A Little Of This, A Little Of That, At The End Of The Day -- Conversation Starters At The Deli Tonight -- July 12, 2022

GOEV: earlier today it was noted that GOEV surged on news that Walmart will be buying 4,500 Canoos, if I recall correctly. After that news, it was reported that a Canoo erupted in fire. Link here to Bloomberg.

Germany EVs: electricity is now so costly in Germany, only the wealthy can afford these "luxury" cars. Link here.  

Oil: looking forward to November, 2023. Link here.

Crack spreads: earlier today I mentioned crack spreads in passing. Later today, over on twitter, Josh Young mentioned crack spreads. Link here.

Southern surge: there will be a few millionaires in that horde some decades from now. Link here. And their high birth rate, generally speaking, should be welcome.

Sri Lanka: Peter Zeihan, link here.

Flashback, eighteen years ago, February 21, 2004, The Guardian, George W. Bush was president. Link here.

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

British Open:

• the tournament begins Thursday, July 14, 2022
• British Open coverage began yesterday and on golf channels / sports networks coverage will pretty much run 24/7 through the weekend and into Monday next week
  
• from the looks of the early televising, it appears the only golfer really playing this tournament this year is Tiger Woods. 
• he is, of course, the sentimental favorite to win by a dozen strokes.

Only murders in the building: link here. Fourth episode, second season today. 

WTI Will Test $95; Six New Permits; EIght Permits Renewed; No Permits Canceled; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 12, 2022

WTI: $95.79. Two things have changed and one photo-op is in the offing:

• we will get the CPI report tomorrow. It will show core inflation is running at 10.2%; up 120 basis points from previous report - fake sources. How this affects the price of a oil is a derivative of a derivative
• the strength of the dollar is surging; and, the dollar and the euro have now reached parity. All things being equal there is an exact inverse correlation between the strength of the dollar and the price of oil.
• President Biden will be meeting with counterparts in the Mideast this weekend on a two-day whirlwind tour of the oil cartel.
  

NG: $6.163

Active rigs: 45 or thereabout

Six new permits, #39076 - #39081, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4); Grayson Mill; and, Wesco Operating
• Fields: Alger (Mountrail); Todd (Williston, Williams); Bicenteennial (Golden Valley)
• Comments:
• Hess has four RS-State permits, Nese 2-155-92, 
• to be sited between 1564 FSL and 1663 FSL and 564 FEL;
• Grayson Miill has a permit for a Dave Arnson well, NWNW 17-154-101, 
• to be sited 386 FNL and 381 FWL;
• Wesco Operating has a Hall Fed permit for SWNE 12-144-104, 
• to be sited 1759 FNL and 2262 FEL;

Eight permits renewed:

• CLR: two Salem permits; two Marlene permits; two Schroeder permits; and, two Sacramento permits, all in Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36111, 0 (no typo; typical for BR), BR, Outlaw Gap 44-23TFH, Sand Creek, minimal production, the BR Outlaw Gap wells are tracked here.
• 35755, 1,647, XTO, Tom State 34X-1EXH, Alkali Creek, first production, 5/22; t--; cum 20K 5/22;

More Odds And Ends -- #3 Today -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 12, 2022

Amazon fulfillment center, Sioux Falls, SD, link here:

• largest building project ever in Sioux Falls
• 6700 N. Marion Road, northwest Sioux Falls
• will completely change the landscape in this area
• if nothing else, a lot of pop-up "food trucks"
• under construction; to open soon;
• 1,000 full-time jobs
  
• 1,244,050-square-feet, multi-level building
• $61 million to install the material handling system
• total: $220 million
• Amazon also paid $7 million for the parcel of land in Foundation Park

More Idle Chatter -- July 12, 2022

To a reader earlier this morning, discussing President Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia this weekend, not ready for prime time:

1. Saudi Arabia will get the new F-35s. Their pilots won't be able to fly them at night, and they won't be able to re-fuel midair (a skill not needed in their case), but they will have the new fighters. They also won't be filled with all the best software. Israel gets the "real deal" or provides it themselves.

2. The politicians seem not to understand the oil issue. At this moment in time there is an excess of oil. Perhaps six months from now, or a year from now, the inventories around the world will be depleted but at this moment in time, more oil is not the answer. In the US, the refiners are operating at 94% capacity; they can't do better. Sure, the refiners will pay less for the raw product but they love the crack spread -- upwards of $50 / bbl -- and that's where the real cost comes from. Refining -- marketing -- transportation.

3. But yes, sometime down the road, there may be a relative shortage of oil, but at this moment in time, there's an excess and more oil won't affect price -- except perhaps psychologically and traders' arbitrage and panic, etc. which could lead to a flash decrease in price.

4. With regard to OPEC reserves -- I started talking about this on the blog ten years ago. Others are finally coming around: the myth of spare capacity. Saudi Arabia is not increasing production for one of two reasons: a) they don't have the capacity (for whatever reason) to produce more; or, b) they have the capacity to produce more but not the desire. When Saudi Arabia does (appear to) have short periods of increased production, it's smoke and mirrors. It's not new production; it's a release from their inventories, just as Biden's release of oil from the US SPR.

