Is Anyone Paying Attention? XOM's Share Re-Purchases And Increased Dividends For 2022 -- August 1, 2022

ExxonMobil:

• annual dividend: $3.52; yields 3.63%.

Now look at this, link here or here:

Exxon Mobil’s pledge to return approximately $30 billion via share repurchases and a nearly equivalent amount via dividends in 2022.

Let's do the math.

That statement clearly states $30 billion ... share repurchases and a nearly equivalent amount via dividends in 2022.

A nearly equivalent amount: that would be $30 billion.

First question: how many outstanding XOM shares? 4.21 billion shares outstanding. 

The arithmetic isn't that difficult to do:

$30 billion / 4.21 billion shares = 30/4.21 = $7.125 per share.

First two quarters:

• ($3.52 dollars/2) x 4.21 billion shares = $1.76 x 4.21 billion shares = $7.4 billion dollars paid so far this year in dividends (two quarters).

For the full year (2022): $30 billion.

$30 billion  - $7.4 billion = $22.6 billion for the last two quarters.

$22.6 billion / 4.21 billion shares = $5.37 / share for two quarters = $2.68 / quarter (for the last two quarters) vs the current ($3.52 / 4) = eighty-eight cents/share /quarter.

Disclaimer: I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors.

I guess a simpler way to check:

$30 billion / 4.21 billion shares = $7.125 per share.

So, for the entire year, "we" have to get to $7.125 per share.

So, far, 88 cents x 2 = $1.76 / share has been paid.

$7.125 - $1.76 = $5.365 / share yet to be paid, divided by two quarters = $2.68 / share per quarter for the remaining two quarters (vs 88 cents) in the last two quarters of 2022. 

 I'll believe it when I see it.

The Streaming Wars: Focus On Apple -- August 1, 2022

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

• Apple TV+ gaining traction; link here.

 From the linked article:

Service revenue, which includes businesses like Apple TV+, along with the App Store and Apple Music, climbed to $19.6 billion for the period, a June quarter record and a 12% increase year-over-year.

On the earnings call, Apple executives praised the streaming platform, noting it has earned 250 wins and over 1,100 award nominations since its 2019 inception.

Earlier this month, Apple TV+ nabbed 52 Emmy Award nods across 13 titles, led by "Severance" and "Ted Lasso." The service is also the first streaming platform to take home an Oscar best picture win (thanks to "Coda.")

Additionally, Apple has leaned into sports content, announcing joint partnerships with both Major League Baseball (MLB) and Major League Soccer (MLS).

Moving forward, Apple said it's continuing to "improve the breadth and the quality" of the platform, noting "a constant flow of new content on Apple TV+."

Although the company does not break out individual performances (Apple TV+ is estimated to have anywhere from 30 million to 40 million subscribers), the tech giant revealed that transacting accounts, paid accounts, and accounts with paid subscriptions all grew double digits year-over-year.

Paid subscriptions, in particular, "showed very strong growth" with more than 860 million paid subscriptions across all of the services, an increase of more than 160 million during the last 12 months.

Much, much more at the linked article.

Investors Only -- August 1, 2022

Earning schedule:

Earnings wrap for August 1, 2022, link here. Of those that interest me, ticker, actual vs expected:

• DVN: $2.59 vs $2.38; earnings growth: 332%
• FANG: $7.07 vs $6.66; earnings growth: 195%
• VNOM: 43 cents vs 43 cents; earnings growth: 378%
• WMB: 40 cents vs 37 cents; earnings growth: 48% (whoo-hoo)
• OTTR: $2.05 vs $1.27; earnings growth: 103%: (wow)

Dividend wrap for August 1, 2022:

• NOG declares a quarterly dividend of 25 cents; a 32% increase over prior quarter
• at an annual $1.00 per share, and trading at $30, that's $1/$30 = about 3.3%

The Apple page, link here, exactly how it's done:

Intel: to introduce Wi-Fi 7 in 2024; probably not available to average consumer until 2025; link here.

• Wi-Fi 7 is the successor to Wi-Fi 6E
• meanwhile, Apple is likely to release Wi-Fi 6E in the iPhone 14 to be release later this year
• I may be reading it wrong, but it sounds like Apple will have Wi-Fi 7 at same time as Intel, as well as Qualcomm, Broadcom, and MediaTek
• in other words, this Intel announcement is just another Pat Gelsinger press release

The Mercedes page, link here: thee EQE electric sedan is as profitable as the E-Class --

• has only just started selling the sedan and apparently it's already as profitable, if not more, than the curent E-Class
• cost, in Germany to the buyer:
• E-Class: under $50,000
• EQE: starts at $70,000
• the "hotter" EQE 43 AMG: over $100,000
• E still stands for "elite"
• Mercedes will build four battery plans in Europe and one in the US
• it will also build the EV SUV in the US

