Pages

Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Seven New Permits; Twenty-Three Permits Renewed; Five DUCs Reported As Completed; EMEP Acquires Certain Enerplus Assets -- July 6, 2022

WTI: $98.35.

Active rigs: 45 or thereabouts.

Seven new permits, #39064 - #39070, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (4); Whiting (3)
  • Fields: Tioga (Mountrail); Foreman Butte (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for two TI-Hanson wells and two TI-Fossaa wells, all in SESE 7-158-94; 
      • to be sited 415 FSL and between 276 FEL and 375 FEL:
    • Whiting has permits for three Safely Federal wells, SWNE 7-150-103; 
      • to be sited, between 1854 FNL and 1875 FNL and between 2003 FEL and 2090 FEL

Twenty-three permits renewed:

  • BR (17): a Bailey-George permit in McKenzie County; two George permits in McKenzie County; three Kirklandfill permits in McKenzie County; three Morganfill permits in McKenzie County; four Ole permits in McKenzie County; four Muri permits in McKenzie County;
  • Hunt Oil (5): four Smoky Butte permits in Williams County and one Oakland permit in Mountrail County;
  • Enerplus: one Fort Berthold permit in Dunn County
  • Lime Rock Resources: one State B permit in Dunn County
  • Liberty Resources: one Herseth W permit in Burke County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, all CLR wells:

  • 38360, 1,456, CLR, Springfield FIU 10-8H1,
  • 38361, 1,337, CLR, Springfield FIU 9-8H,
  • 38362, 1,008, CLR, Springfield FIU 8-8H1,
  • 38363, 1,063, CLR, Springfield FIU 7-8H,
  • 38516, 1,458, CLR, Thorp Federal 6-28H,

Change of operator: about 50 wells from Enerplus to EMEP Operating, LLC.  EMEP tracked here.

CLR Hartman Wells Updated; Two Wells With Signifiant Jump In Production -- July 6, 2022

The CLR Hartman wells are tracked here

Because the NDIC GIS map is not yet up I don't have any idea what might be going on.

But note the significant increase in production in these two wells:

  • 27450, 348, CLR, Hartman 8-28H1, 30 stages; 6.2 million lbs, t10/14; cum 214K 12/19; cum 237K 5/21; cum 247K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202231266327173715162612260
BAKKEN4-2022282450250428737964517
BAKKEN3-2022313186306542057713980
BAKKEN2-2022241939171432695912830
BAKKEN1-20221000100
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-202100160000
BAKKEN7-202121100115281260160
BAKKEN6-202130202308274416540
BAKKEN5-2021317157137947503752
BAKKEN4-2021307968198658985370
  • 27451, 254, CLR, Hartman 9-28H2, 30 stages; 6 million lbs, t10/14; cum 144K 12/19; cum 150K 5/21; cum 155K 5/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2022311453147751066082150
BAKKEN4-202227129311543855429972
BAKKEN3-2022311351475329401280
BAKKEN2-20222623020341554301060
BAKKEN1-20221001100
BAKKEN12-202100520000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-2021193203191018373520
BAKKEN7-2021263153801303363520
BAKKEN6-20213076274417538514890

For The Cat Lovers Among The Bakken Readers -- July 6, 2022

Just checking the walls: link here.

**********************************
American Agriculture

Link here.

Might this impact prices at the grocery store, inflationary pressure?

Is oil next?

WTI 3-2-1 crack spread, a measure of refinery profitability, has plummeted some 35% over the last couple weeks. It will translate into lower gas prices should it stick.
The power of the presidential pulpit.  

Ovintiv To Sell Portion Of Its Bakken Assets; Increase Cash Return To Shareholders -- July 6, 2022

Link here.

  • seller: Ovintiv
  • buyer: two "counterparties"
  • deal:
    • $250 million
    • "portions of its (Ovintiv's) assets located in the Uinta and Bakken basins
  • combined assets being sold:
    • 5,000 boepd, mostly oil and condensate (4,900 bbls)
    • $250 million / 5,000 boepd = $50,000 / flowing bbl
  • starting immediately for the 3Q22:
    • Ovintiv will increase its returns to shareholders to 50% of free cash flow  after base dividends
    • but note: cash returns in the third quarter are anticipated to be delivered through share buybacks
  • in the Bakken:
    • apparently about 88 wells, located mainly in Richland County, MT
    • about 30 miles from Ovintiv's primary Bakken position

Derecho! July 6, 2022

This storm caught the attention of NPR and Fox!