5. Whether Saudi has lack of ability (capacity) or lack of desire to produce more, it doesn't matter. It's the same outcome for the customer, the refineries.

6. Refineries: except for the teapot refineries in China, quick! Name the huge new greenfield refineries that have come on line in the past ten years. Yeah, that's about right. None. I'm sure there are some, but I can't find them. On top of that, old refineries are closing or converting. The best recent example is the huge refinery in San Francisco that just converted from crude oil to sustainable, renewable stuff. Irony: the state of California is now suing the refiner for making the conversion even though it was an environmentally-driven decision.

7. I can imagine the price of oil falling after Biden's visit, but I can't imagine it's anything other than transitory (like inflation). The three things driving the price of oil now: inflation (driving price of oil higher); the strength of the dollar (driving the price lower); and, fear of recession (driving price lower).

8. If war comes to an end in Ukraine, the price of oil will tumble. No matter the terms of the "Peace Treaty" the Europeans will immediately drop all sanctions. Even Canada returned the Nord Stream 1 turbine which had fallen under sanction rules.

Amazon: I've never lost (not received) an order from Amazon.

Last month, mid-month June, I ordered a very small accessory for my Apple laptop. It was to arrive same day, on/about June 18, 2022. It never arrived. Finally, on/about June 25, 2022, Amazon sent me a note: "We are very sorry for the delayed delivery. You may request a refund." I requested a refund and within 72 hours the refund was credited to my account. 

Today, July 12, 2022, the small accessory arrived, almost a month late. Looking at the pasted-over mailing labels, one can determine what happened. The original mailing label said it was shipped June 18, 2022 (same day delivery) but was never delivered. Somewhere along the line the small accessory was handed over to UPS for delivery -- perhaps from the very beginning.

I have "never" lost a delivery from Amazon. This was a lost delivery involving UPS. My hunch: Amazon handed off the delivery to UPS and UPS was simply slow in their delivery process -- this often happens when an item is handed over from one shipper to another. And then UPS lost track of it.

FedEx in Portland, OR, is atrocious with regard to timeliness and reliability 

USPS seems to never lose anything.

Idle Chatter -- July 12, 2022

Reading: I've just finished chapter two of Ken Kocienda's c. 2018 book. Chapter two, alone, was worth the price of the book. Clever, clever, clever. I will recommend it to my nephew who is a software engineer. 

Amazon: not ready for prime-time but something I sent a reader earlier today --

Yesterday there was a note over at twitter how much money Amazon was spending / losing on $6-diesel -- it was costing Amazon $4.81 / every unit shipped/delivered.

Those were Amazon's own numbers, not those of an analyst.

In other words, averaging transportation costs to each item shipped, it was costing Amazon $4.81 to deliver a $10 book.

Those were Amazon's numbers, not those of an analyst.

That does not interest me at all.

What interests me is what Amazon is not telling us. I believe Amazon's "web services" (AWS) is the biggest cloud "server" in the universe. No one else comes close, not even Google.

Amazon has the technology to identify me, Bruce Oksol, not by the IP of my computer. No matter what computer I'm on (personal, public, library, business, etc) when I surf the net (not logging into Amazon), Amazon has the technology to identify me.

It's called fingerprinting and one can google "amiunique" or "am I unique?"

On top of this, Amazon mining of its own cloud data, Amazon knows:

• my age, sex, educational background, where I've worked all my life; 
• my annual income; my pension; my social security benefits;
  
• everything I've ever bought on line (not just from Amazon) 
• what I like; what I don't like; 
• what I read: books, periodicals, websites
  

Facebook is getting killed by Apple's privacy tools and tricks. but those tools and tricks do not affect Amazon at all (perhaps on the margin, but not in the big scheme of things).

They have my entire life and that of everyone else that uses the internet (not just Amazon customers).

Every company and marketer would "kill" for this information. I don't know whether Amazon sells marketing information to others, but I am confident that Amazon uses all that data for their own purposes.

So, I don't think they care that it costs $4.81 to ship anything to me. Every time I do that, they learn $5.00 worth of information about me. Or more. If nothing else, they can sell my history of buying books to publishing companies.

Yesterday, out of the blue, I received a free copy of an incredibly impressive glossy magazine, a monthly. A free issue. It's right up my alley. I had never seen it before. British in origin, now with an American issue (since 2019, or thereabouts).

This magazine was tailored for me -- not literally -- but it's exactly what I'm looking for. Yes, I will subscribe, it's expensive. It's of "Playboy" quality without the sex or women. Unlike buying "Playboy" for the articles (wink, wink) this magazine really is bought by someone like me to read the articles.

I have no idea how the publisher came across my name to send me a free issue but my hunch it the publisher found it through Amazon web services.

The preceding was not proofread; there will be typographical and content errors.

Buffett: yesterday I posted a big graphic of Warren Buffett and a note. 

At that post, I asked a question to which no one respnded.