Sempra, per Morgan Stanley:

• Texas heat positioning Sempra very, very well;
• Sempra owns 80% stake in the state's largest utility, Oncor Electric
• some readers tell me that Texas heat is resulting in $5,000 / MWh at peak peeriods (whoo-hoo)
• MS sees a potential for SRE to have a ten-cent beat
• the best thing SRE ever did was diversify out of California
• second best thing: partner with Mexico 
  

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

• Warner Bros. Discovery begins house-cleaning this month, August, 2022
• already CNN+ was scuttled just after one month of operation
• expect big layoffs at CNN
• TBS "Full Frontal with Samantha Bee" has just been canceled
• big changes could also come to HBO Max streaming service
• one possibility: HBO Max being folded into a combined entity along with Discovery+.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

• Apple TV+ gaining traction; link here.
• and, here.
  

Personal note:

• Hulu seems to be a real winner
• even Roku may be seeing its end not too far in front of its headlights

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

IRS Changes For Inherited IRAs -- We Will Get Back To This Later -- August 1, 2022

Link here to The WSJ.

The rules on inherited IRAs were most recently changed in the 2019 Secure Act, which introduced a new 10-year payout rule for inherited accounts. The previous rule said those who inherited an IRA, Roth IRA or 401(k) could spread out withdrawals over their lifetime.

Many tax professionals interpreted the new 10-year rule to mean that these heirs could wait until the 10th year before taking any payouts, and that is what the IRS said in a May 2021 revision to Publication 590-B, a 69-page guide to IRA distributions. But then, in February, the IRS issued new guidance that would require heirs to take annual withdrawals in cases where the original owner died on or after his required beginning date for taking distributions. 

Briefly, The WSJ says these are the new rules:

Instead, the new IRS guidance would require heirs subject to the 10-year rule to take annual withdrawals from the accounts during that period if the original owner died on or after his or her “required beginning date” for payouts. Under current law, that’s April 1 after the year in which the IRA owner turns 72.

For example, say that a 50-year-old inherits a traditional IRA from her 77-year-old mother, who died early this year. According to the new rules, this heir must take annual IRA payouts based on her life expectancy as prescribed in IRS Pub. 590-B. Then she must withdraw the remainder when she’s 60. (She could, of course, take larger withdrawals earlier.)

Four New Permits; Two Permits Canceled; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 1, 2022

WTI: $94.07.

Natural gas: $8.213.

Four new permits, #39117 - #39120, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Todd  (Williams); Blue Ridge (Williams)
• Comments:
• Crescent Point Energy has a permit for a permit for a CPEUSC Szarka well in lot 1 section 2-158-100, 
• to be sited 265 FNL and 385 FEL;
• Oasis has permits for three Osprey wells in SWSE 23-154-101; 
• to be sited between 677 FLS and 743 FSL and 1411 FEL;

Two permits canceled:

• CLR: a Chloe permit in Williams County, and a Pasadena Federal permit in McKenzie County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38553, 82, CPEUSC Pankake 6-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data,
  
• 36245, 195, BR, Maverick 2D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  

DVN -- August 1, 2022

The new dividend:

• quarterly = $1.55
• 4 x $1.55 = $6.20
• current DVN price: $62
• dividend annual yield: 10%

From Reuters:

• 2Q22
• surpassed estimates
• raised quarterly dividend by 22%
• to $1.55 from $1.27
• lifted its 2022 (this year) production forecast too 600,000 bopd fromo 570,000 bopd
• due to better-than-expected (say what?) well performance; and,
• acquisition of Williston Basin assets (say what?)
• net earnings:
• $1.93 billion vs $256 million one year ago;
• $2.93 per share vs 38 cents / share a year ago;

The biggest takeaway for me with regard to DVN's earnings and share price:

• investors want dividends, not share buybacks.

Wells Fargo, San Francisco, Dallas, And All That Jazz -- August 1, 2022

Now that the word is out, I guess I can post it on the blog.

Wells Fargo is moving from San Francisco to the Dallas-Ft Worth (Texas) area.

Several years ago, every Texan had to sign a non-disclosure statement with regard to this move: if anyone asked, all we could say was "I don't know. I haven't heard a thing."

Just kidding.

But now, at Yahoo!Finance:

Years of rumors have been confirmed by an Irving City Council agenda. San Francisco banking giant Wells Fargo  is in the running to receive up to $31 million as part of economic incentive agreements with the city tied to a large-scale office development that could house as many as 4,000 workers.

The development, dubbed a “regional campus” within city documents, is expected to consist of 800,000 square feet of new office space set among a broader mixed-use campus featuring a couple of hundred multifamily units, restaurants and retail.

