I've flip-flopped on the NFL so often ...
... but wow, I'm so ready for the NFL this year.
I haven't seen any of the pre-season games due to traveling but finally, I was able to read about the Dallas game the other night.
By the way, I mentioned traveling. This was our route -- it was a round-trip, Audi Quattro rental from Enterprise.
Battery costs, link here.
The most interesting "thing" to watch: whether the "same"battery placed in "all models" of the F-150 Lightning will cost the same, or if the "same" battery will cost more in an otherwise more upscale F-150?
Back to the cost of the battery add-on:
The Biden Bill, EVs-2022, is an "investors' bill. The bulk of the money goes to US auto manufacturers. No money to manufacturers outside North America; and most incentives target manufacturers, not consumers.
The Biden Bill -- the Inflation Reduction Act (climate, health, and tax)
MSN-Reuters, August 15, 2022: the article is a bit confusing. Data points:
New law:
CBO estimate:
Those that won't qualify
200,000 vehicle cap:
New credits available for those who exceed 200,000-cap
Comment: this looks exactly like a bill that Trump would have signed:
Warren Buffett: link here.
2Q22: link here, highlights; and, more in depth, here --
Weber: link here.
Not enough land:
Permian: on track for record September production: link here.
EIA dashboards:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $88.42. Big pullback today. Nothing to really explain the pullback.
Natural gas: $8.820. Natural gas appears to be starting to "move" again.
Active rigs: 47.
Five new permits, #39166 - #39170, inclusive:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Name changes: it appears Petro-Hunt is changing nomenclature to better describe wells; perhaps it's always been doing this and I simply missed it, or simply forgot. It's been an exhausting two weeks. Two examples:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
I am still recovering from a cross-country trip: my notes will be less frequent, perhaps shorter. I will not get to my e-mail as often and I will not be able to post comments as often or in a timely manner.
Did I miss something?
I woke up this morning before the market opened, and all I was hearing was that the market was in free fall following the New York manufacturing index dropping to its lowest in twenty years or something like that, and here we are, late afternoon:
Even WTI has recovered nicely and natural gas is down all of five cents, trading at a remarkable $8.615.
Oh, here it is: United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
The term NY Empire State Index refers to the result of a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York state. The survey is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank sends out the survey every month to business leaders who represent a wide swath of the manufacturing sector. The headline number for the index refers to the main index of the survey, which summarizes general business conditions in New York state. The index is widely watched for insights into the state and direction of manufacturing in New York state.
Empire State. New York. Manufacturing. One state. Are you kidding me.? That spooked everyone?
Think about this. One state. Why not look at the manufacturing index for the entire southeast and southwest (excepting California, of course)?
But this makes it huge. Look at "actual" vs "forecast." Wow, wow, wow. Does anyone think the Fed is really going to raise rates another 25 basis points with this data point, much less 75 basis points.
Index:
The other item spooking folks: China cut "rates." Did anyone even look at the actual rate cut? Ten basis points.
China’s central bank cut both one-year and seven-day lending rates by 10 basis points, a move economists said would have little impact since Covid controls have made households and businesses reluctant to borrow. New credit in July increased at the slowest pace since at least 2017. Bloomberg.
Folks who have not read Peter Zeihan's book, c. 2022, completely miss(ed) the point regarding China's economic numbers. Oh, well.
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: pre-market, down over 5%; down almost $5; trading below $90 at $87.13.
Natural gas: $8.435.
No wells coming off confidential list today or over the weekend.
RBN Energy: global refining capacity to grow, but US gains will be negligible.
The cost of gasoline has garnered a lot of headlines since the start of 2022, with the blame for elevated prices falling on seemingly everything and everyone, from the Biden administration’s policies on oil exploration to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as decisions by major U.S. producers and OPEC not to swiftly boost oil production.
Another can't-be-ignored culprit is the loss of significant U.S. refining capacity over the last few years, which has limited the ability of refiners to respond to the strong, post-COVID demand recovery by ramping up production. By and large, the refineries still operating have been running flat out. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the state of global refining, where new capacity is likely to be built, and the headwinds to future investment.
