MarketSmith charts. That buy point is 10 cents above the stock's all-time high of 182.94 reached on Jan. 4, based on IBD trading guidelines.

CLR's Allen Wells And CLR's Boe State Wells In XTO Drilling Units In Dollar Joe And Beaver Lodge -- August 24, 2022

From the daily activity report dated August 24, 2022:

Six new oil and gas permits, #39193 - #39198, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR.
  • Field: Dollar Joe (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for three Allen wells and three Boe permits, all in section NWNW 16-155-96; 
      • to be sited 430 FNL and between 575 FWL and 800 FWL

Despite being sited in 16-155-96 which is in Beaver Lodge, based on the report, two wells will be in Dollar Joe.  The other four will be in Beaver Lodge, but one as a section line well. Everything suggests three will run directionally east to west into sections 17/18-155-97, Dollar Joe, and then swing north to south in sections 17/20-155-97. 

The other three will go directly from the pad into the drilling unit, sections 5/8-155-96, Beaver Lodge, with the section line well also a Beaver Lodge well.

If so, existing wells in sections 17/20-15597 and new CLR permits:

  • 18893, 1,142, XTO, Allen 21X-17, Dollar Joe, t6/11; cum 186K 6/22; was off line 4/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
  • 28942, 605, XTO, Allen 21X-17F, Dollar Joe, t6/11; cum 78K 6/22;
  • 28941, 1,245, XTO, Allen 21X-17B, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum 100K 6/22; was off line 6/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
  • 28940, AB/1,280, Allen 21X-17E, t3/15; cum 107K 5/21;
  • 28939, 1,172, XTO, Allen 21X-17A, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum 134K 6/22; was off line 10/20 - 5/22; just came back on line;
  • 39193, conf, CLR, Allen 6-17H, Dollar Joe,
  • 39194, conf, CLR, Allen 7-17H, Dollar Joe,
  • 39195, conf, CLR, Allen 8-17HSL, Beaver Lodge,

Existing wells in sections 5/8-155-97 and new CLR permits:

  • 26821, 1,298, XTO, Boe State 31X-16D, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 143K 6/22; was off line 4/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
  • 26822, 607, XTO, Boe State 31X-16H, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 114K 6/22;
  • 26823, 753, XTO, Boe State 31X-16C, Beaver Lodge, t7/14; cum 101K 6/22; was off line 1/21 - 5/22; just came back on line;
  • 18620, 400, XTO, Boe State 31X-16, Beaver Lodge, t7/10; cum 137K 6/22;
  • 39196, conf, CLR, Boe State 5-16H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 39197, conf, CLR, Boe State 6-16H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 39198, conf, CLR, Boe State 7-16H, Beaver Lodge,

Gasoline Demand -- EIA Data -- August 24, 2022

Link here.

As of 4:00 p.m. CT, the EIA has updated the numbers on this graph but has not updated the actual lines.


In light of the EIA failing to even report data for one week back in June, 2022, this is very, very interesting. The numbers were updated but the graphic was not? Say what?

Later: it took all night but finally, Thursday morning, August 25, 2022 -- EIA updated their graph.

CLR With Six New Permits -- August 24, 2022

WTI: $95.31. Diesel climbs for first time in two weeks.

SNOW: up $33 market closes; earnings surged.

  • Warren Buffett should be relieved.
  • P/E? Greater than 1,000x forward earnings.
  • Note: all iCloud / all software
    • Apple is huge in this same sector.

NVDA; big earnings miss.

  • EPS: 51 cents vs $1.26 anticipated
  • CEO still blames the supply chain; getting a bit tiresome.

Natural gas: $9.220.

Narrative starting to change?


CVX
: negative all day, finally jumps a bit at the close. Same with OXY

US crude oil: supply in days -- drops below 26 days again; at 25.9 days.

Gasoline demand, EIA data:

  • this week's report was released;
  • the gasoline demand graph has not been updated
  • the numbers are changed / updated from last week, but the graphic itself is not yet updated (3:30 p.m. CT)
  • it appears this data point should slump a bit in this report based on most recent data point

This hurts, link here

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $95.24.

Natural gas: $9.250.

Active rigs: 46.

Six new oil and gas permits, #39193 - #39198, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR.
  • Field: Dollar Joe (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for three Allen wells and three Boe permits, all in section NWNW 16-155-96; 
      • to be sited 430 FNL and between 575 FWL and 800 FWL

Someone Is Also Laser-Focused On Dividends -- August 24, 2022

Link here.

One question: do buybacks give one a revenue stream for re-investment in retirement?

Disconnect -- August 24, 2022

Check the share prices of the E&Ps in these four charts vs their earnings.

See if you can see the problem.

If following the news for the past six months, it's even more interesting.

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The Third Time Is The Charm

Other see it different: two oil price crashes later, shale investors are finally being paid. Link here.

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Investors Are Too Pessimistic

From The WSJ.

Saudi Arabia and Goldman Sachs agree: Investors have the oil market all wrong.

Money managers bracing for a global slowdown have pulled back from bets on oil and other commodities, helping push prices lower. But their focus on potentially waning demand isn’t shared with some of the most powerful figures in the industry, or with investment banks, who point to a host of other reasons why prices should be higher.

This week, Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the oil futures market has become increasingly disconnected from supply and demand for energy. Saudi Arabia is considering cuts to OPEC+ production to try to balance this, a move that other members of the oil cartel said they may also support.

The median forecast among 22 Wall Street analysts surveyed by FactSet is for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, to finish September at $115 a barrel. That contrasts with Wednesday’s $100 a barrel. The most actively traded Brent crude futures have fallen nearly 4% in August, regaining some ground after trading as low as around $92 a barrel earlier this month.The market is irrational and the combination of decent demand, falling inventories and tight supply should be pushing prices up, Goldman Sachs analysts said in an Aug. 12 report.