Here's the punchline:

We'll talk about this later. Back to reading.

Chilling -- July 12, 2022

Subway: one million free sandwiches between 0700 and 1400 today. 

Poolside, 9:07 a.m., July 12, 2022, Euless, TX, local temp 89°F.

This should keep me occupied for the next few hours.

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The Book Page

I'm re-reading the "Reader's Digest" version of the War of the Roses while I go back through Josephine Tey's murder mystery from the same period. I finished the book over the weekend but want not to go back through it and pick out the clues comments made by the former (?) Scotland Park investigator.

I've started Ken Kocienda's Creative Selection: Inside Apple's Design Process During the Golden Age of Steve Jobs, c. 2018. Ken was the "former" principal engineer of the iPhone software at Apple.

Odds And Ends -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 12, 2022

The Sports Page 

Scotland: only three Americans have been made honorary citizens of Scotland. Two of them are/were golfers. One of the two is still with us and will be presented with that honor later today. [It appears it is happening now: 9:00 a.m. CT, July 12, 2022.]

Can anyone name the third America to be named an honorary Scot? As far as I know, although he did a lot of things, and is one of Charlie Munger's favorite personalities, this individual never golfed.

The 17th hole.

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The Nature Page 

Swainson's hawks: I first noticed these hawks several years ago and have blogged about them periodically since then. This is one link, from July 18, 2022.

I've noticed them for thee past several weeks this summer, soaring over eastern Euless, TX, probably in the relatively open area (lots of open fields) between DFW and Euless/Grapevine, TX. They soar too high too get any photos.

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The Apple Page

Today:

• first M2 MacBook Air orders begin shipping ahead of July 15 launch; link here;
• MacBook Air models being shipped directly from China
• orders have sold out
• most configurations are now shipping out ni late July and beyond
• price starting at $1,199 -- for those paying attention this is an incredible price
• Apple's Mac shipments grew in 2Q22 amid continued worldwide PC shipment decline; link here;
• Apple shipped an estimated 6.4 million Macs during the quarter, up from 5.8 million in year-ago quarter;
• = 9.3 percent year-over-year growth
• Apple number four vendor but holy mackerel, Apple lags worldwide PC sales
• we've discussed this often -- but many years ago
• most amazing (I hope folks are paying attention):

Mac shipments were up despite severe supply constraints that saw some MacBook Pro models delayed for multiple weeks or even months, and Apple was the only vendor to see positive growth.

All other PC vendors saw a decline in shipments during the quarter due to supply chain issues.

Yesterday: Link here.

Two of the above four articles linked here:

• why the iPhone will fail, engadget, Chris Ullrich, June 27, 2007;
• five reasons not to buy an iPhone, TheStreet, Brett Arends, June 29, 2007;

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Starbucks

Starbucks will close five Seattle stores and one in Everett (home of Microsoft):

• high crime rates
• broad initiative to boost security at the cafes
• there may be more to this story, but yet, it's all about safety, but maybe not for the reason we're being told; 

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WWW-iii

Tracked here. 

Recommended reading: Carl von Clausewitz.

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EVs

In the news;

• GOEV soars: share price could double today.
• RIVN: planning hundreds of layoffs; CEO says company has grown too fast;
  
• BYD: Buffett getting ready to sell his entire position? There's talk.
• BYD: outselling and outperforming Tesal; link here; already behind a paywall; 

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Volleyball

This was removed from another site for copyright reasons. Owned by The [London] Guardian.

Link here.

As of 8:48 a.m. CT, July 12, 2022:

• 650 views Jul 12, 2022.
  

The US beach volleyball team kept the ball in play with an incredible display of defensive skill against Ecuador at the Beach Volleyball World Championships. Despite numerous shots that should have won their opposition the point, Sara Hughes threw herself around the court, denying Ecuador the chance for celebration. Footage courtesy of Volleyball World.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Through The Rest Of The Week -- July 12, 2022

 GOEV soars: on Walmart order. Share price could double today.

Dollar: kinda strong.

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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: will test $99.00 today. 

Active rigs: 45 or thereabouts.

Yes, the North Dakota January was this bad six months ago:

• Saturday, July 16, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year 
• None.
  
• Friday, July 15, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year 
• None.
  
• Thursday, July 14, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year 
• None.
  
• Wednesday, July 13, 2022: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 352 for the year 
• None. 

RBN Energy: RBN's new consulting team refined fuels analytics.

Gasoline and diesel prices are skyrocketing. Refineries are running near maximum capacity. The Biden administration is asking refiners to bring more capacity online to relieve refining constraints. And as the economy recovers from the COVID meltdown, it looks set to get worse before it gets better. So the timing could not be better to launch our new team focused on refineries and refined products: RBN Refined Fuel Analytics. We readily admit that this is an advertorial but stick with us, it will be worth it. We’re building out a whole new approach to the understanding of refined fuel markets –– both traditional hydrocarbons and renewable fuels –– from feedstocks through refining processes to final products. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll introduce the who, what and how of this important initiative.