I thought I had mentioned "derecho" more than once on the blog, but maybe not. 

This is all I could find, from July 3, almost exactly ten years ago:

If you want a glimpse of some of the worse of global warming, scientist suggest taking a look at US weather in recent weeks.

Horrendous wildfires, Oppressive heat waves. Devastating droughts. Flooding from giant deluges. And a powerful freak storm called a derecho.

And, that of course, reminded me of something Mark Perry had followed back then:

But if you are still inclined to take the mainstream media's word for it, check this out: total US CO2 emissions will probably fall to levels not seen since 1991, and they would fall further if faux environmentalists would get trucks and trains hauling oil off the road by supporting the safest way to transport oil: pipelines. The link is to CarpeDiem.com.  Go to the link to read commentary from others. I always enjoy the comments. 

And that led me down the proverbial rabbit hole:

  • US energy-related CO2 emissions rose 6% in 2021 -- EIA;
    • but CO2 emissions in 2020 dropped to what we saw in 1975 after peaking in 2007
  • the Mark Perry post, July 2, 2012 (linked above)
  • of the emitteers, per capita:
    • the US, among the developed western countries, is worse, at 16 tons per capita (Tennessee Ernie Ford used to sing about this -- 16 Tons)
    • Germany comes in at 9 tons per capita
    • China is even less, and, per capita, doing very, very well, I might add, at only 7 tons per capita
    • the UK is down to less than 6 tons per capita, and, perhaps, most surprising,
    • India is near the bottom of the list (good) at less than 2 tons per capita

****************************
Schadenfreude

Not that regular readers need to be reminded but it's always entertaining.

Only because they listened to a teenager from Sweden.

Link here


First question: where does VW manufacture most of its automobiles? I don't know.

*********************************
France Nationalizes Their Country's
Largest Electricity Company

Links everywhere but here are two;

EDF: wiki entry.

  • already largely owned by the French state, so not sure if this is a big story or not
  • in 2009, EDF was the world's largest producer of electricity
  • at one time, 56 active nuclear reactors spread over 18 sites
  • provides electricity worldwide

****************************
In Cold Blood

Witnessed by not less then twenty bystanders, with a barrage of shots from two handguns, in broad twilight, it still took three years to get a conviction. 

It took the jury six hours over two days to reach a verdict. 

The trial began Wednesday, June 15, 2022, and the verdict was announced today, July 6. I guess the holidays delayed the trial. 

Also charged: felon in possession of a gun. Actually he had at least two. 

Shot multiple times, apparently shot "ten or eleven times" (that needs to be fact-checked) from (literally) head to foot. [Apparently, the exact number of shots entering the body was never determined. If assume the maximum would have been twelve unless the shooter stopped to re-load.]

The coroner, on the stand, said that "most likely" cause of death was due to gunshot wound.

The question facing the jurors was whether the individual who pulled the trigger did it on purpose or whether it was accidental. 

"Gun control legislation" in this country seems to be the least of our problems. The enforcement of those laws in court seems to be low-hanging fruit.

Off The Net -- But One Last Story -- July 6, 2022

From a reader, thank you.

Link here.

Amazon partners with Grubhub.

  • Amazon Prime gets Grubhub for free for one year (some restrictions)
  • Uber stock falls more than 3% on announcement
  • DoorDash plunged as much as 9%

We live minutes from several Amazon fulfillment centers that surround DFW (north Texas airport), and Amazon Prime vans are in our apartment complex throughout the day. Generally speaking, we can expect four vans in the morning and then another half dozen throughout the day. That is no hyperbole. I do believe Amazon vans are the #1 logo-ed vans in the DFW area. I cannot think of any other company that has as many vehicles on the road as Amazon / Amazon Prime. 

We also have a huge number of Teslas in the area. 

Much more later.

Too Scary To Check; But Other Than That, Have A Great Day -- July 6, 2022

US recession: unfortunately for most, this article is behind a paywall.

  • it's a very, very long article
  • written by one of the better WSJ analysts; generally doesn't write but rather edits
  • "If the US is in a recession, it's a very strange one."

The U.S. economy has experienced 12 recessions since World War II, and each one included two features: Economic output contracted and unemployment rose.