“Almost any measure of investor participation in this space is dwindling, this is what gives us the confidence to say this is investor-led,” said Jeff Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, referring to the recent price declines.

Much more at the link.

Investors are not too pessimistic. They are rational. They need an incentive to invest in E&Ps.

Exhibit A:

  • despite soaring profits, and,
  • 12% off its recent 52-week high,
  • CVX is up .... drum roll ..  six cents today on a stock that trades for $160 (6/16000) = 0.00% to the nearest hundredth -- and now, the share price has actually turned negative for the day.
  • dividend history here

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Two Assistants For The Price Of One

A CLR Carus Well Goes over 700K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

  • 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, t8/07; cum 571K 3/20; huge jump in production, 7/19; cum 684K 5/21; cum 710K 6/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2022162235224836573570337810
BAKKEN5-202231375937077487501547615
BAKKEN4-2022221717174745783071288913
BAKKEN3-2022313387340482653239299010
BAKKEN2-20222843134224103342252203511
BAKKEN1-202285285401282160953
BAKKEN12-2021121545160336842661678
BAKKEN11-202130507350591175092568524
BAKKEN10-20212433693303664429142623105
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20212162425303
BAKKEN7-202142101100
BAKKEN6-20216380420331153615200
BAKKEN5-20213111234112909669304823002351
BAKKEN4-20212597249503884221187208600
BAKKEN3-20215142216451318524051880
BAKKEN2-2021281033710296978535914355390
BAKKEN1-20213112001119981119842542421230
BAKKEN12-20203113357132181079644767443480
BAKKEN11-2020301423314379109073802937424200
BAKKEN10-20201896779676824818453182180

A CLR Carus Well With A 20x Jump In Production -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 161K 3/20; cum 167K 5/21; huge jump in production; cum 235K 4/22; off line 4/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202217390742251511482446670
BAKKEN3-202217506948182902519149790
BAKKEN2-202224637266542750824479460
BAKKEN1-2022311155011608583514730143110
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400
BAKKEN4-202130477576788975050

Initial production back in 2008:

BAKKEN11-20083035723000629429042900
BAKKEN10-200829395137101051379337930
BAKKEN9-20083039043883839323132310
BAKKEN8-200820292429241199239423940
BAKKEN7-200824503950141430455545550
BAKKEN6-200830575158983530413641360
BAKKEN5-20081207451682000
BAKKEN4-200824114062996425250
BAKKEN3-20081900552000

A CLR Carus Three Forks Well With Jump In Production After Almost Ten Years Of Production -- August 24, 2022

The CLR Carus wells in Cedar Coulee are tracked here.

The well:

  • 21794, 379, CLR, Carus 2-28H1, Cedar Coulee, t7/13; cum 347K 6/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20222520192047418731412516351
BAKKEN5-202231255121795779411237070
BAKKEN4-20222619862011507925672139110
BAKKEN3-20221067850320037726480
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-202114671916157288770123
BAKKEN11-2021301953183247002506207625
BAKKEN10-202131283327516618325528410
BAKKEN9-202114187818683816205018720
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20213027167100
BAKKEN5-2021233022382985282350
BAKKEN4-2021304153065287253360
BAKKEN3-2021315076014638374180
BAKKEN2-2021285305774838354580
BAKKEN1-202131665121264310776580
BAKKEN12-202031699076711967770
BAKKEN11-20203083184592313519460

A CLR Gale Well WIth Jump In Production -- August 24, 2022

The well:

  • 17211, 240, CLR, Gale 1-32H, Rattlesnake Point, t8/08; cum 172K 622;

Recent production:

  • note: 5,059 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 9,000 bbls over 30 days.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2022212627262546344135406669
BAKKEN5-2022182714274042882026199531
BAKKEN4-2022304406438374782638259741
BAKKEN3-2022243902388472185664562242
BAKKEN2-202200220000
BAKKEN1-20221750595043135965443535093
BAKKEN12-202141203119730661272124428
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20211291241100
BAKKEN6-202119702000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20202874612942909580587
BAKKEN6-202022603243019
BAKKEN5-2020172630904360206
BAKKEN4-2020284762401427330371
BAKKEN3-20203152275316780430356
BAKKEN2-2020294815501377373470
BAKKEN1-2020315205711687433240
BAKKEN12-2019315082991337613420
BAKKEN11-2019305015631577613560

Huge Jump In Blackhawk Production -- August 24, 2022

The Charles Blackhawk wells are tracked here.

Recent production for two of these wells.

  • 22650, 247, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HX, Heeart Butte, t11/2; cum 235K 6/22:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2022308776878824117606549910
BAKKEN5-2022319136907532952511539820
BAKKEN4-2022306266626825352359718291058
BAKKEN3-2022319741971742490528240730
BAKKEN2-2022285614557232753477212973362
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-202100098000
BAKKEN6-202121333003537620
BAKKEN5-2021318487651058811258236
BAKKEN4-20213084677010348100548
  • 22649, 709, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HA, Heart Butte, t11/12; cum 280K 6/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2022308564863310487549246790
BAKKEN5-202231130661300317794740562930
BAKKEN4-202230113931139314157622054900
BAKKEN3-202231170361697427237825570850
BAKKEN2-2022286984695314942593724713390
BAKKEN1-202231708670651433660231335890
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-202100042000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202011948613200
BAKKEN4-20208189253271241510
BAKKEN3-20203194795785690761816
BAKKEN2-20202989988080986156924
BAKKEN1-202030924937783884340207
BAKKEN12-201930885890858847240116
BAKKEN11-20193088987889485244638
BAKKEN10-20193195795988491551927