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Monday, August 15, 2022

The Sports Page (Limited) -- August 15, 2022

I've flip-flopped on the NFL so often ...

... but wow, I'm so ready for the NFL this year. 

I haven't seen any of the pre-season games due to traveling but finally, I was able to read about the Dallas game the other night. 

Sloppy

By the way, I mentioned traveling. This was our route -- it was a round-trip, Audi Quattro rental from Enterprise.

$8,500 -- Add-On Cost -- Just Like That -- August 15, 2022

EVs: link here. Scorecard.

Battery costs, link here


The most interesting "thing" to watch: whether the "same"battery placed in "all models" of the F-150 Lightning will cost the same, or if the "same" battery will cost more in an otherwise more upscale F-150?

Back to the cost of the battery add-on:

  • $8,500 / $50,000 =
  • 20% is not trivial
  • nor is $8,500 -- that's a lot of gasoline money to pay for something with compromised towing capacity that may not be particularly efficient in really cold weather.
  • but not my concern. 

EVs -- The Biden Bill -- August 15, 2022

The Biden Bill, EVs-2022, is an "investors' bill. The bulk of the money goes to US auto manufacturers. No money to manufacturers outside North America; and most incentives target manufacturers, not consumers. 

EVs: link here. Scorecard.

The Biden Bill -- the Inflation Reduction Act (climate, health, and tax)

MSN-Reuters, August 15, 2022: the article is a bit confusing. Data points:

  • the bill will eliminate EV tax credits for most models currently getting up to $7,500 effective (sic)
  • restructures the existing $7,500 new EV tax credit
  • creates a new $4,000 rebate for used EVs
  • but the bulk goes to auto manufacturers: loan programs; tax credit and grant programs

New law:

  • 70% of 72 US electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell EVs that currently qualify, ineligible
  • none would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect

CBO estimate:

  • 11,000 new EVs will receive tax credits in 2023 assuming $7,500 per vehicle

Those that won't qualify

  • Audi of America
  • only its plug-in hybrid will retain existing federal credit through the end of 2022
  • Kia
  • Porsche
  • any vehicles assembled outside of North America
  • huge hit for EU, South Korea, and many others

200,000 vehicle cap:

  • GM
  • Tesla

New credits available for those who exceed 200,000-cap

  • stricter sourcing and income rules

Comment: this looks exactly like a bill that Trump would have signed:

  • bill would eliminate tax credits for the "wealthy"
  • bill would favor middle income
  • money targets the manufacturers and the workers in those industries, not the buyers
  • vehicles need to be assembled in North America (including Canada and Mexico)
  • for investors: another open-book test
  • the reason 70% of 72 US electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell EVs that currently qualify would no longer qualify: assemble must be in US. I'm sure Trump would have wanted the same thing 
  • for companies like Apple, this is huge -- they now have the "new" rules

Buffett -- 2Q22

Warren Buffett: link here

2Q22: link here, highlights; and, more in depth, here --

  • bought:
    • AAPL
    • Chevron
    • OXY
    • Activision Blizzard
    • Paramount Global
    • Ally Finanical
    • Celanese
    • McKesson
    • Markel
  • sold:
    • remaining position in Verizon
    • trimmed GM
    • sold some Kroger

Five New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; Nat Gas Prices Moving Again -- August 15, 2022

Weber: link here.


XTO: West Capa. A reader noted that CLR drilling in another "XTO-drilling unit." I guess we'll need to "tag" these posts; XTO_Divest_2022. In this case, the drilling units:

  • drilling unit:
    • XTO parent well: #18894 (Woodrow)
    • CLR daughter well: #39085
  • drilling unit, to the west:
    • XTO parent well: Christiana, #20062
      CLR "Roxy": #38938

Not enough land:

  • The link has long been lost / broken, but XOM provided a very, very excellent analysis about ten years ago when I first started blogging, saying the very same thing: link here

Permian: on track for record September production: link here

EIA dashboards:

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $88.42. Big pullback today. Nothing to really explain the pullback.

Natural gas: $8.820. Natural gas appears to be starting to "move" again.

Active rigs: 47.

Five new permits, #39166 - #39170, inclusive:

  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has permits for five neew Pennington wells, SWSE 8-152-92; 
      • to be sited between 766 FSL and 837 FSL and between 2249 FEL and 2345 FEL

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38577, 246, Slawson, Liightning Federal 4-24-13TFH,
  • 38578, 315, Slawson, Raiinmake Federal 8-25-36TFH,
  • 36675, 3,303, Grayson Mill (Equinor), Larsen 10-3 7HH, 

Name changes: it appears Petro-Hunt is changing nomenclature to better describe wells; perhaps it's always been doing this and I simply missed it, or simply forgot. It's been an exhausting two weeks. Two examples:

  • old:
    • Arsenal 7-17-20H
    • Arsenal 6-17-20H
  • new:
    • Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H,
    • Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-2H,

Did I Miss Something? August 15, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

I am still recovering from a cross-country trip: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.


Did I miss something?

I woke up this morning before the market opened, and all I was hearing was that the market was in free fall following the New York manufacturing index dropping to its lowest in twenty years or something like that, and here we are, late afternoon:

  • DOW: up 362 points
  • S&P 500: up 20 points
  • Nasdaq: up 92 points

Even WTI has recovered nicely and natural gas is down all of five cents, trading at a remarkable $8.615.

Oh, here it is: United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.

From Investopedia:

The term NY Empire State Index refers to the result of a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York state. The survey is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank sends out the survey every month to business leaders who represent a wide swath of the manufacturing sector. The headline number for the index refers to the main index of the survey, which summarizes general business conditions in New York state. The index is widely watched for insights into the state and direction of manufacturing in New York state. 

Empire State. New York. Manufacturing. One state. Are you kidding me.? That spooked everyone?

Think about this. One state. Why not look at the manufacturing index for the entire southeast and southwest (excepting California, of course)?

But this makes it huge. Look at "actual" vs "forecast." Wow, wow, wow. Does anyone think the Fed is really going to raise rates another 25 basis points with this data point, much less 75 basis points. 

Index:

  • forecast: positive 8.5
  • actual: negative 31

The other item spooking folks: China cut "rates." Did anyone even look at the actual rate cut? Ten basis points.

China’s central bank cut both one-year and seven-day lending rates by 10 basis points, a move economists said would have little impact since Covid controls have made households and businesses reluctant to borrow. New credit in July increased at the slowest pace since at least 2017. Bloomberg.

Folks who have not read Peter Zeihan's book, c. 2022, completely miss(ed) the point regarding China's economic numbers. Oh, well. 

Dog Days Of Summer -- August 15, 2022

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: pre-market, down over 5%; down almost $5; trading below $90 at $87.13.

Natural gas: $8.435.

No wells coming off confidential list today or over the weekend.

RBN Energy: global refining capacity to grow, but US gains will be negligible.

The cost of gasoline has garnered a lot of headlines since the start of 2022, with the blame for elevated prices falling on seemingly everything and everyone, from the Biden administration’s policies on oil exploration to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as decisions by major U.S. producers and OPEC not to swiftly boost oil production. 
Another can't-be-ignored culprit is the loss of significant U.S. refining capacity over the last few years, which has limited the ability of refiners to respond to the strong, post-COVID demand recovery by ramping up production. By and large, the refineries still operating have been running flat out. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the state of global refining, where new capacity is likely to be built, and the headwinds to future investment.