Today, something highly unusual is happening. Economic output fell in the first quarter and signs suggest it did so again in the second. Yet the job market showed little sign of faltering during the first half of the year. The jobless rate fell from 4% last December to 3.6% in May.

It is the latest strange twist in the odd trajectory of the pandemic economy, and a riddle for those contemplating a recession. If the U.S. is in or near one, it doesn’t yet look like any other on record.

Analysts sometimes talked about “jobless recoveries” after past recessions, in which economic output rose but employers kept shedding workers. The first half of 2022 was the mirror image—a “jobful” downturn, in which output fell and companies kept hiring. Whether it will spiral into a fuller and deeper recession isn’t known, though a growing number of economists believe it will.

Krugman: Paul -- also doesn't see definition of stagflation holding up which requires a high unemployment rate, and the 10-year Treasury yield is falling. Fast. Today: the yield is below 2.8% -- at 2.794% -- recall: 3% yield for the TYT is the threshold for disaster -- CNBC talking heads.

Krugman posted a FRED graph to support his case. I won't post the link; not worth the time. But six months to a year from now economists will declare a recession or not.

EU: declares natural gas a "green energy." Greta goes ballistic. 

EVs: inexplicably, the EVs (except for Ford and GM) had a great day yesterday, but it looks like Tesla will give up some of those gains today. 

Looking at the EVs, we know that ELMS recently filed for bankruptcy protection. I was unaware that Canoo (GOEV) has a similar problem -- a liquidity problem. I guess they call it a liquidity problem: not even cash to cover expenses. This is from a month ago, which I had missed. I was also unaware that Canoo was considering moving its headquarters to Bentonville and create an R&D center in Fayetteville, but there you go. [Canoo is now headquartered in Bentonville, AK.]

But there's more, from caranddrive.com, December 20, 2021:

The EV startup Canoo has shown off three podlike vehicles—a pickup truck, a delivery van, and a minivan—and said it will now build them in the United States starting next year. 
Canoo has canceled its original plan for contracting production to VDL Nedcar in the Netherlands, in part to avoid supply-chain issues
The electric pods will instead be built at a factory in Arkansas in 2022 before an Oklahoma facility begins production in 2023
American electric-vehicle startup Canoo has shown off three radically styled vehicles over the past few years and is now solidifying plans to put its podlike designs into production. 
Although Canoo had originally planned to outsource production of its vehicles to VDL Nedcar, a Dutch contract manufacturer, those plans have been scrapped. 
Instead, Canoo aims to build its first vehicles next year at a new plant in Arkansas—where it recently moved its headquarters—before a factory in Pryor, Oklahoma, goes online in late 2023. 

Canoo: bringing "construction" back to the US. Bloomberg says the same thing: the construction of new manufacturing facilities in the US has soared 116% over the past year, dwarfing the 10% gain on all building projects combined. Most of this is occurring in the southwest (not California) but particularly in Texas and Arizona. I was surprised to see Canoo build a factory in Oklahoma. Oklahoma?

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: too afraid to look.

Active rigs: 43 or thereabouts.

Wednesday, July 6, 2022: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 345 for the year  

  • 38245, conf, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H, 

RBN Energy: is IMO 2020's relevance for crude oil markets making a comeback?

Way back in 2019, just about everyone in the refining world was talking about IMO 2020, the International Maritime Organization’s soon-to-be-implemented rule requiring much lower sulfur emissions from most ocean-going ships. A lot of forecasters were anticipating that major market dislocations would result — things like $50/bbl-plus diesel crack spreads, oversupply of high-sulfur fuel oil, and ultra-wide differentials between light and heavy crude oils. They did, but only briefly, in the last few months of 2019. The implementation of IMO 2020 turned out to be pretty much a non-event, and for much of 2020 and 2021, people didn’t think much about the new bunker fuel rule. Lately, things have been changing, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.

Beginning January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandated that most ships powered by fuel oil (the most common bunker fuel) use products containing less than 0.5% sulfur (S) by weight, a significant reduction from the previous specification of 3.5% S by weight. (An alternative for shipping companies is sticking with high-sulfur fuel oil and installing an onboard “scrubber” to remove most of the sulfur from the ship’s exhaust stack.) This new rule is colloquially referred to as “IMO 2020.”