The office, which will be developed by Dallas-based KDC, will be constructed near the Irving Convention Center and Toyota Music Factory at the corner of West Las Colinas Boulevard and Promenade Parkway – one of the last and largest vacant sites in the area.

It looks like Wells Fargo is doing what several other huge corporations headquartered in California are doing. They are moving to Texas but not really moving. They will call the move a "new regional campus" but leave the corporate sign standing in California. 

Q&A -- August 1, 2022

A reader asked:

Q: I'm wondering if you know where the monthly production for each well is being recorded on the NDIC website ? It used to be on the Scout Ticket but hasn't been updated for a couple months now.

A: I'm not sure what the reader is asking: whether the scout tickets are now up to date, or if the NDIC is posting production at the website on the scout ticket or somewhere else?

After the NDIC updated its website, there were many significant changes.

It appeared to me, and I could be wrong, but my bookmark for the scout tickets no longer worked. 

When I "located" the scout tickets again, "production" did not show up, nor did a link to the file reports.

I could be wrong on that. 

But, "locating" the scout tickets from the NDIC menu solved the problem for both. Again, that was my perception and how I remember it.

Regardless, here are the links:

• scout tickets with monthly production (that's what I called it, but it's incorrect; doesn't matter; the link works)
• at that link, upper left hand corner, menu includes "scout ticket data" and "field production."
  
• scout ticket:
• in the "old days," scout ticket went immediately to "production data" -- at least the way my links were configured; but now, the scout ticket at this link has the link to "production history" (which was always there); again, it may be just the way I had the links and perhaps nothing changed at the NDIC. I don't know.  
• production history: my hunch is I was wrong when referring to the "well production history data" as the scout ticket. 

With regard to whether the data at "production history" is current or not, I assume the data is current. Most wells now show data for 6/22 (June, 2022) although some, like Oasis, are still showing data only through 5/22 (May, 2022).

I'm posting this now, but I have not checked to see if the links work. I will do that once this is posted and then correct if necessary. Later: I checked the links and they seemed to work.

Most interestingly, these links seem to work on the Firefox browser again. During the transition to the new system, I couldn't access the scout tickets / production histories on Firefox, but could access them on Chrome and Safari. 

Note: there may be typographical and content errors above. This is a conversation and the conversation may continue. 

All Bakken Wells Coming Off Confidential List The Last Few Days: CLR -- August 1, 2022

My in-box is filled with links to stories that need to be reported, but for the moment, those stories will have to wait. 

I had a long note on "recession" ready to go but the whole topic no longer interests me. I deleted it and won't be posting it. I'll just post "the poll" at the sidebar at the right. 

USAF: the "couple of fighters in the photo below are F-15s, with tail sign "LN," RAF Lakenheath, England. When I was assigned there, I flew right seat, F-111.

How 'bout them Cowboys? Link here.

Later: see first comment. Historical value of the Dallas Cowboys here. Imagine their value if they win a playoff game. LOL.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: drops below $93.

Natural gas: $7.826.

Active rigs: 46 or thereabouts.

Tuesday, August 2, 2022: 2 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 372 for the year

• 38169, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 6-28H1,

Monday, August 1, 2022: 1for the month, 32 for the quarter, 371 for the year

• 38701, conf, Summit Carbon Solutions, LLC, Slash Lazy H 5,

Sunday, July 31, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 370 for the year

• 38168, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 5-28H1,

Saturday, July 30, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 369 for the year

• 37009, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 3-22H1,

RBN Energy: will the propane market be prepared for winter? It depends. Part 2. 

The official start of propane heating season is only two months away, and inventories are skinny, pretty close to the five-year minimum. Should that be a concern? After all, stocks were at the low end of the range last year, and it was a relatively benign market, with few supply chain disruptions. But there’s a potential gotcha in that statement. Because last year the first three months of winter were quite mild in propane country. What would happen if the market were hit with weather events like what we saw during the “polar vortex” of 2013-14, a winter etched into the minds of all propaners who lived through it? Obviously, the outcome would be quite different.  In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the upcoming propane heating season with a look at the challenges that unusually cold weather could bring.

This is the second episode of a blog series focused on the outlook for U.S. propane markets during the upcoming 2022-23 heating season. Part 1 was mostly a look in the rear-view mirror, covering the huge increase in export volumes over the past few years, the wide swings in domestic propane seasonal demand, and a cycle-by-cycle review of propane price behavior over the past 18 months. The bottom line is that last year propane prices spiked way up prior to the onset of winter due to a confluence of bullish market developments, then virtually collapsed in November and December when winterlike weather failed to arrive on cue. In essence, prices were high when marketers were building stocks and low when it was time to move those supplies to market. That is not the way it is supposed to happen and can be painful for any company not using the most robust hedging strategies.  

Inflation -- August 1, 2022

Link here.